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Vacated targets for wide receivers are a very different animal compared to vacated touches for running backs (covered here). With running backs, we can rather confidently narrow it down to one or two players that will inherit the bulk of those carries. This is largely due to the “next man up” nature combined with the fact that teams typically deploy one-running back formations. With wide receivers, vacated targets seem to get spread out far more evenly across two, three, or even four different players after someone who absorbed the majority share of the targets has departed the team.
After looking at the trends from the 2017-18 season when vacated targets were up for grabs, a few things stood out. One is that it is actually rather unpredictable if the remaining top wide receiver absorbs many, if any, more of the vacated targets in the next year. Of the nine qualifying teams studied, only two of these had returning receivers take full advantage by acquiring more than 30 of the significant vacated targets on their team. These two shared common traits in they were both young, the next best remaining option on the team, and operated in high-powered passing offenses with good quarterbacks (Davante Adams and JuJu Smith-Schuster).
Looking to 2019, we can distinguish significant vacated targets (a player leaving with ~90 targets) and compare it to the remaining returning players on the team that commanded a decent chunk of targets in 2018. Tight ends and running backs, of course, could also steal a share, but our goal is to focus on wide receivers for the sake of this study. See the 2018-19 chart below:
There we have it, at least a few players on this list could see a large increase in targets coming their way in 2019. Let’s break it down by teams’ significant available targets.
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1. Baltimore Ravens – 197 significant targets*
This group becomes much less impactful when you realize the MAJOR downgrade of passing attempts going from Joe Flacco to Lamar Jackson. Pass attempts went from 42 per game with Flacco to 24 per game with Jackson. This is obviously very bad news for receivers in Baltimore.
Even so, let’s say the Ravens throw more in 2019. The depth chart is very thin and is what prompted them to select Marquise Brown with their first-round draft pick. Willie Snead has some sneaky value being the last wide receiver standing after Crabtree and John Brown’s 197 collective targets were sent elsewhere and Marquise Brown is still recovering from injury. Rookie Miles Boykin may also have a chance to climb the depth chart rather quickly due to a lack of competition.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 179 significant targets
There is sound reasoning for all of this Chris Godwin hype, as he now becomes the clear-cut number two in a high-octane passing offense with Adam Humphries and DeSean Jackson jumping ship. Mike Evans is already seeing a huge share that could still increase, while Godwin is near certain to see a heavy increase in balls thrown his way. Godwin is young, the next-best wide receiver option after Evans, and is in a pass-happy offense. Sounds like a breakout waiting to happen.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers – 168 significant targets
The once-blonde mustache has left for the Raiders, leaving a massive void in the Steelers’ rolling offense. JuJu Smith-Schuster was already primed for more targets and now very well could lead the league in them this year. Donte Moncrief and James Washington are also guys that could be steals at their ADPs given how valuable being the number two in Pittsburg has been. Early reports are that spot belongs to Moncrief.
4. New York Giants – 124 significant targets
In a monumental trade, Odell Beckham Jr. became a Brown. The Giants recognized their lack of depth and brought in veteran Golden Tate to help patch things over, but he is suspended the first four games of the year. Sterling Shepard has a chance to prove himself worthy amidst a weak depth chart. His targets per game increased nearly two per game without Beckham in the lineup and there’s little reason that pace shouldn’t continue into this year.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars – 89 significant targets
Does a new quarterback translate to new production for wide receivers? Nick Foles is in town, but it’s anyone’s guess who his favorite targets will end up being. With Marqise Lee currently injured, Dede Westbrook and D.J. Chark are the current favorites. With low ADPs and targets up for grabs, they just might be worth a late flier to hold until we see how this wide receiver corps shapes up.
6. Dallas Cowboys – 87 significant targets
Amari Cooper was acquired midseason and is bound to see a healthy amount of targets showered upon him this year being the alpha-dog in Dallas. Not many seem to be paying attention to the young Michael Gallup, who looks due to take a step up this year now that Cole Beasley has left. With Ezekiel Elliott’s potential holdout, could the Cowboys turn to the passing game even more often this year?
It needs reiterating that vacated targets are far from a sure thing to be absorbed by any one or two people, but at the same time, the top options remaining on a team have the greatest odds to see an increase, even if it’s subtle. Rookies and free-agent acquisitions blur the line on returning players with targets up for grabs, but the list up above should help guide you into searching for your next breakout wide receiver.
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David Zach is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive and follow him @DavidZach16.
