What’s that wretched smell filling my nostrils? It’s the stench emitted by the garbage pitching on tonight’s slate. There aren’t many pitchers to feel comfortable rolling with, and while that would typically lead me toward a GPP heavy game mix tonight, the lineup I’ve fleshed out for this one has a cash games feel. I opted not to take chances at pitcher while surrounding a couple of the “safe” arms on this slate with some chalky bats. My disdain for the other pitchers on the slate means there are no honorable mentions at that position. This group has upside, so there’s nothing wrong with sticking it in GPPs, but I threw ownership concerns out the window in favor of balance and safety — or at least what feels like safety in an incredibly volatile sport. The honorable mentions for hitters are scarce, and I was very conscious of salary when making suggestions. The idea behind these particular honorable mentions are that they’re fallback choices in the event one of the suggested players gets a day off. If that proves to be the case, the honorable mention options will provide you some wiggle room to adjust your roster while still checking in under the salary cap.
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Pitcher
Carlos Carrasco (CLE): $10,900 @ White Sox
Carrasco is the most talented pitcher on the slate, and he’s also the biggest betting favorite at -190, according to Pinnacle. The game’s over/under total is only eight runs, and the White Sox offer an unimposing group of hitters for right-handed pitchers to face as you can see here. In addition to the poor results against right-handed pitchers since 2014 for the Pale Hose’s active lineup that I linked to, they rank 28th in wRC+ (69) against them this year, according to FanGraphs, and they’re tied with the Cubs for the sixth highest strikeout rate (24.7%). Carrasco has struck out 26.0% of the batters he’s faced this year, so he’s more than capable of taking advantage of this juicy matchup. His 2.33 ERA isn’t fully supported by his advanced pitching metrics, but his 3.26 xFIP and 3.35 SIERA are pretty darn good. The 30-year-old’s swinging strike percentage (SwStr%) of 10.2% is down 1.8% from last year, and it’s a tiny bit below the league average of 10.4%, but he’s offset that by reducing his hard-hit ball (Hard%) by nearly 10% from last year. The trade off has paid off for his ERA, and Carrasco is easily the top pitching selection, and a salary that’s $1,900 more than the second most expensive pitcher supports that assertion.
Jerad Eickhoff (PHI): $8,300 vs. Braves
Eickhoff remains giving to left-handed batters with a .340 wOBA ceded to them this season, but Freddie Freeman is the only one in Atlanta’s lineup that stands out as a trouble spot (sorry, Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis, you’re not fear-inducing lefties). The Braves have struggled this year against righties and rank 19th in wRC+ (95), and their 21.7% K% offers some modest strikeout potential for Eickhoff. Looking at a larger sample, only four members of the active roster have a wRC+ above 100 against right-handed pitchers since 2014, and only Freeman’s is north of 120. Eickhoff is once again beating his advanced pitching metrics, but that’s nothing new for him. A glance at his numbers going back to the minors reveals multiple seasons of recording low BABIP marks, so there might be something to him beating the advanced metrics beyond the lazy argument of good luck. The 26-year-old righty gets a boost from pitching at home tonight. He’s been much better at home in his young career with a 2.99 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 5.8% BB%, and 23.5% K% in 135.1 innings pitched at Citizens Bank Park. He and the Phillies are -123 favorites, and the game’s over/under total of only eight runs is tied for the lowest on the slate. I’ll sacrifice one of the marked up bats at Coors Field to secure Eickhoff as my SP2.
Catcher
Cameron Rupp (PHI): $3,100 vs. Braves
Buster Posey will likely be popular, but this is a punt position for me. There are no honorable mentions, so if Rupp is rested, feel free to target another punt option. As for Rupp, he’s a bargain at $3,100 against Jaime Garcia. The veteran is not striking many batters out in his first year with the Braves, and righties have hammered him for a .362 OBP, .596 slugging, and .408 wOBA thus far this year after tallying a .339 OBP, .459 slugging, and .342 wOBA last season. Since 2014, Rupp owns a .346 OBP, .259 ISO, and 140 wRC+ against southpaws, and his power will be bolstered by a right-handed batter park factor of 127 at CBP, according to StatCorner’s three-year rolling average.
First Base
Eric Thames (MIL): $4,100 vs. Cardinals
Thames is terrorizing opposing pitchers in his return to MLB, and his salary hasn’t come anywhere close to catching up to his production. As added bonuses, he’ll get a lift from great park factors for hitters at Miller Park and squaring off with Lance Lynn. Lynn’s allowed a .331 wOBA to lefties in his return from Tommy John, and he’s the owner of a .341 wOBA allowed to them in his career. Lynn’s ability to miss bats against lefties has steadily declined and bottomed out at a 10.5% K% this year, and pitching to contact is ill advised when facing Thames. The Cardinals’ righty also has struggled with below average control against left-handed batters allowing a 10.5% BB% this year and 12.3% BB% in his career, providing Thames another path to point scoring — albeit lower point scoring.
