Nick Pollack from Pitcher List here for a weekly segment at FantasyPros where I’ll be looking at the deeper options available in your leagues, highlighting my 10 favorite pitchers each week that could quickly return value despite hanging out on your waiver wire. We’ve set the threshold to under 15% owned according to ESPN, leaving a vast majority of leagues to take advantage of these arms that will cost you nothing and possibly return plenty.
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Graduated since last week: Joe Ross, Mike Clevinger, Tyler Anderson, Jordan Montgomery, German Marquez, Scott Feldman.
10. Mike Foltynewicz: 13.7% owned
Folty is far from a stable commodity this deep into the season and while his strikeout rate has fallen, there’s no denying he’s capability of lighting up the scoreboard on a given night, featuring K/9 marks above 8.00 in each of the last two seasons. It’s a risky play that could pay sneaky dividends.
9. Francisco Liriano: 8.1% owned
The theme of these articles is very often risk vs. reward and Liriano has been the king of the title for many seasons. When scraping the bottom of the barrel in deep leagues, high upside is king, however, and Liriano’s ability to strikeout double-digit batters has never been in question. The problem is deciphering which evenings he’s going to show up and when to let him sit on the wire. He’s expected to come back from the DL this week, and while I would be cautious to start him right off the bat, I’d be keeping an eye on him if I needed a possible big splash.
8. Dinelson Lamet: 3.7% owned
There are two things to know about Lamet. First, his blistering heater that touches above 95 mph and heavy Slider will make him a strikeout contender every evening he pitches. Lamet held a K/9 above 11.00 across 24 starts in Double-A and Triple-A. Be wary though, high walk totals have always come his way, making it tough to believe Lamet can be effective deep into games, given him a hard time to express his elite strikeout rate. There will be 7+ strikeout outings, but many high WHIP and ERA totals with it.
7. Tyler Chatwood (COL): 11.7% owned
It’s hard to truly endorse a Colorado starter, but Chatwood has plenty of expected starts left in the first half that can easily work in his favor, including dates in San Diego and Pittsburgh in the near future. This is more of a short-term play than long. Consider Chatwood as a cheap Win option for the next few weeks.
6. Jharel Cotton: 6.3% owned
Cotton is back from a minor league stint and may be a solid play for those looking long term. While his stuff isn’t in question (featuring an excellent Cutter and elite Changeup), it remains to be seen if Cotton can bring his 3.92 BB/9 down to the near 2.50 mark showcased through his minor league career. I wouldn’t bank on him becoming profitable in the next week or two, but Cotton should be well owned by the end of the season.
5. Luis Perdomo (SD): 3.5% owned
It has been a rough schedule for Perdomo, enduring both the Diamondbacks and Nationals in his last two starts. Still, his xFIP sits at 3.25 with a 8.72 K/9, 2.70 BB/9 and an elite 65.9% groundball rate. Pair those numbers with a sub 30% hard contact mark and it paints a picture of an underappreciated arm that could breakout sooner rather than later. Just be careful when tossing him against elite offenses, such as heading to Arizona next week.
4. Jimmy Nelson: 14.7% owned
Like Foltynewicz, Nelson is a high risk/high reward pitcher, featuring four games of at least eight strikeouts mixed with four games of three our fewer punchouts as well. His 3.40 FIP and 2.56 BB/9 hints at a more consistent road ahead, and in a barren wire a coin flip may be better than anyone else will be able to offer you.
3. Junior Guerra: 11.7% owned
Guerra had himself a tremendously impressive rookie season in 2016, boasting a 2.81 ERA and 1.13 WHIP as a 31-year-old for the Brewers. After falling to injury in the first week of the season, Guerra is back on the hill and providing an opportunity to those in need of an arm after owners dumped him for his seven week hiatus. Don’t expect anything close to his current 8.35 K/9, but a 7.50 – 8.00 K/9 mixed with manageable ERA and WHIP rates are well within reach, making him a very serviceable arm in any deep league.
2. Tyson Ross (TEX): 7.2% owned
Ross looked far from sharp in his latest Triple-A outing, allowing six runs with six hits and five walks in 3.1 frames. He was expected to return this week, though this might delay his debut in a Ranger uniform for another turn in the rotation. Additionally, the data we have on pitchers returning to the game from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome dictate plenty of struggles ahead for the former San Diego ace (not to mention, Matt Harvey’s struggles thus far in 2017 are quite apparent). Still, there isn’t another pitcher on the wire that can have the large impact like Ross can, as he holds a career 3.38 FIP with an 8.49 K/9 and 56.0% groundball rate. I’d love to take a chance on his upside and see where this goes.
1. Joe Biagini (TOR): 5.0% owned
Let’s look at some quick numbers detailing Biagini’s five-game stint as a starter: 3.20 FIP, 7.71 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, 62.5% groundball rate and just 13.9% line drives allowed. Throw in just 26.0% hard contact and a .268 BABIP that gets evened out by a 62.0% LOB rate and everything points to a sleeper arm that has survived the waiver wire scrape thus far. Yes, there are concerns regarding his security as a starter given J.A. Happ and Francisco Liriano returning shortly, though with Aaron Sanchez’s questionable injury status, Biagini could find himself in the role for a long time – who knows how the rotation shapes up when Sanchez is ready to return. Additionally, his low IPs is trending in the right direction as he was stretched out to 95 pitches in his last start. We could be seeing consistent six-inning outings. With his numbers, there’s plenty of value to be had.
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Nick Pollack is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, find his work at PitcherList.com and follow him @ThePitcherList.
