Each week in this report, I’ll be monitoring the performances of MLB rookies. I will emphasize those rookies who put up especially positive performances, while also taking care to mention rookies who are underperforming expectations. In both cases, I will dig into the underlying stats and attempt the difficult task of projecting forward.
Rookies are typically more unpredictable than their more experienced colleagues, and can, therefore, be a source of great profit in fantasy baseball, or great frustration. Stay tuned to this space every week to find out which newbies should be in the mix for your squad. Check out last week’s Rookie Report to keep up to date on all the hottest youngsters.
Stats are generally current prior to Tuesday’s games, and, as outlined in week 3, any quoted Statcast numbers are directly from Baseball Savant unless otherwise noted.
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Nick Williams (OF – PHI)
First the good news. Williams has, at various points, been considered one of the top prospects in the Rangers’ and Phillies’ farm systems. Entering this year, he was in the top-100 of the FantasyPros Consensus prospect rankings and the top-150 of the Bobby Sylvester rankings. He posted at least average batting lines at every notable minor league stop while also being young for each level. Since getting the call to the big club on June 30th, Williams has slashed .315/.350/.616 with four homers and seems to have played himself into a regular role, or at least the strong side of a platoon. Now for the bad news. Despite his apparent talent, Williams is noted by Eric Longenhagen for his extremely aggressive approach. Indeed, at the Major League level, Williams has swung at 44% of pitches outside of the zone and 58% of pitches overall, both significantly higher than league average. His poor 18.8 SwStr% would rank second highest among qualified batters this year, which suggests that he does not have quite enough bat control to make up for his poor pitch selectivity. While his current 5.0% and 22.5% BB% and K% are not alarmingly poor, it seems likely that Williams’ strikeout rate will head north toward 30%. He will need to be very productive on contact to succeed in the mold of Khris Davis or Miguel Sano. Further, Williams has seen an above-average 62.6% rate of fastballs. As pitchers adjust to his free-swinging tendencies, expect to see more breaking balls thrown to Williams. So, while Nick Williams has displayed elements of his considerable raw talent in his debut, he still has a long way to go to improve his approach. Owners should not expect much more than a .250 AVG with an OPS just over .700 and a handful of homers the rest of the way, but also should not sleep on a plate discipline-fueled breakout at some point in the coming years.
Johan Camargo (SS/2B/3B – ATL)
Profiling as a glove-first utility infielder entering the year, Camargo did not appear on any noted prospect lists. He has appeared in 51 games for the Braves this season, including fairly regular playing time in June and July with the struggles of Dansby Swanson. His lone homer and zero steals are not particularly encouraging, but as a shortstop-eligible player, his .315/.336/.476 slash line has surely been helpful. His .270 xBA and .300 xwOBA suggest that he has been a bit lucky so far on batted-balls. Even regressing to that level of production would be a nice surprise for the Braves given Camargo’s lack of pedigree and lackluster minor league track record. Except for this year in Triple-A, Camargo had not posted an above-average batting line at any stop since rookie ball in 2013. It’s certainly possible that Camargo has taken a real step forward this season, but his somewhat unpredictable playing time and mediocre minor league stats make him a fairly expendable fantasy asset. Still, given the dearth of interesting lower-tier shortstops, desperate owners in deep leagues could do worse than give Camargo a run.
Chad Green (SP/RP – NYY)
Unfortunately, the recent addition of David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle to the Yankees’ bullpen pushed Chad Green into an uncertain mid-inning role. Prior to that trade, though, Green had earned some more looks toward the back end of the bullpen. His 1.56 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 12.05 K/9 put him firmly among the elite relievers in baseball. His 1.1 FanGraphs WAR on the season ties him with fellow middle-man Adam Warren for highest among Yankees’ relievers. His .258 xwOBA is significantly higher than his actual .193 mark, which points toward the likely increase of his current .171 BABIP. Assuming he remains in a bullpen role, Green should post a solid ERA and WHIP while piling up strikeouts. Following the injury to Michael Pineda’s elbow, Green has a chance to pick up a few starts for the Yankees as well. His SP eligibility is also noteworthy. For owners in Holds leagues looking to maximize the number of relievers in their active lineups, Green could be freely available and useful, despite being buried in the current bullpen pecking order.
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Andrew Dominijanni is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @ADominijanni.