DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 10
There is a pair of three-man stacks that I love this week at both DraftKings and FanDuel. I like them almost equally, but slightly prefer one over the other at each site. However, I’d strongly suggest checking out the other three-man stack I’m teasing here and discussing in the FanDuel GPP piece, as it plays well at DraftKings, too. The three-man stack featured below is tied to a robust team over/under total of 29.5 points, per Pinnacle, and facing a Charmin-soft defense.
They’re joined by a pair of bargain backs, one of whom returned from IR last week and the other resurfaced from the dead in Week 9. The picks are rounded out by a repeat visitor at receiver who didn’t live up to my lofty expectations last week but has a favorable draw in Week 10.
Philip Rivers (QB – LAC): $6,000 at Raiders
Melvin Gordon (RB – LAC): $9,000 at Raiders
Keenan Allen (WR – LAC): $7,100 at Raiders
This is the second meeting between the AFC West foes. In Week 5, the Chargers whooped the Raiders 26-10. Rivers torched the Silver and Black for 339 yards passing, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions on only 27 passes. Gordon tallied 58 yards rushing, a rushing touchdown, four receptions, and 62 yards receiving. Allen posted an 8-90-0 line on nine targets and added a five-yard rush for good measure. The Raiders are in a free fall, and their skid is unlikely to end against the Chargers this week.
Rivers doesn’t need a ton of volume to deliver the goods. He’s been hyper-efficient and ranks 10th in completion percentage (67.1%), fifth in touchdown passes (19), sixth in interception percentage (1.2%), fourth in yards per attempt (9.1), tied for first in adjusted yards per attempt (10.1), third in Quarterback Rating (116.5), fourth in net yards per attempt (8.41), and second in adjusted net yards per attempt (9.37), per Pro-Football-Reference. Oakland’s inability to generate a pass rush (they sacked him just one time the first time these two teams met) should bode well for Rivers carving the Raiders up.
Gordon and Allen are Rivers’ top two options in the passing attack, and the former has the added benefit of a 10-point spread favoring the Chargers aiding his cause for a heavy workload salting the game away. Despite missing a game and having a bye, Gordon ranks tied for 10th in touches (138), 11th in yards from scrimmage (868), and tied for fourth in rushing plus receiving touchdowns (10). Oakland’s coughed up the ninth-most DraftKings points per game to running backs this season, according to Pro-Football-Reference. Football Outsiders (FO) ranks them 25th defending the run and dead last defending running backs in the passing game. Gordon should eat.
Allen hasn’t had a monster year, and I suspect that of the trio he’ll be easily the lowest owned. He’s coming off his second 100-plus yard receiving effort after torching the Seahawks for a 6-124-0 line in Seattle, though. He’s also posted lines of 8-90-0, 9-133-1, and 5-45-0 in his last three games against the Raiders working backwards from Week 5 this year to his two meetings against them last year. As Rivers’ No. 1 receiver, he’s my favorite stack partner with him. However, I also like Tyrell Williams ($4,500) and will use him in some Rivers/Gordon three-man stacks, too.
Elijah McGuire (RB – NYJ): $3,400 vs. Bills
McGuire returned from IR to face the Dolphins last week, and he totaled a respectable 60 yards from scrimmage on six rushes and three receptions. Perhaps more interestingly, he played 55% of the team’s offensive snaps compared to just 35% for Isaiah Crowell. Crowell’s averaging a hearty 5.0 yards per carry, but that doesn’t tell the whole story for him. Evan Silva of Rotoworld tweeted recently about Crowell ranking just 35th out of 36 qualified running backs in FO’s rushing Success Rate metric.
Prior to suffering a season-ending injury, Bilal Powell played 47% of the Jets’ offensive snaps and he played a higher percentage of offensive snaps than Crowell in Week 2 through Week 6. He also matched Crowell in the opener. It’s not hard to envision McGuire sliding into the Powell role, and his skill-set should play better against the Bills this week.
The Bills have held opposing running backs to a ho-hum 4.14 yards per carry, and FO ranks them 10th defending the run. However, they’ve been more giving to backs in the passing game, and FO ranks them 19th defending backs as pass catchers. Buffalo’s tied for the seventh-most receptions (53) and tied for the 12th-most receiving yards (421) allowed to backs this season while tying for the fifth-most receiving touchdowns (three) surrendered to the position.
The Jets are seven-point favorites at home, which should get both of their backs plenty of work. McGuire’s near minimum salary for a running back sets an exceptionally low bar for him to clear to return value, and I think he’ll blow by it while freeing up tons of cap space to spend elsewhere.
Duke Johnson (RB – CLE): $4,700 vs. Falcons
Last week was your chance to hop on the bandwagon and get him at a low ownership rate. That ship’s sailed after a blowup game against the Chiefs in the first with new offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens. Johnson nearly matched Nick Chubb in offensive snaps playing 35 to Chubb’s 37. Johnson’s snap total amounted to 47% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps.
The pass-catching specialist has a dreamy matchup with the Falcons this week. It’s no secret Atlanta gets torched through the air by backs. They’ve allowed the most targets (94), receptions (76), and receiving yards (658) to running backs this year. This isn’t a new development, either. They’ve traditionally been burned through the air by backs with Dan Quinn as Atlanta’s head coach. Additionally, FO ranks the Falcons 20th defending backs in the passing game. Look for Kitchens to wisely utilize Johnson early and often against the Falcons.
DeSean Jackson (WR – TB): $4,900 vs. Redskins
D-Jax didn’t live up to my expectations in a tough matchup against the Panthers last week, but this is a nice bounce-back spot against Washington. FO ranks Washington 19th defending the pass. Furthermore, their boundary corners could struggle with Jackson’s speed.
Jackson ran a 4.35-second 40-yard dash at the 2008 NFL Draft Combine. Comparatively, Josh Norman ran a 4.66-second 40-yard dash, and Quinton Dunbar ran a 4.44-second 40-yard dash at his Pro Day. Washington ranks in the middle of the pack in 20-plus and 40-plus yard receptions allowed this year.
I’d also like to remind you that Jackson has been a much better player with Ryan Fitzpatrick playing quarterback than with Jameis Winston. According to RotoViz’s game splits, in 14 games with Fitz, Jackson has per-game averages of 6.5 targets, 4.21 receptions, 0.5 touchdowns, and 67.43 receiving yards. Jackson’s big-play dependence makes him volatile week to week, but he pairs nicely with Fitz’s deep-pass tendencies.