FanDuel NBA Lineup Advice: Monday (12/17)

It’s the last full week before the week of Christmas. No better time to win some extra cash for the Holidays. Tonight we have a solid slate of eight games and a few good matchups to take advantage of. Minnesota versus Sacramento should draw plenty of attention with an over/under of 231 and a spread of eight points. Also, the Suns at the Knicks should be a fantasy focus as well. With no major injuries to report for the stars of the slate tonight, it’ll be even more important to pick and choose the ones with the best chance of putting up solid numbers.

With that being said the players listed in this article are the ones I am focusing on who would offer the best chance of success based on recent play, matchup and opportunity. I will list two players at each position, with the exception of center where there will be only one. These players will be ones I believe give you the best chance to finish in the green. As always though, stay up-to-date with the latest news all the way up to tip-off as late scratches are very much a thing in the NBA. Good luck!

Check out today’s NBA Slam from FanDuel

Point Guard

Damian Lillard (POR): $8,800 at LAC
We kick things off with Lillard. I’m fading Russell Westbrook tonight because of the matchup with a bad Bulls team in a game that carries blowout potential (13 point spread) and cost ($11,600), so getting value out of Westbrook would be a lot to ask. Lillard comes in at a much more cap friendly $8,800, meaning he’d need 44 FanDuel (FD) points to hit 5x value. He gets a matchup with the Clippers who rank just 20^th against point guards and who he posted a 30 point, six rebound, four assist stat line against on November 25. Lillard leads the starters in usage rate by four percentage points over second place CJ McCollum so he will definitely get first crack at the porous Clippers defense. He’s a good player to start your lineup with due to his high floor (less than 36 FD points once in the past seven games) and his high ceiling (more than 40 FD points in four of the past seven). If you look at his game log you may not be too impressed with his past few outings, but keep in mind those came against good competition that included Memphis and Toronto. Also, keep in mind tonight will be a pace-up matchup with a Clippers team that ranks in the top 10 in pace. With more possessions, as a result, Lillard should have more opportunity to make good on 5x value.

De’Aaron Fox (SAC): $7,500 at MIN
One of the hottest players in the NBA right now is De’Aaron Fox, making him a very solid play in a game that sports a very high 231 over/under. In his last four games, Fox has averaged 22 points, three rebounds, seven assists and two steals per game resulting in an average of 43 FD points per game. While the Timberwolves do rank 10^th against the point guard position there will still be plenty of points/opportunity to collect fantasy points for Fox tonight. Both teams rank in the top 11 of the league in pace, increasing the possessions for each team which is good news for the leader of the Kings starters in usage rate. Statistically speaking putting Fox in lineups tonight is a no-brainer given his recent play, pace-up matchup and his very cap-friendly salary. He’d need 37.5 FD points to get to 5x value and he’s done that in four of the past six games. If further evidence is needed he’s recorded at least five assists in nine straight games, and he’s also had at least two steals in three of the past four games. Fox can be selected with confidence.

Shooting Guard

Devin Booker (PHO): $8,400 at NYK
Booker shows up in this list due in part to the matchup against a bad Knicks team that ranks 23^rd against the shooting guard position. In his first game back from a six-game absence he dropped a 28 point, seven rebound, seven assist stat line resulting in 44.9 FD points. Booker is the unquestioned leader of the Suns and will get all the opportunity he can handle tonight. He ranks 10^th in the league in usage rate amongst all players, which highlights how much opportunity he really gets every game. There can be a bit of uncertainty with Booker in his second game back and on the second leg of a back-to-back, but it’s hard to ignore a player with such a high usage rate, in a pace-up matchup (Knicks rank 15^th in the league in pace, Suns rank 22^nd) against a team that struggles against guards.

Andrew Wiggins (MIN): $6,300 vs SAC
Another piece of the game with an inflated over/under is Andrew Wiggins. Minnesota has an implied total of 120 points tonight so there will be plenty to go around for the player who ranks third on the team in usage (of players averaging 22 minutes or more). His modest salary of $6,300 should allow him to reach the 31.5 FD points he’d need to get to 5x value. He’s achieved that number in three of his past six. Ironically, one of the games he didn’t reach that value was against this Kings team on December 12 (30.9 FD points). Regardless, he’s a solid high-floor candidate going six straight games of at least 25 FD points and in a matchup like the one tonight it’d be easy to see this streak extending to seven. During that stretch, he’s scored 20 or more points four times and has also grabbed at least five rebounds in four of those games. His appearance on this list is due to the matchup (Kings rank 24^th against the shooting guard position) and his recent play.

