Week 17 always adds a new wrinkle to daily fantasy team building, and this year is no different. Reading between the tea leaves and prognosticating who will get rest on teams that have clinched a playoff berth is crucial. Correctly guessing which reserves could see an uptick in work is one area where an edge can be gained in GPPs.
Below, a cheap rookie running back who isn’t atop his team’s depth chart gets the nod as a guy who could be in store for some extra work this week. He’s joined by a No. 1 receiver coming off of a big week and fighting for a playoff spot. The lineup selections are headlined by a rookie quarterback, rookie tight end, and his speedy No. 1 receiver as part of a four-man stack that includes a trusty slot wideout from the opposition.
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Sam Darnold (QB – NYJ): $5,200 at Patriots
Robby Anderson (WR – NYJ): $5,600 at Patriots
Chris Herndon (TE – NYJ): $3,400 at Patriots
Julian Edelman (WR – NE): $7,600 vs. Jets
Darnold has been in quite the groove since returning from injury in Week 14. During that three-game stretch, he’s passed for six touchdowns against just one interception while averaging 254.67 passing yards per game and 16.33 rushing yards per game. He’s been especially locked in over his last two with 594 yards passing, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions against the Texans and Packers. Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Patriots 13th defending the pass, so it appears to be a middle-of-the-road matchup. The Patriots have yielded the ninth-most DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks, so they’ve been a little better than middle of the road from a fantasy perspective.
Anderson has been Darnold’s go-to guy down the stretch, and he’s on fire. He’s posted lines of 4-76-1, 7-96-1, and 9-140-1 from Week 14 through Week 16. Shadow coverage from Stephon Gilmore is likely looming, but that’s not enough to push me off of touting — and using — the underpriced speedy wideout. FO ranks the Patriots just 18th defending No. 1 receivers. New England is tied for the seventh most 20-plus yard passes (55) allowed and tied for the 10th-most 40-plus yard passes (nine) allowed this year, per NFL.com. Anderson’s ability to stretch the field and Darnold’s preference to look for and go to his top wideout when extending plays with his legs meshes perfectly with New England hemorrhaging big passing plays.
Herndon has also benefited from Darnold’s in-season growth. He’s bested 50 yards receiving in back-to-back games and is coming off of a career game in his rookie season with six receptions for 82 yards and a touchdown against the Packers. Herndon also has arguably the best matchup of the members of the Gang Green stack. New England has allowed the 11th-most DraftKings points per game to tight ends. Anderson and Herndon are also the Jets’ best bets to score receiving touchdowns. According to Lineups, Herndon was targeted twice in the red zone last week and once in Week 15, and Anderson was targeted twice in the red zone in Week 16, once in Week 15, and four times in Week 14.
The Jets are hefty 13.5-point underdogs in New England, according to Pinnacle. I think they keep the game much closer than that, but I do believe the offense will be tasked with keeping pace.
Edelman is the only member of the heavily favored side of this game. The slot receiver is having a fantastic season and already whooped the Jets for a 4-81-1 line on five targets in Week 12. Slot receivers have pummeled the Jets all year, and instead of typing out each of the notable lines, I’ll piggyback on Ian Hartitz doing so and direct you to his tweet pointing out the lines of previous slot receivers against the Jets. For Edelman’s part, he’s playing good football. Since New England’s Week 11 bye, Edelman’s hit or exceeded 70 yards receiving in four of five games, scored a touchdown in three of five, caught six or more balls in three straight, and hit at least 60 yards from scrimmage in all five.
The Jets have been torched for the second-most DraftKings points per game, and FO ranks them 21st defending No. 1 receivers and “other” receivers. Even if the Patriots once again lean heavily on their running game, Edelman should still get his.
Antonio Brown (WR – PIT): $8,700 vs. Bengals
AB just embarrassed the Saints for a 14-185-2 line on 19 targets. Now, he’ll take aim at the Charmin-soft defense of the Bengals. FO ranks the Bengals 28th defending the pass and 17th defending No. 1 receivers. In Cincinnati in Week 6, Brown caught five of six targets for 105 yards and a touchdown. This week, he draws them at home with the Steelers fighting for their playoff lives.
Brown’s riding a three-game touchdown streak against the Bengals, and his last three lines against them are 4-65-1 (October 22, 2017), 8-101-1 (December 4, 2017), and the aforementioned 5-105-1 back in October. Brown should have little trouble against Cincinnati’s overmatched defense this week.
Rashaad Penny (RB – SEA): $3,700 vs. Cardinals
Let me start by saying that I love Chris Carson this week. In fact, he’s one of the backs I’ve touted in this week’s cash games piece for DraftKings. That doesn’t, however, preclude me from also liking Penny. Seattle and the Ravens are tied for the most rushing attempts this year with 500 each. Seattle’s run-heavy approach leaves the door open for there being enough touches to make Penny — or Mike Davis, I suppose — viable fantasy options in addition to Carson.
The Seahawks have clinched a playoff berth, but they could drop to the sixth seed with a loss and a Vikings win, so they do have some motivation to win. Additionally, head coach Pete Carroll has stated a desire to maintain momentum by playing to win in this week’s contest. In other words, Carson should open the game in his standard feature-back role.
Having said that, Carroll did allude to the possibility of being able to make some personnel decisions in game. Seattle is a monstrous 13.5-point favorite against a visiting Cardinals team that’s the laughingstock of the NFL. There’s a decent possibility this one is a laugher entering the second half.
Penny hasn’t played in two weeks, and it could behoove the Seahawks to get him some extra work to shake off the rust in advance of the playoffs. In his last five healthy games, Penny bested 40 yards four times and scored a rushing touchdown in two games. He’s reached double-digit carries only two times this year, and his second time was an eye-popping 12 carries for 108 yards and a touchdown effort in Los Angeles against the Rams. He’s averaging a super 5.1 yards per carry, so he doesn’t need much volume to do damage. Among running backs with 20-99 rushes, Penny ranks third in DYAR and seventh in DVOA, according to FO. He’s been extremely efficient, and he has a cushy matchup.
The Cardinals have surrendered the fourth-most DraftKings points per game to running backs. FO ranks the visiting Cardinals 27th defending the run. If Penny can carve out around a dozen touches, he’ll have an opportunity to deliver as a bargain play.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
