DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 16
This week features a pair of three-man stacks. The first stack is a quarterback/wide receiver/tight end stack that I’ve touted previously. The other is a three-man game stack with a running back and No. 1 receiver from the favored home team and a do-it-all rookie back from the opposition rounding it out. As a whole, the six highlighted players are affordable and leave ample salary cap space for at least one more big-ticket player for the remaining unfilled roster spots.
Baker Mayfield (QB – CLE): $6,100 vs. Bengals
Antonio Callaway (WR – CLE): $3,900 vs. Bengals
David Njoku (TE – CLE): $3,800 vs. Bengals
The first time Mayfield faced his former head coach, Hue Jackson, I touted him in a DraftKings stack. I’m going back to the well in meeting two against Jackson. The first meeting was in Week 12 in Cincinnati, and the rookie quarterback needed only 26 passes to thoroughly embarrass his former head coach to the tune of 258 yards passing and four touchdowns.
This time around, the Browns are hosting the hapless Bengals. Cleveland is a 10-point favorite with a team over/under total of 26.5 points, according to Pinnacle. The team over/under total is the sixth highest on the main Sunday slate.
Mayfield’s been locked in for the most part with Freddie Kitchens as the offensive coordinator. According to RotoViz’s game-splits tool, in six games with Kitchens as the OC, Mayfield has per-game averages of 30.67 pass attempts, 21.67 completions, 265.67 passing yards, and 8.98 yards per attempt with 13 touchdowns and only five interceptions. I like his odds of exceeding those per-game averages against a Cincinnati defense that’s tied for the most DraftKings points per game yielded to quarterbacks. Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Bengals 26th defending the pass.
Callaway isn’t my favorite of the two stack partners I’m advocating using with Mayfield, but he’s a solid option with a bargain price point. In the first meeting with the Bengals this year, the rookie wideout posted a 4-62-1 line. It was one of Callaway’s best games of his first season as a pro. Cincinnati has especially struggled with surrendering big plays in the passing game. They’re tied for the fourth-most 20-plus yard passing plays allowed with 54 and tied for the fifth-most 40-plus yard passing plays with 10, per NFL.com.
Callaway’s bread is buttered as a deep threat, and his average targeted air yards of 13.2 TAY is tied for 18th-highest among qualified pass catchers, according to NFL’s Next Gen Stats. His big-play ability pairs nicely with Cincinnati’s inability to limit home-run plays. Furthermore, FO ranks the Bengals just 17th defending No. 1 receivers and 29th defending No. 2 receivers. This is a plus matchup for Callaway, and he doesn’t necessarily need a great deal of volume to deliver a hefty ROI.
Njoku has been far from consistent, but once you get beyond the top-flight tight ends, inconsistency comes with the territory. One of the second-year tight end’s best games of the year was against the Bengals, though. He hauled in all five of his targets for 63 yards and a score.
It should come as little surprise he had success against the Bengals. Cincinnati has been thumped by tight ends all year. They’re tied for the second-most DraftKings points per game allowed to the position. Njoku hasn’t cleared 40 yards receiving in three straight games, but I fully expect him to snap that streak this weekend. As a bonus, his string of underwhelming performances could serve to suppress his ownership a bit.
Marlon Mack (RB – IND): $5,500 vs. Giants
T.Y. Hilton (WR – IND): $7,100 vs. Giants
Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG): $7,900 at Colts
Mack trucked the Cowboys for 139 yards rushing and two touchdowns on 27 carries while chipping in a 10-yard reception for giggles. The effort was Mack’s third north of 125 yards rushing in 10 games, and it probably isn’t a coincidence it coincided with the return of center Ryan Kelly. Entering last week’s contest, Pat Thorman of Pro Football Focus noted that the Colts running backs averaged just 3.4 yards per carry with Kelly out, but averaged a whopping 4.9 yards per carry with Kelly in the lineup. Those numbers were before Mack averaged 5.15 yards per carry against Dallas.
Mack will now take aim at a softer run defense. FO ranks the Giants 19th defending the run, and they’ve been woefully ineffective since trading Damon Harrison. In seven games without “Snacks,” the Giants have coughed up at least 118 rushing yards six times. Last week, Derrick Henry ran wild against them for 170 yards on 33 carries and Dion Lewis even joined the fun with 35 yards on seven carries. The Colts are sizable 10-point favorites, so look for Mack to be force fed the ball from start to finish in this plus matchup.
If Hilton’s healthy enough to play, he should have a hand in the Colts’ expected beatdown of the Giants. The speedy wideout didn’t practice at all last week before suiting up against the Cowboys, so it’s not yet time to write him off for this week due to his inactivity in practice. Obviously, you’ll want to make sure he’s active and healthy enough to play, but if he is, he should eat.
The 29-year-old receiver has been at his best at home in his career with per-game averages of 4.9 receptions and 79.0 receiving yards. He’s also scored 23 touchdowns in 55 home games compared to 17 touchdowns in 51 road games. The Giants should be little more than a speed bump for him ranking dead last defending No. 1 receivers, per FO.
Usually, it’s unwise to use a running back from a double-digit road favorite, but Barkley’s receiving chops are what tickles my fancy in this matchup. The Colts have ceded the second-most receptions (100) and sixth most receiving yards (758) to running backs this season. FO ranks Indianapolis 24th defending running backs in the passing game. Barkley’s already one of the best receiving backs in the game. Among all running backs, Barkley ranks third in targets (106), second in receptions (82), fourth in receiving yards (654) and receiving yards per game (46.7), and tied for seventh in receiving touchdowns (four).
He’s no slouch as a runner, either. The rookie is averaging 82.5 yards rushing per game with nine rushing touchdowns. He had a four-game streak of 100-plus yard rushing efforts snapped in a disappointing showing against the Titans last week in which he totaled 56 yards from scrimmage on 14 carries and four receptions. This is a great bounceback spot.