Small Forward

Paul George (OKC): $9,800 vs CHI
You may wonder why George shows up in this list, but not Russell Westbrook. Well, it’s purely related to salary and George’s salary is much easier to work with tonight. It is smart to get a piece of the Thunder tonight and I’d have no issue with wanting Westbrook and George in lineups if you can swing it. They get a Bulls team that has been seemingly in disarray really since the firing of Fred Hoiberg. George ranks second on the Thunder in usage slightly behind Westbrook (two percentage points behind) so he will have plenty of opportunity to make his mark on the game. He’s also been playing well of late finishing with at least 40 FD points in seven straight games, including a 72 FD point outburst. In his last time out against Chicago George posted 19 points, five rebounds and seven assists resulting in 44.5 FD points, but that was a result of a rare poor shooting night where he went 6-for-16 from the field resulting in a 37.5 shooting percentage. He’s shooting 44 percent from the field on average for the season and hasn’t shot below 50 percent since that game. Even with a below average shooting performance he still almost attained 5x value so it’d be easy to see his efficient shooting resurface tonight. George is a good play because of the upside he brings into a good matchup while still having an affordable salary.

Nemanja Bjelica (SAC): $5,200 at MIN
Another King shows up in this list due to the implied totals of this matchup with the Timberwolves. Nemanja Bjelica could potentially be a savvy play as he posted a 40.5 FD point outing against this same Timberwolves team on December 12. His stat line was 25 points, five rebounds and three assists, which is tremendous production from a guy coming in at a $5,200 salary. What also helps is Minnesota ranks 30^th against the small forward position so this would be a good opportunity to grab a mid-level guy with high upside in a good matchup. In addition, Bjelica has produced at least 25 FD points in four of the past five games which gives him a safe floor as well. He is the type of player that can score in bunches while offering double-double potential. This would be a solid upside play in a matchup that he’s already proven he can take advantage of, he can be selected with little risk.

Power Forward

Blake Griffin (DET): $9,500 vs MIL
The power forward position is a little light tonight so I’m recommending the top option in Blake Griffin. Griffin does have a pretty good matchup against a Bucks team that ranks 16^th against the position and play at the fifth fastest pace in the league, making it a pace-up matchup for him as well. This means more possessions for the team leader in usage by a full four percentage points which increases his opportunity. Last time these teams met Griffin finished with 31 points, seven rebounds and four assists resulting in 41.4 FD points. Griffin has strung together a few nice games in a row and has been playing well finishing with at least 40 FD points in six straight games. When it comes to paying up at a position you’d like to see huge numbers, but even more, you don’t want to see low numbers dip into the high 20’s low 30’s. With the recent play mixed with the matchup and usage, Griffin is a safe play tonight and if nothing else should continue to offer a high floor.

Tobias Harris (LAC): $7,700 vs POR
Harris also gets a nice mix of a good matchup to go along with being the highest usage player amongst the starters for his team. Portland ranks 30^th against the power forward position and Harris exposed that matchup the last time these teams met posting a 34 points, 11 rebound performance totaling 51.7 FD points. Harris definitely offers double-double potential on a nightly basis and can fill up the score sheet very quickly. Some may view him as a boom-or-bust type of fantasy player, but his successes definitely seem matchup based. This is evidenced by the last three times he’s finished below 30 FD points came against San Antonio, Toronto and Memphis. Given that he is so reliant on matchups it should put your mind at ease the Blazers are so poor against the position and should offer little resistance to Harris who goes into tonight with a good opportunity for a double-double.

Center

DeAndre Ayton (PHO): $7,400 at NYK
New York Knicks rank 24^th against opposing centers and tonight DeAndre Ayton will be the one looking to take advantage of that. Ayton will look to take advantage of this matchup where the Knicks have given up an average of a 20 point/10 rebound double-double to opposing centers. Ayton carries the type of potential to expose that recording a double-double in four of his past five games. His modest salary at $7,400 means he’d need 37 FD points to get to 5x value, which he’s done in three of the past four games. Devin Booker has returned for the Suns meaning Ayton’s opportunity for scoring may take a hit, but Booker’s shooting ability should also open up the interior for more rebounding/put-back chances. Tonight will be a good chance for Ayton to build on his recent strong play and add another double-double to his belt.

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Chris Berg is a correspondent at FantasyPros. You can follow him on Twitter @bergey13.