Each week in this report, I’ll be monitoring the performances of MLB rookies. I will emphasize those rookies who put up especially positive performances, while also taking care to mention rookies who are underperforming expectations. In both cases, I will dig into the underlying stats and attempt the difficult task of projecting forward.
Rookies are typically more unpredictable than their more experienced colleagues, and can, therefore, be a source of great profit in fantasy baseball, or great frustration. Stay tuned to this space every week to find out which newbies should be in the mix for your squad. Check out last week’s Rookie Report to keep up to date on all the hottest youngsters.
Stats are current prior to Tuesday’s games, and, as noted in week 3, any quoted Statcast numbers are directly from Baseball Savant unless otherwise noted.
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Quick Check-In: Dansby Swanson (SS – ATL)
When last I reviewed Swanson in mid-May, I raised some serious concerns that his struggles were more than simply a slow start. And while he enjoyed a bit of a hot stretch earlier this summer, his season long numbers are still miserable. His .220 AVG is fully backed up by his .221 Statcast xBA. While he’s played fine defense and had been previously given full support by the organization, Swanson now appears to be in a part-time role. Even though the Braves are currently seven games out of the second wild card spot and unlikely to contend this year, it’s hard to argue for allowing Swanson to continue struggling at the major-league level. According to FanGraphs, Swanson has been the third-worst hitter in MLB this year. His strikeout and walk numbers suggest a mature approach, so a minor-league stint may not be necessary, but either way, desperate fantasy owners still hanging onto Swanson can certainly cut bait now.
A bit of an outlier for a young pitcher owing to his 86 mph fastball, Brent Suter has actually been a useful major league player across his two partial seasons, registering a 3.19 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. His career 7.04 K/9 is mediocre, and is only up to 7.59 this year between a mixture of four starts and seven relief appearances. His 2.52 career BB/9 is good, but almost a necessity for a pitcher of his profile. And make no mistake, his profile is that of a contact manager with the need to limit hard hit balls and home runs to succeed. Traditional ERA estimators such as xFIP and SIERA do not strongly factor in contact quality, and therefore believe that Suter is likely to pitch to a 4+ ERA going forward. However, Suter’s .285 xwOBA against suggests that he has effectively limited hard contact so far, and perhaps has even been unlucky on balls in play. Another Statcast data aggregation resource, xStats.org estimates that Suter has earned a 3.61 ERA so far. He will likely always give up a fair number of hits, but fantasy owners should monitor Brent Suter to see if he can sustain a contact management approach in the vein of Kyle Hendricks, or if he can bring his strikeout rate toward the 9.33 K/9 mark he posted at Triple-A this year. We certainly don’t have a large enough sample of innings from Suter to count on the former, but early signs are positive. If the Brewers make a trade to bolster their pitching staff, Suter could find himself in danger of losing his current rotation spot, but until that happens, Suter could make for a sleeper streaming candidate in favorable matchups like his next scheduled start against the Phillies.
Parker Bridwell (SP, RP – LAA)
Bridwell entered the season without much in the way of prospect fanfare, not appearing on either the Fantasy Pros Consensus or Bobby Sylvester prospect rankings and earning only a brief mention in Eric Longenhagen’s survey of the Orioles system. Following an April trade from the Orioles to the Angels, Bridwell has pitched in seven games at the major league level (six starts) and posted a neat 3.18 ERA in 39.2 innings. Unlike the soft-tossing lefty Suter, Bridwell is a right-hander with average 93 mph fastball velocity. While his 10.9% SwStr% this year is nice, he has not translated it to strikeouts, registering only 6.13 K/9. However, his 2.50 BB/9 is good, and relatively reflective of his work in the high minors very recently. Going back to 2015 and 2016, though, Bridwell struggled a bit with his control at the Double-A level. Also unlike Suter, Bridwell has not managed contact effectively, registering a .379 xwOBA against his actual .358 mark. Nearly all of his success so far has been a result of his lofty 91.5% left-on-base rate. Even if his K rate rises to match his swinging strike rate, I expect Bridwell’s walks to rise and his ERA to rise as his LOB% regresses. All-in-all, a high-fours ERA seems likely, and not something fantasy owners should be especially excited to utilize.
Recently acquired from the Brewers, Garrett Cooper all of a sudden found himself starting at first base for the New York Yankees in Fenway Park. While he only registered one hit in the series, he came alive in Monday’s win against the Twins, going 3-4 with two doubles. Cooper certainly seemed to earn this honor with his performance at Triple-A in 2017, batting .366/.428/.652 in 320 plate appearances. He had shown the ability to hit for average before, but had never registered double-digit home runs in a calendar year in the minors. This makes his 17 homers in just 75 games this year all the more shocking. Looking one level deeper, it would seem at first that his Triple-A ballpark in Colorado Springs contributed strongly. The highest altitude ballpark in the country, Security Service Field is certainly a hitter’s haven, but plays surprisingly neutral in terms of home runs, perhaps because of a consistent wind blowing in. It’s difficult to say whether Cooper made a true adjustment to his approach as has been suggested, a marked improvement in strength, or has simply been the beneficiary of an extreme environment in Colorado Springs. Given that MLB is currently a much more homer-friendly environment than Triple-A generally, Cooper could certainly hold onto some of his power gains at this level, especially in Yankee Stadium. Add this to a nice track record of low strikeout rates in the minors, and Cooper could be a nice surprise option to fill the first base role in New York. Despite not appearing on preseason prospect list, Fantasy owners should monitor his progress, and especially his playing time, in the hopes that he could be a surprise fantasy option down the stretch too.
Andrew Dominijanni is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @ADominijanni.
