Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers: Week 19

Welcome back to the weekly risers and fallers article fantasy baseball edition. After a one-week hiatus, I’m back to discuss players to acquire through trades or free agency while others who have lost some value since the All-Star break. I’ll perform a dive into what I’m seeing in these players that either has me excited or concerned. Let’s dig in!

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Risers

DJ LeMahieu (2B/3B – NYY)
DJ is hitting .395 with four home runs and nine runs over his last 10 games. He played seven seasons in Colorado but never managed to hit more than 15 home runs in a single season. After his two-homer performance on Saturday, he’s up to 17 in early-August this year. After combing through his batted ball profile, not much has changed. His approach to hitting continues to include high-contact rates, a ton of line drives and driving the ball up the middle. It’s a great way to hit for a high batting average, so his .302 career rate is no fluke. The marriage with the Yankees and DJ has been perfect thanks to the short porch in right field. He’s hit eight of his 17 home runs this year to right field and his home run per fly ball rate (HR/FB%) on balls to right has nearly tripled his previous career-high (17.0%). Cemented in the leadoff spot for the Yankees, LeMahieu looks to be a 3.5 category stud for the remaining two months of the season. 

Vlad Guerrero Jr. (3B – TOR)
Baby Vlad has come out in the second half and has shown everyone why he was the top prospect coming into the 2019 season. Since last Saturday, he’s hitting .486 with four home runs, 18 RBI and a .485 xwOBA. His struggles early on can be partially attributed to pitchers treating him like a 10-year veteran rather than a 20-year-old rookie. He’s seeing sliders over 24% of the time while fourseam fastballs just one-third of the time. Let’s check Baby Vlad’s 15-game rolling average graph including wOBA, zone contact, and strikeout rate.

In the minors, Vad made a mockery of minor league pitching. It took him some time to adjust to the highest level, which is far from abnormal, even for elite prospects. Since the All-Star break, he’s hitting .361 with a 1.032 OPS and has cut his strikeout rate by over six percent to just 12.1%. In an era when strikeouts are on the rise, Vlad is moving in the other direction. I would not be surprised if he maintains a .300+ batting average and continues to hit for power the rest of the way. Owners who snagged him in the third or fourth round won’t be satisfied with his final line but I think he’s the real deal. Vlad is poised to be a top 25 player for the next decade-plus.

Will Smith (C – LAD)
The Fresh Prince of LA has assumed the bulk of the catching duties for the Dodgers and it’s been a hell of a ride thus far. He’s hitting .375 with three home runs, 13 RBI, and a .502 xwOBA since July 27th. That’s fantastic production from a catcher you were able to pluck off the waiver wire two weeks ago. Catchers typically take more time than other position players to develop and Smith is still just 24 years old. He’s already smashed 20 homers at Triple-A this year after hitting 20 all of last year. Since the call-up, he’s crushing everything in the air with just a 25.7% ground ball rate. His average fly ball distance increased last year and into 2019 hovering around 300 to 310 feet. That’s slightly above league-average. Since the start of June however, his average fly ball distance has jumped up to about 320 feet! The power gains seem legitimate given his 54% hard contact rate. In this small sample size, his strikeout is high (28.6%) but regularly showed good plate skills in the minors. I’d expect some improvements on his current strikeout rate and expect more free passes. Going forward, he should be owned in all 12-team leagues and deeper.

Mike Tauchman (OF – NYY)
The 28-year-old rookie has done a little bit of everything since the All-Star break and more importantly, has been playing just about every day. Since the break, he’s hitting .404 with three homers and two stolen bases which is good for a .491 wOBA. He never got his chance with the Rockies but always showed solid power and speed with above-average walk rates in the minors. He’s a guy I grabbed in a 20-team dynasty league a few weeks ago and has been paying dividends. His expected metrics don’t paint a pretty picture but his plate approach is near elite.  The Yankees are still without sluggers Giancarlo Stanton, Luke Voit, Edwin Encarnacion, and just lost Aaron Hicks. With the glut of injuries, I expect regular playing time for Tauchman in the second half. I’m not running out to acquire his services in shallow leagues but in 12 to 14-team leagues, I’d give him an extended look.

Zack Wheeler (SP – NYM)
Wheeler has been on a roll recently with a 2.19 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and 14 strikeouts in his first two starts since coming off the IL. He had actually started to turn the corner at the end of June striking out over 10 batters per nine innings with a 3.19 ERA. He’s been getting batters to chance pitches outside the zone at a higher frequency than he did through the majority of the first half. That’s helped him boost his strikeout rate a bit but also helped him allow quite a bit of weak contact. Wheeler currently ranks 22nd among qualified starters with an xwOBA of .299. The Mets hired Phil Regan as their new pitching coach in June. That’s right around the time Wheeler increased his slider usage by more than five percent which has been a catalyst in his success. His slider is not a traditional sweeping slider that gets a ton of whiffs. It’s a hard slider that he typically throws over 90 MPH. Wheeler’s overall peripherals are nearly identical to last season and it’s possible Regan saw something in Wheeler that needed just a small tweak. Going forward, I’d expect something closer to the Wheeler we saw in the second half of last season. 

