Players to Avoid Based on ADP (2018 Fantasy Basketball)

There’s a difference between price and value. Price is the cost to acquire something, while value is the worth of something. Often, value is subjective. Take art for example, as the value for a piece of work is determined by how much someone is willing to pay for it. $43.8 million for this? What a world.

Fantasy basketball is different because we can estimate how many fantasy points a player will score based on minutes played, usage, career numbers, etc due to the large number of possessions in each game. With that said, it’s not an exact science, as there are so many variables that change the landscape on a team and individual player level.

Here’s the funny thing, though. Most of us succumb to herd mentality. In this day and age, it’s hard not to as we all get bombarded with the same information over and over again. There’s safety in numbers, but that doesn’t make it right. In this piece, I’ll highlight some players I believe the market is overvaluing for the upcoming season.

Ben Simmons (PG – PHI)

 
I get it. Simmons is a nightly triple-dub threat and provides juicy D stats as well. But, but, but….No threeecolas, atrocious free throw shooting, and high turnovers. In the first two rounds, I want well-rounded players. I understand the strategy with selecting Simmons, though, and I’m not saying it can’t work. It just requires a specific team build that puts you behind in not one, not two, but three categories.

DeMar DeRozan (SG/SF – SAS)

 
DeRozan is a bonafide scorer, no ifs, ands, or buts about that. And while he expanded his range to the three-point line last season, it’s not something I bank on continuing. The Raptors asked him to make a more concerted effort to shoot from downtown. Now that he’s with the Spurs? Well, they were 27th in attempts from behind the arc.

In addition, while Toronto was 13th in offensive pace, San Antonio was 29th. I don’t see either of those two things changing much. Finally, LaMarcus Aldridge is a usage hog at close to 30%.

Julius Randle (PF/C – NO)

 
As a Lakers fan, I was impressed with Randle’s play last season and root for him to succeed. In terms of landing spots, it doesn’t get any better than in New Orleans, as they played at the fastest pace in the league last season. With that said, you’re not getting any threes or D stats from Randle, but most importantly, I have a hard time projecting him for anywhere close to 30 minutes per game. Anthony Davis is at 36 minutes, while Mirotic should get around 25 minutes. I have Diallo for around 10. That leaves Randle at 25 minutes.

Dennis Smith Jr. (PG/SG – DAL)

 
I’m a huge DSJ fan in real life. He has unbelievable bounce and reminds me of “Stevie Franchise.” In addition, I’m bullish on the Dallas Mavericks as a whole. With that said, it’s tough for me to put him too high due to his poor shooting efficiency, turnovers, and lack of blocks.

D’Angelo Russell (PG/SG – BKN)

 
I’ve never been the biggest Russell fan, but I can’t deny the usage and environment. Brooklyn plays at a top-five pace, and Russell garners a 30% usage rate. You’ll get threes, rebounds, assists, and some steals, but the turnover rate is high and the shooting efficiency…P U

Andrew Wiggins (SG/SF – MIN)

 
Wiggins is still only 22 years old, so there’s hope. Or is there? I have a feeling that Wiggins is who he is. In four professional seasons, the rebound, steal, and block numbers have remained static. He’s a one-dimensional scorer.

Now, he’s only missed one game in his career and you know Thibs is going to play him 36 minutes every night like a freaking psycho, so there’s value in that. Is that worth top 100? Me thinks not.

DeMarcus Cousins (C – GS)

 
I’m a complete fade on Boogie. For starters, he’s returning from Achilles surgery. That is a brutal injury to try and recover from. Ask Elton Brand or Kobe Bryant. Secondly, I’m bullish on Jordan Bell making a leap this season.

Finally, Cousins is a glorified David West to me. He will come in to get some buckets when the starters need a breather. I don’t see him playing significant minutes because he’s not a great off-ball screener or defender.

Stan Son is a featured writer at FantasyPros. To read more from Stan, check out his archive and follow him @Stan_Son.