DraftKings NBA Lineup Advice: Thursday (3/15)

It’s Thursday night and we have a nine-game slate over on DraftKings tonight. There are a couple of up-tempo matchups on the schedule and spots where playoff teams should exploit teams that are in full-tank mode. The Sixers, Hornets, and Jazz are three of these teams on my radar based on their plus matchups. In this write-up, I will mention a few players in these matchups, while also focusing on a few players that go a bit under-owned in tournaments.

With this in mind, I have focused on identifying my two favorite plays, regardless of price, at each position that can give us an edge in tournaments on tonight’s slate.

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Guards

Ricky Rubio (UTA): $7,200 vs. PHX

The Jazz will square off against a tanking Suns team tonight and Rubio is in a great spot to produce. He is coming of a down game against the Pistons on Wednesday, but the matchup and pace of this game should work in Rubio’s favor tonight. On the season, the Suns rank 30^th in DK points allowed to PGs and Elfriid Payton is one of the worst individual defenders at the position, ranking 84^th out of 101 PGs in DRPM. Rubio has also flashed upside over the past four games, putting up a 41.5 DK point game and 54.0 DK point game in the stretch. At a midrange price tag, Rubio has 50 DK point upside in a plus matchup tonight.

CJ McCollum (POR): $7,300 vs. CLE

McCollum routinely flies under the fantasy radar and he usually isn’t the most exciting player to roster, but he makes a lot of sense tonight in a home matchup against the Cavaliers. He has been in great form over the past six games, averaging 39.7 DK points per game. On the Cavaliers side of the ball, Rodney Hood should miss another game, which means Kyle Korver and Jordan Clarkson will see extended run. While Korver is a decent defender statistically, I’m not worried about either player slowing down McCollum, as the Cavs rank 24^th in DK points allowed to SGs as a whole. Additionally, Damian Lillard is “on call” for the birth of his child. If he ends up missing this game, McCollum becomes an absolute lock and one of the top plays on the slate. I will be roster him either way.

Forwards                         

Paul Millsap (DEN): $6,100 vs. DET

Millsap has certainly disappointed over the past two games, averaging 21.0 DK points across 25.1 minutes. Despite this, I still plan on going back to the well on Millsap at this price tag. The Pistons have been freefalling over the past few weeks and got destroyed by the Jazz on Tuesday night. They rank 27^th in DK points allowed to PFs and Blake Griffin ranks 74^th out of 92 PFs in DRPM at the position. He looks like he gave up on the defensive end, which can be seen in this clip from the Jazz game. Currently, Denver is fighting for one of the last playoff spots in the West. If they end up making a push, Paul Millsap will have a lot to do with it. I like him to get back on track in this matchup. He has strong 6x upside on a cheap price tag.

John Collins (ATL): $5,200 vs. CHA

After entering the starting lineup, Collins has let down a lot of people with his so-so fantasy performances and he has only eclipsed 30 DK points three times in the past 12 games. For some reason, I feel like this is a spot where Collins can break out, as the Hornets are ranked 20^th in defensive efficiency against forwards this season. He hasn’t had much success against them this season, but Collins price has dropped $1,000 in the past two weeks. Sometimes in DFS, we have to play the pricing and ownership-leverage game, and this is a spot where he can attack a Hornets team that is weak at power forward with a talented young player who is too cheap and will have single digit ownership. He hasn’t flashed his ceiling in a while, but I think this is the game. Collins is one of my favorite plays at forward in tournaments.

Centers

Andre Drummond (DET): $8,300 at DEN

While I just mentioned a free-falling Pistons team, I’m still willing to roster their players and Andre Drummond is one of my favorite tournament plays tonight. He hasn’t exceeded 43.25 DK points in four straight matchups, but DraftKings has definitely priced him a bit too low for this matchup. This is a player we were rostering for $9,000-$10,000 for a three-week stretch, so the fact that we can get him in the low-$8,000 range is a huge bonus. As a whole, the Nuggets are ranked 21^st in defensive efficiency rating this season and despite a few down games from Drummond, he still has two games of 58+ DK points in tough matchups over the past two and a half weeks. Even against Nikola Jokic‘s defense, Drummond has true 50 DK point upside in this matchup.

Joel Embiid (PHI): $9,700 at NYK

Embiid’s price is a little steep right now, but this is a matchup he should absolutely crush. The Knicks are in full-tank mode right now and they are now ranked 26^th in defensive efficiency rating on the season. Enes Kanter is also one of the worst individual defenders at the center position, ranking 76^th out of 80 eligible centers in DRPM. Embiid is coming off a game in which he put up 53.5 DK points with an insane 46.5% usage rate against the Pacers. While he surely won’t command the ball that much in tonight’s game, Embiid should be able to score with ease in this matchup. At an increased price tag, I’m hoping that we can get him at a modest ownership level.

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Jay Brancato is an NBA and PGA fantasy contributor for FantasyPros. You can follow him on Twitter @jay_brancato.