There are tons of players who you’ll hear great things about this offseason, the guys who have been vaulting up draft boards as the offseason goes on, similar to the way Christian McCaffrey shot up the NFL Draft board. There is merit to some of those players, sure, but what about the guys that nobody wants to talk about? The guys who are essentially on our “do not draft” list.
Ok, maybe that’s a bit extreme. There is always a scenario in which a player has value. For instance, I’m not a big fan of Breshad Perriman. Does that mean I’d never draft him, regardless of how far he falls? No, because I play in a few leagues where we roster 35 players and every NFL player with a pulse has value in those leagues. But in this series, I’ll be touching on players who really can’t seem to fall far enough for me to draft them. Some shouldn’t be taken anywhere near their current ADP, while others just shouldn’t be drafted in standard 16-round leagues. This is the closest thing to my fantasy football “black book” there is, so let’s take a look at who’s inside of it. Today’s position we’ll be looking at is quarterback.
Complete a mock draft in minutes with our free Draft Simulator 
Cam Newton (CAR) Current Positional ADP: 7
It’s somewhat odd to me that the quarterback who has finished outside the top-16 in two of the last three seasons is still being drafted as high as Newton is. After being concussed last year, Newton played in 11 games, totaling just 212 rushing yards and three touchdowns. That pace over 16 games would’ve finished behind Blake Bortles’ rushing totals in 2016. Over Newton’s six-year career, he’s averaged 3,629 yards and 23 touchdowns as a passer. His closest comparison in 2016 was… Bortles, who threw for 3,905 yards and 23 touchdowns. Did I mention that they extended Jonathan Stewart and drafted Christian McCaffrey? Oh, and they lost Ted Ginn to free agency, his most efficient receiver over the last two years. He’s a great example of a player who has value if he falls in drafts, but due to the name value, he won’t fall nearly enough to where you should consider him.
Derek Carr (OAK) Current Positional ADP: 8
After going through my initial projections, Carr came in as the No. 18 quarterback. It forced me to do a double-take, because I hadn’t ever really disliked Carr. But after looking at his numbers a bit closer, he wasn’t quite the budding star that he’s been passed off as. Removing just one game against the Buccaneers where he scored 35.8 fantasy points on 59 pass attempts (wasn’t a single game outside of that one with more than 45 attempts, just two over 40), Carr averaged just 16.6 fantasy points per game. That number would’ve ranked as the No. 17 quarterback on a per-game basis in 2016. There were actually six games (40 percent of the time) in which he scored fewer than 14 fantasy points, which counts as a bust in my book. Everyone knows the Raiders and the entire AFC West have a brutal schedule for pass attacks, which might be the reason they went out of their way to acquire Marshawn Lynch in free agency. If Carr falls outside of the top 12-14 quarterbacks, I suppose you should consider him, but that’s highly unlikely given his early ADP.
Philip Rivers (LAC) Current Positional ADP: 14
Just because you are a great quarterback in real-life, that doesn’t make you a great fantasy quarterback. I recently wrote the player profile on Rivers (read it here), talking about why he’s like a dinosaur that hasn’t aged well with the game. He’s scored in between 254-287 fantasy points in eight of the last nine seasons. Back in 2007, that would’ve landed him in the top-three quarterbacks, whereas he’d be outside the top-15 with 254 points in 2016. He’s one of the players you shouldn’t draft at all, because you’ll be able to get him for free after his bye in Week 9. If you must draft him, you also need to snag another quarterback, as you won’t want to play him in Week 1 on the road against the Broncos, Week 3 against the Chiefs (hasn’t scored more than 14 points against them in three years), Week 5 on the road against the Giants, Week 7 against the Broncos again, and then Week 8 against the Patriots in New England. He’s firmly on my do-not-draft list, unless of course, you’re in 2QB leagues.
Deshaun Watson (HOU) Current Positional ADP: 20
I wanted to put “just no” for the explanation here, but my editor wouldn’t let that slide. But seriously, he’s being taken as the No. 17 quarterback in ESPN leagues? Are folks not aware that he’s not even considered the favorite to start at quarterback in Week 1 because of how complex Bill O’Brien’s offense is? Rookie quarterbacks almost never live up to the hype, especially when playing behind an offensive line that has some major holes. Seeing him drafted in front of guys who’ve finished as QB1’s before (Blake Bortles, Carson Palmer) makes no sense. Let someone else waste a draft pick on him.
More Players to Avoid
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Tight Ends
Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS
Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
