10 Early Undervalued Players by ADP (Fantasy Football)

Jun 14, 2017

Stefon Diggs was banged up last season but his numbers were better than you would think

We’re moving into mid-June and while some of you won’t be drafting for another 2+ months, it’s never too early to start thinking about strategy or players to target. After all, there are people out there drafting right now and thanks to them, we have a consensus of average draft positions (ADP).

Naturally, like every year, we see certain players being drafted lower than we think they should be. That’s okay, because passing the discount over to us is completely welcome. Below, our featured experts are giving their take on why the discount is too good to pass up why you should look deeper at the numbers and situations.

Q1. Name the QB you believe is the most undervalued according to our early QB ADP Rankings and tell us why you feel that way.

Philip Rivers (LAC): Consensus ADP – QB16
“Rivers figures to be a steal at QB16. Since 2008 Rivers has averaged over 4,300 passing yards and 30 touchdowns per year. Over the last 4 years, Rivers has two QB6 finishes, with two other finishes inside the top-10. With the Chargers adding Russell Okung and drafting Forrest Lamp, his offensive line should be the best it’s been in years. Add in the return of Keenan Allen and the drafting of Mike Williams and Rivers also figures to have more weapons available to him in 2017. It’s hard for me to see a scenario where Rivers doesn’t return value at that price.”
– Scott Smith (RotoViz)

“I don’t like talking up and lauding Philip Rivers, but the guy just isn’t receiving enough attention heading into another football season. Aside from Drew Brees, Rivers is the most consistent fantasy quarterback. He has achieved nine straight seasons of QB1 numbers, including finishing as the QB6 last year despite leading the NFL in interceptions (21). Rivers has more than enough weapons to continue that streak, too. His ADP of QB16 just doesn’t make sense since he hasn’t finished as a backup fantasy quarterback since 2007.”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts)

Tyrod Taylor (BUF): Consensus ADP – QB19
“I initially wanted to say Andy Dalton, however, I’m going to go with the guy I’ve been promoting since the start of 2016, and that is Tyrod Taylor. It hard to find value at the quarterback position, though despite finishing No. 7 on a point per game basis over each of the last two years, Taylor is still somehow undervalued. He managed to finish as a top-seven quarterback last year, despite throwing to Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin, and Walt Powell for much of the year. Not just that, but his team threw fewer (474 attempts) than any other team in the league. Realizing they needed to surround him with better weapons, they drafted Zay Jones with their second selection in the draft. Not just that, but Sammy Watkins has reportedly looked good in OTA’s. The only way Taylor doesn’t finish as a top-12 quarterback is if he’s hurt.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Andy Dalton (CIN): Consensus ADP – QB20
“Dalton is comically low at QB20. First, he has never finished worse than QB18 in his career (and that was when he only played in 12 full games). Second, he lost Sanu and Gabriel last year in the offseason, followed up by losing A.J. Green and Gio Bernard in the season. Now, they add John Ross and Joe Mixon, get Green back healthy, and have Tyler Boyd / Brandon LaFell going into year two in the system. Dalton should be near the top 10.”
– Jason Moore (The Fantasy Footballers)

Q2. Name the RB you believe is the most undervalued according to our early RB ADP Rankings and tell us why you feel that way.

Samaje Perine (WAS): Consensus ADP – RB44
“If you were to combine the starting running backs for the Redskins last year (Matt Jones/Robert Kelley), you’d have wound up with these statistics: 267 carries, 1,164 yards, and nine touchdowns. That would have been the seventh-most carries, eighth-most yards, and tied for the eighth-most touchdowns. In comes Samaje Perine, who they drafted at the start of the fourth-round. He’s a better bruiser than Kelley, is much more elusive, and he’s shown the ability to catch passes out of the backfield, something Kelley really struggled with in 2016. The only way you’ll survive in the NFL as a non-pass catcher, is to be an elite 1-2 down option, and Kelley simply isn’t good enough. There are already rumors coming out that Perine’s going to open the season as the starter. While I don’t believe the rumors just yet, it’s only a matter of time before they hand him the keys to the backfield. ”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Terrance West (BAL): Consensus ADP – RB51
“West is not going to light the world on fire and be a top 12 back… but he can absolutely be a top 24 running back considering last year he finished as the 23rd best RB. Kenneth Dixon is suspended the first four games and West is for some reason being drafted as the 51st running back. Yes, Danny Woodhead came to town, but that was in replacement of Kyle Juszczyk‘s role more so than West’s. It’s very rare to be able to draft a starting running back at pick 147 and yet that’s where you’ll find Terrance West.”
– Jason Moore (The Fantasy Footballers)

