How many people remember the books Where’s Waldo? Finding a running back sleeper is a lot like trying to find Waldo. He is there somewhere and until you find him it is going to drive you crazy. Don’t drive yourself crazy this offseason looking for your ‘Waldo.’ The objective of this article is to find the 2017 version of Jordan Howard in 2016 or David Johnson in 2015. Running backs who come out of nowhere and win you a fantasy football title.
In order to be considered a ‘Sleeper,’ the running back must have an ADP (Average Draft Position) at or higher than RB24. Check out FantasyPros Running Back Rankings to see who qualifies.
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Ameer Abdullah (DET): ADP RB25
If you have been following my work this NFL offseason you will know that Abdullah is one of my favorite running backs to target in drafts. I already wrote about Abdullah in my 3 Bounce-Bounce Running Backs article in July, and he is still going at a value as RB25 according to FantasyPros consensus rankings. Not that I am angry, but I simply don’t understand how he is still such a value in drafts.
Look at the writing on the wall when it comes to Abdullah. The first game last season he had 17 touches, including 12 carries for 63 yards and five receptions for 57 yards and a touchdown. Then Abdullah was hurt and missed the rest of the season in 2016. It was the first time, though, in Abdullah’s NFL and college career where he didn’t play a full season. Now, the NFL Draft comes around and if the Lions were worried about their running back situation they would have addressed the issue in one of the deepest running back classes in recent memory.
Abdullah’s competition for carries is nothing special. Yes, Theo Riddick is a great pass catcher, but he is also coming off of two wrist surgeries in the offseason. Even with Riddick and Zach Zenner in the backfield, you shouldn’t be worried because neither of them is even close to the type of player that Abdullah is. The Lions didn’t have a single running back with more than 100 carries in 2016 and were ranked dead last in the NFL in rush attempts with 350. That should highlight how they feel about their running backs other than Abdullah.
If you don’t trust me then I’d suggest trusting the Lions coaches. The Detroit Free Press reported Lions running backs coach David Walker confirming that Abdullah will be the Lions featured running back. Abdullah has the talent and his SPARQ (Speed, Power, Agility, Reaction, Quickness) score in the 98th percentile agrees. There is maybe only a handful of current NFL running backs that have the ability to turn broken plays into first downs. There are also maybe only a handful of running back sleepers that can win you your league, and Abdullah is one of them.
Samaje Perine (WAS): ADP RB41
Remember above when I said I want to find the 2017 version of 2016 Jordan Howard? Well, meet Perine, currently going as RB41 in fantasy drafts. Last season, Howard was behind two running backs who were far less talented than he was, and it didn’t take long for the Bears coaching staff to realize that and give Howard a featured role. Does this sound familiar? Think about this. In two seasons, Matt Jones has touched the football 270 times and has eight fumbles. That’s not reliable at all. Rob Kelley was only given a role because Jones couldn’t hang onto the football. Kelley is a glorified fullback who in college was third string behind fellow Tulane running backs Dontrell Hillard and Sherman Badie. Recognize those names? Exactly.
If you’re still not convinced Perine will be the lead back here are some fun facts about Perine from college. He is Oklahoma’s all-time leading rusher with 4,122 career rushing yards. Maybe my favorite stat about Perine is in 2014 he rushed for 427 yards and five touchdowns against Kansas, good for 73 fantasy points in case you were wondering.
Perine is a physical runner who just punishes defenders which matches a Redskins offense that had the sixth-most rushing touchdowns in 2016 with 17. It will only be a matter of time until Perine shows the Redskins he is clearly the best running back on the team and deserves a featured role.
C.J. Prosise (SEA): ADP RB44
This sleeper is more PPR driven, so have that in mind. You will not find another running back with the upside that Prosise has in a PPR league outside the top 40 running backs. Prosise finds himself as RB42 according to FantasyPros consensus rankings.
The Seahawks offensive line is terrible this season, there is no disputing that, but this issue may lead to more dump offs to a very talented running back in space. His breakout game last season where he was able to showcase his talent was against the Patriots in Foxborough where he leads the Seahawks to a win with 19 carries for 66 yards and seven receptions for 87 yards. He was on the verge of another breakout game the following week after he broke a 72-yard touchdown run, but he suffered a scapula injury which ended his season.
Talent has never been the issue for Prosise, it’s been his ability to stay healthy. If Prosise is able to stay healthy he could be a league winner because he is a do-it-all running back with explosion out of the backfield (5.7 YPC) and hands like a wide receiver (17 receptions on 19 targets which is an 89 percent catch rate). Prosise’s limited game action doesn’t qualify him for most stats at the end of the season, but in comparison, LeSean McCoy had the highest catch rate in the NFL with 87.7 percent.
Jamaal Williams (GB): ADP RB50
Raise your hand if you would be interested in a running back who is currently RB50 that has the chance to be the best running back in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense. Meet BYU’s all time leading rusher Jamaal Williams. Williams is a downhill runner who picks up yards and doesn’t waste time getting his legs churning downfield. Nothing too fancy about him, but he is a reliable running back.
A reliable running back is all the Packers need since they have a quarterback like Rodgers. Part of being reliable is being able to protect the quarterback. Williams is by far the best pass blocker out of the running backs on the Packers. Not to mention he had only two lost fumbles in 786 career touches in college. Williams’ tough running attitude and pass blocking skills have earned him some first-team reps this offseason. Ty Montgomery is the starter for now and will be the pass catcher out of the running backs, but Williams may find himself in the early down and goal line role for the Packers. The Packers were the only team in the NFL to draft three running backs which leads me to believe they aren’t totally sold on Montgomery.
What it really comes down to is I want a piece of the Packers’ offense, and if Williams has a chance to be the running back it’s the ultimate lottery ticket. If out-of-shape Eddie Lacy was able to average 5.1 YPC last season then I am confident Williams will be just fine in this high-powered Packers offense.
Jonathan Williams (BUF): ADP RB58
My final sleeper is backup running back on the Buffalo Bills, Jonathan Williams. He is currently RB58 which is a great value considering his role on the team. I understand he is the backup to LeSean McCoy, but that role has been a good one the last two seasons.
- Mike Gillislee (2016): 101 carries – 577 yards (5.7YPC) – eight touchdowns
- Karlos Williams (2015): 93 carries – 517 yards (5.6YPC) – seven touchdowns
Even in games where McCoy played, the backup running backs had flex value some games. Now imagine if an injury were to impact McCoy’s season. McCoy is 29 years old and currently has 2,280 career NFL touches. With this amount of work for an NFL running back we start to see a decline in production and health. If something were to happen to McCoy, Williams would be in a very valuable role on a Bills offense who has ranked first in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns the last two seasons.
Draft Williams with a late pick in your drafts because if McCoy goes down during the season it will be a stampede for Williams on the waiver wire.
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When playing Where’s Waldo or really any game where you are searching for something hard to find, your eyes and mind start to play tricks on you. Don’t let the fantasy season play tricks on you when it comes to these players. They might not be studs for your team right away, but as the season goes on and the running back picture becomes more clear one of these running backs will emerge and be the 2017 Waldo you were targeting in your drafts.
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Mitchell Renz is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mitchell, check out his archive and follow him @mitchellrenz365.
