Being ahead of the pack on a player — or players — who make a leap forward is critical for winning fantasy leagues. Unlike sleepers — which, let’s be honest, don’t really exist in the internet age of information — breakout players can be found anywhere in a draft. In order to be considered a breakout play for this piece, a player simply has to kick their production up to a previously unseen level. For some of the listed players below, that means going from a fantasy irrelevant player to a relevant one. For others, it means improving from moderately useful to a core contributor on a fantasy squad.
ADP referenced is FantasyPros consensus ADP.
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Byron Buxton (OF – MIN): 58 ADP
Buxton’s the only player in this piece in the top 100 in ADP. The former top prospect in all of baseball has encountered some bumps along his development, and that included hitting just .147/.256/.176 with a 37.2% K% in April last year. The Twins exercised patience with their uber-toolsy outfielder, and their patience was rewarded. From May 2 through the end of the regular season, Buxton hit .272/.325/.454 with 16 homers, 26 stolen bases, a 6.7% BB%, and 27.9% K%, according to FanGraphs. The youngster’s strikeout rate remained troublesome, but his 30.9% O-Swing%, 67.4% Z-Swing%, and 82.8% Z-Contact% from May through the end of the year weren’t too shabby relative to the respective 2017 league averages of 29.9% O-Swing%, 66.7% Z-Swing%, and 85.5% Z-Contact%. If Buxton is able to further hone his plate discipline numbers, there’s ample upside for him to cutback his strikeout rate. After swatting 16 long balls and stealing 29 bases last year, a 20/30 HR/SB season is rather attainable. The power/speed combo is alluring and worth drafting at his current ADP even if his still developing contact and plate discipline create batting average risk.
Trevor Bauer (SP – CLE): 133 ADP
Bauer’s 2017 started miserably with a 5.24 ERA in the first half, but it ended on a high note. In the second half, he spun a 3.01 ERA (3.68 FIP, 3.53 xFIP, and 3.69 SIERA), 1.31 WHIP, 7.5% BB%, and 26.7% K%. The righty’s surge coincided with incorporating a slider into his repertoire. Bauer’s no longer throwing the same slider he closed 2017 with, and he’s spent the offseason developing a new slider that’s been unleashed regularly in Spring Training. The righty has made five starts spanning 18.1 innings this spring. His 5.40 ERA and 1.47 WHIP are nothing to write home about, but it’s important to remember he’s been working on his new offering. Furthermore, he’s struck out 25 batters and walked five this spring. The third overall pick in the 2011 MLB Amateur Draft enters this year on the rise after last year’s finish, and his new slider gives him a potentially devastating offering to complement his filthy curve.
Eugenio Suarez (3B – CIN): 200 ADP
Ryan Bloomfield of Baseball HQ recently tweeted out a fun nugget about six players posting first-round value from 2014-17 with an ADP of 195-plus, and he asked followers for their guess who could pull the feat this season. I decided to toss my hat in the ring, and Suarez was my selection. Cincinnati’s third baseman has shown major plate discipline growth since sporting a 4.3% BB% in 2015. Last year, his walk rate blew up to 13.3%, and his 24.2% O-Swing% was tied for the 19th lowest among qualified hitters. He did a great job of spitting on offerings out of the zone last year, and he added more thump to his profile, too! Suarez set new highs in homers (26) and ISO (.200). It’s possible there are some more taters lurking around the corner. In the first half of 2017, Suarez had a 31.9% FB% and 31.9% Hard%. In the second half, he tallied a 43.4% FB% and 36.0% Hard%. The in-season fly-ball gains last year bode well for him making the most of a right-handed batter park factor of 1.094 at Great American Ball Park.
Suarez hit .260 with a .309 BABIP last season. Per xStats.org, he was a touch unlucky and had a .314 xBABIP and .265 xAVG. Tack on those five points of average and a few more dingers this year, and a .270-plus average isn’t out of the question. The 26-year-old third baseman is coming off of a season in which he stole four bases and was caught stealing five times, but the year before, he stole 11 bases in 16 attempts. As I noted in the Stolen Base Overview, Cincinnati’s manager Bryan Price has been extremely aggressive sending runners with four seasons of the Reds ranking in the top five in stolen base attempts. A return to double-digit stolen bases for Suarez isn’t a total pipe dream.
Finally, Suarez scored 87 runs with 82 RBIs last year. There’s room for growth in those categories this year as well! Speedy center fielder Billy Hamilton totaled 628 plate appearances hitting leadoff, and he was miscast in that role with a .299 OBP. Price hasn’t declared Hamilton the club’s leadoff hitter this year. In fact, he’s indicated he’ll probably move Hamilton around the order and use Jesse Winker and Jose Peraza atop the order at times. Remarkably, Peraza actually did a worse job of getting on base than Hamilton last year with a .297 OBP, but he’s tallied a .313 OBP through 799 plate appearances in the Show. Winker is the player who’s worth getting excited about as a table-setter for Suarez. In 795 plate appearances at the Triple-A level split between 2016 and 2017, Winker’s recorded a robust .396 OBP, according to Baseball-Reference. In 2,438 plate appearances in the minors overall, the outfielder has a .398 OBP. In a cup of coffee for the parent club in which he received 137 plate appearances last year, he tallied a .375 OBP. If Suarez were to hit behind Winker and MLB’s OBP leader in 2017 Joey Votto (.454 OBP), the third baseman would have legitimate 100-plus RBI upside. Suarez sorta broke out last year, but there’s a second break out within reach.
Kyle Gibson (SP – MIN): 509 ADP
The last two breakout plays are deep-league specials. Gibson was a first-round pick in the MLB Amateur Draft nearly a decade ago in 2009. He’s the owner of an ugly 4.70 ERA in 730.1 innings in the Majors. Things got ugly enough last year that the righty was optioned to Triple-A Rochester for a start in late July. Gibson made tangible changes upon his return to the parent club, and in 11 starts spanning 63.1 innings upon his recall, Gibson totaled a 3.55 ERA (3.84 FIP, 3.54 xFIP, and 3.79 SIERA), 1.26 WHIP, 5.8% BB%, 22.6% K%, and 11.7% SwStr%. Even bad pitchers can string together good starts, and Gibson’s strung together solid starts previously. However, there’s enough here to roll the dice on his most recent changes sticking.
Dan Vogelbach (1B – SEA): 657 ADP
Vogelbach is the owner of only 44 plate appearances in the Show, so he’s a little different than the other featured players based on that fact alone. He’s a bat-only prospect who’s more designated hitter than first baseman, and with the Mariners trading for Ryon Healy and selecting first baseman Mike Ford in the Rule 5 draft, the deck appeared stacked against him breaking camp with the club entering Spring Training. Vogelbach’s offensive star has lost some of its shine after struggling to translate his minor-league success to the Majors in his very limited opportunity. Instead of simply sticking with what’s worked in the minors but not worked at the highest level to date, Vogelbach’s revamped his swing and approach. The results have been eye-catching in Spring Training. Among qualified hitters, his 1.357 OPS is the highest. He’s tied for seventh with five homers, and he hasn’t lost his elite plate discipline with 10 walks in 57 plate appearances. Just for funsies, check out Vogelbach’s raw power on the following Spring Training homers here, here (to skip past Nelson Cruz‘s homer, jump to 29 seconds), here, and here. The hefty slugger can be left undrafted in standard leagues until he shows something in the regular season. He can even be left undrafted in many larger re-draft leagues, too. However, he should be monitored in those leagues, and he’s not an outrageous last pick or dollar bid in 14-team mixed keeper leagues or larger formats.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