Wade Miley (SP – HOU)
While all eyes were on newly acquired Aaron Sanchez and company during the combined no-hitter on Saturday, Wade Miley continues to slide under the radar. Over his last two starts, he’s earned two wins, a 1.64 ERA and 12 strikeouts over 11 innings. You’re probably aware that Miley has been decent this year but would you believe me if I told you his ERA ranks 12th among qualified starters at 3.05? His WHIP ranks inside the top 20 at 1.13 and he’s one of 18 pitchers with 10 wins this year. Sure, his strikeout rate is low but owners have hit the jackpot with Miley who has basically pitched like a number two or high-end three all year. 

Fallers

Kris Bryant (3B/OF – CHC)
Bryant is in one of the biggest slumps of his career hitting just .100 with a strikeout rate north of 30% over this past week. Let’s take a peek at his 50 plate appearance rolling average graph to get an idea of how poor his recent performance has been.

Expected weighted on-base average essentially measures your strikeout rate, walk rate, and quality of contact. At no point in Bryant’s career has his xwOBA been this low over a 50 PA stretch. It came very close last year when he was injured, but when healthy, Bryant’s quality of contact has never been this poor. The Cubs gave him Sunday off, hopefully, that cures him. Bryant has openly discussed being fatigued towards the end of prior seasons. Is this fatigue, injury, or just a slump? The point is, 30-homer power is no longer a sought after commodity as it was in the past. Bryant’s stolen bases have also dried up, so Bryant is three category player without an elite skill outside of OBP leagues. We need to stop looking at KB as a top 50 fantasy asset unless his power jumps to the caliber of his MVP 2016 season.

Josh Bell (1B – PIT)
Talk about a tale of two halves thus far in 2019 for Bell. 

 
Will the real Josh Bell please stand up? We need to take a step back and realize that we are still in small sample size territory in the second half. His plate approach in the second half is just fine, in fact, he’s walking more than he did in the first half. The problem I’m seeing is with his quality of contact. His hard contact rate per FanGraphs is down 15% in the second half. He’s hitting a ton of popups. After hitting just two infield flys in all of the first half, he’s already hit three in one-quarter of the plate appearances. It’s not that he’s chasing pitches outside the zone, his O-Swing has actually dropped in the second half. There are two explanations. He’s either injured or was playing way over his head in the first half. If he’s healthy, I’d expect a bounceback somewhere between these two extremes. There isn’t anything in the profile that has me all that concerned. If his in injured, the Pirates need to shut him down as their playoff hopes are long gone. Either way, you need to hold Bell and hope he partially returns to form.

Mike Minor (SP – TEX)
I was wondering when all those fly balls that Minor allows would start turning into home runs. Minor skated by limiting opponents to just 12 home runs over his first 18 starts. Since then, he’s been pummeled with eight homers over his last four starts. It’s no surprise that his ERA is 6.65 over that stretch and his ERA-estimators don’t paint a prettier picture. When I was on the Fantasy Baseball Podcast with Bobby Sylvester at the end of June, I discussed selling Minor. By in large it was due to fatigue in addition to the high volume of fly balls. Minor has not thrown 200 innings since 2013 and worked out of the bullpen in 2017 before moving back into the rotation in 2018. He’s already up to 140 innings in 2019 after 157 last year. His velocity is still okay but is down just a hair. Once his velocity begins to fall below 92 MPH, his strikeout rate is bound to fall with it. The Rangers are a longshot to reach to the postseason, so once they fall out of contention, I expect Minor to either be shut down or have some of his starts skipped. 

Shane Greene (RP – ATL)
Just when Greene’s owners thought they were going to pile up a ton of saves in the final two months, they get the week from hell. He’s blown his first two save opportunities giving up four earned runs and seven base runners with the Braves. He had been pitching over his head for the Tigers this season with all the ERA-estimators pegging his performance to date somewhere between 3.50 and 3.80. Carrying a .200 BABIP with him to Atlanta, owners had to expect some regression. His fastball velocity is down over one MPH this year and his swinn=ging strike rate (SwStr%) of 10.9% is league-average. That’s not exactly what I expect when looking for an elite closer. Greene should receive more opportunities but the Braves won’t continue throwing games away as the playoffs draw near. Luke Jackson who proved to be a capable closer is waiting in the wings. How many more blown saves will it take? Greene owners may want to grab Jackson as a contingency plan.

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Max Freeze is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Max, check out his archive and follow him @FreezeStats.