Honorable Mention
Second Base
Jose Ramirez (CLE): $3,900 @ White Sox
Ramirez is validating his 2016 breakout with a strong start to this year. Since last year, the switch-hitter has a .368 OBP, .166 ISO, and 130 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. He was initially slated to face James Shields, but Shields hit the disabled list last night. At the time of writing, RotoWorld is speculating Mike Pelfrey could fill Shields’ rotation spot. It almost doesn’t seem possible that Ramirez could get an upgrade from facing someone other than Shields, but Pelfrey would offer just that. Pelfrey allowed a .405 OBP, .518 slugging, and .394 wOBA to left-handed batters last year.
Honorable Mention
Third Base
Nolan Arenado (COL): $5,100 vs. Giants
I was close to suggesting my honorable mention selection at the hot corner, but Arenado is going to be so chalky, and he’s loaded with insane upside tonight, so the risk isn’t worth it. Matt Moore is one of the biggest velocity losers this year, as Mike Petriello pointed out on Twitter, and diminished stuff doesn’t bode well for his chances of success at Coors Field. Moore mostly held righties in check last year, but this year he’s coughed up a .468 slugging and .344 wOBA to them. That’s simply not going to cut it against a hitter with a .415 OBP, .308 ISO, .431 wOBA, and 140 wRC+ against lefties at Coors Field since 2015.
Honorable Mention
Shortstop
Trevor Story (COL): $4,300 vs. Giants
Moore’s diminished velocity, his struggles with right-handed batters, and the park factors at Coors Field all support using Story, too. The game’s over/under total of 11 runs is 1.5 runs higher than the next highest on the slate, and the Rockies are -113 favorites. They’re projected to hang a crooked number, and Story offers another form of exposure. The sophomore shortstop has just 67 plate appearances at home against lefties in his career, but he’s made them count with a .379 OBP, .375 ISO, .421 wOBA and 132 wRC+. At the same price in the same game, Brandon Crawford came up just short of getting the nod.
Honorable Mention
Outfield
David Peralta (ARI): $3,600 vs. Dodgers
Why was I tempted to swerve off of super-chalky Arenado at the hot corner? In part, it’s because of Kenta Maeda‘s struggles in his second year in MLB, namely against lefties. While I won’t be attacking Maeda’s shortcomings against lefties at the hot corner, I’ll do so with Arizona’s number-two hitter against righties, Peralta. Maeda has coughed up a .371 OBP, .552 slugging, and .384 wOBA to left-handed batters this year. Peralta’s stumbled out of the gate following an injury-shortened campaign, but he has a .352 OBP, .202 ISO, and 129 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers since reaching the Majors in 2014. Add in the hitter-friendly conditions at Chase Field and a game over/under total of nine runs, and it’s easy to forgive Peralta’s slow start.
Marcell Ozuna (MIA): $3,500 @ Padres
Prior to this year, Ozuna was a few ticks below average against right-handed pitchers with a 96 wRC+. He did make hard contact against righties with a 34.6% Hard%, but a 32.8% FB% didn’t allow him to make the most of the quality contact. This year, Ozuna is taking off. In 49 plate appearances against righties, he has a .347 OBP, .348 ISO, 174 wRC+, 37.1% FB%, and 60.0% Hard%. The Hard% is bonkers and obviously unsustainable, but he’s hitting the ball in the air more often, and he’s kicked his Pull% up 5.3%. The result is five dingers from Ozuna. Ignore the negative stigma still attached to Petco Park, it has right-handed batter park factors of 101 for homers and 101 for runs. Multiple sentences into Ozuna’s analysis, and I still haven’t mentioned that he’s facing Jered Weaver! Weaver hasn’t completely embarrassed himself yet, but it feels more like a when not if case of blowing up in the future. He’s coming off of a season in which he allowed a .337 OBP, .529 slugging, and .365 wOBA to right-handed batters. Steamer and ZiPS projections aren’t fooled by three non-disastrous starts, and you shouldn’t be either.
Hunter Renfroe (SD): $3,200 vs. Marlins
Renfroe is more of a boom-or-bust type than I typically like to roster on cash games team. In order to get the key building blocks on this roster, though, I needed to make some salary concessions somewhere, and OF3 was one of those places. Renfroe has top-shelf pop with a .261 ISO against righties, and opposing pitcher Dan Straily is a fly-ball pitcher. Straily allowed a 49.7% FB% to righties last year and has allowed a 52.9% FB% to them this year. Straily allowed 21 homers and a .463 slugging to the 434 right-handed batters he faced last year. The pickings are slim for $3,200 outfielders or cheaper, and while the floor isn’t ideal for Renfroe, but his ability to reach the seats gives him some potential to erase a disappointing effort from one of the “safer” picks if he runs into one.
Honorable Mentions
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