DeAndre Washington (OAK): Consensus ADP – RB66
“It’s easy to fall in love with the return story of Marshawn Lynch. History does not favor Beastmode however. Running backs returning after a year off haven’t faired well upon returning to the field. DeAndre Washington comes in at the RB66 and seems to be a value at that price. Washington was on many rookie sleeper lists heading into 2016. While it’s easy to dismiss Washington’s rookie season, he did average 5.4 ypc. If Lynch falters or gets injured, Washington should get the first crack. Getting a player that compares to DeVonta Freeman for next to nothing seems like a good investment.”
– Scott Smith (RotoViz)

Danny Woodhead (BAL): Consensus ADP – RB33
“Woodhead certainly has more allure in PPR formats, but his RB33 ADP is asking to be taken advantage of. When healthy, Woodhead is easily capable of RB2 production in standard leagues — he accomplished RB2 status in 2013 and 2015 with the Chargers. We saw last year how much Joe Flacco likes to dump the ball off, and there will be plenty of targets to go around even with Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman, and Jeremy Maclin. Remember, the targets of Steve Smith, Kamar Aiken, Dennis Pitta, Justin Forsett and Kyle Juszczyk are all available.”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts)

Q3. Name the WR you believe is the most undervalued according to our early WR ADP Rankings and tell us why you feel that way.

Tyrell Williams (LAC): Consensus ADP – WR60
“The top 15 wide receivers from 2016 are all being drafted inside the top 26 wide receivers this year with the exception of one man, Tyrell Williams. He is currently being drafted as the wide receiver SIXTY. He’s going after fliers and hopefuls like Zay Jones, Tyler Locket, and Kevin White. Yes, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are added into the mix, but I cannot imagine the Chargers simply kicking a productive WR to the curb who has proven he can beat NFL defenses. I’ll take my late round flier on a guy who’s already done it before.”
– Jason Moore (The Fantasy Footballers)

“Jeremy Maclin would be an obvious answer sitting at WR49, but that ADP should rise after signing with the Ravens and the 360-plus targets available in Baltimore. Tyrell Williams sits as the WR60 after posting a WR18 PPR season in 2016. Many people may be down on Williams with the return of Keenan Allen and the drafting of Mike Williams, but Tyrell may be the best bet as the cheapest and most healthy option in the San Diego passing game. A repeat of 1,000 yards and 7 touchdowns isn’t out of reach for Williams in 2017.”
– Scott Smith (RotoViz)

Stefon Diggs (MIN): Consensus ADP – WR32
“Despite playing through a multitude of injuries, Diggs somehow managed to finish as the No. 14 wide receiver on a points per game (PPR) basis in 2016, yet he’s being drafted as the 33rd wide receiver off the board. Did you know that there were just six games in which Diggs was not on the injury report in 2016? In those games, he averaged 11.5 targets, 9.3 receptions, 107 yards, and 0.33 touchdowns. That amounts to 22.2 PPR points per game, and keep in mind that he finished as the No. 14 receiver (again, in points per game) with Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph both getting theirs.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Michael Crabtree (OAK): Consensus ADP – WR25
“Believe it or not, but Michael Crabtree was actually Derek Carr’s favorite target in 2016, not Amari Cooper. Crabtree has finished as the WR20 and WR12, respectively, in his two seasons with the Raiders, yet his current ADP stands at WR23. Health isn’t really a concern anymore; he hasn’t missed a game since 2013. Crabtree can be a fringe WR1 option for those wanting to take running backs early. ”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts)

What's your take? Leave a comment

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