DraftKings NBA Lineup Advice: Monday (12/2)

Monday’s night’s six-game slate on the NBA hardwood is shaping up as a good night to go with a “Starts and Scars” approach to lineup construction. There is the potential for numerous near minimum-priced players to roster who should see a big spike in their minutes and production, assuming the typical starter is ruled out. So, with that in mind, you will be getting two stud recommendations for the price of one and all the value you can handle for Monday’s DraftKings NBA lineup advice.

Note that some of the stats referenced in this article are my custom defense versus position (DvP) calculations that combines data from the season and last five games along with blending similar positions production allowed together.

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One Stud

Joel Embiid (C – PHI): $10,300 vs. UTH
Since his zero-point effort, Embiid has been ballin’ over his last three games. He’s put up 30.7 points, 14.7 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per night. While his matchup on Monday night isn’t, as he’s ideal going against Rudy Gobert and the Jazz, he averaged 25.0 points and 15.5 rebounds against them in two meetings last season. He should get big minutes in a tight game, which is more than I can say for another high-priced stud Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Trae Young (PG – ATL): $10,500 vs. GSW
If the value opens up with key players getting ruled out for the Knicks and Grizzlies, then there is enough room in your DraftKings lineup for two studs. The second option to fit in would be Young playing at home against the Warriors. Young has scored at least 29 points in five straight games while also handing out just under eight assists per game in those outings. The points should be plentiful for Young on Monday, as the Warriors have allowed increased points (+18.5%) to point guards this season.

Core Plays

Domantas Sabonis (PF/C – IND): $8,000 at MEM
Sabonis is a double-double machine, as he’s reached that milestone in 11 of his 12 games. He could offer up more value in his peripheral stats on Monday as the Grizzlies have allowed an increase in steals (+17.2%) and blocks (+50.6%) to power forwards this season. Sabonis offers one of the safest high floors on this slate and has a little bit of upside potential.

Zach LaVine (PG/SG – CHI): $7,900 at SAC
LaVine doesn’t offer the consistency that Sabonis does, but LaVine’s upside is more significant. He has topped 47 DraftKings points in three of his last four outings, including two performances of over 58 DK points. LaVine has seen an increase in his scoring by being more assertive on the offensive end with 24 or more shots in his last three big scoring nights. The increased shot volume coupled with the Kings’ defense, which has allowed the eighth-highest field goal percent to shooting guards this season, should lead to another big scoring night. The Kings have also allowed increased production in assists (+6.8%), steals (+35.0%), and blocks (+48.4%), which could also increase LaVine’s upside in this matchup.

Dario Saric (SF/PF – PHO): $5,900 at CHA
Saric has played at least 33 minutes in each of the last three games while averaging 14.7 points and 12.7 rebounds for 39.7 DK points per game. The expected return of Aron Baynes on Monday shouldn’t adversely affect Saric much as Saric has averaged more minutes and fantasy production with Baynes playing than without him over the last 10 games. The Hornets have allowed increased production to power forwards in points (+19.8%) and rebounds (+12.4%).

Khris Middleton (SG/SF – MIL): $5,700 vs. NY
Middleton has played three games since returning from injury, and he has produced 14.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 3.7 assists while averaging just 20 minutes per game. His minutes should ramp up in his fourth game at least into the upper 20s for a home game with the Knicks. Now is the time to jump on Middleton’s decreased salary under $6k while he also offers good positional flexibility for lineup construction.

Value Plays

De’Anthony Melton (PG/SG – MEM): $3,400 vs. IND
With Ja Morant out on Sunday, Tyus Jones got the start and played 25 minutes while Melton saw 23 minutes off the bench. Melton actually had the bigger fantasy day despite shooting just 2-for-10 from the field as he stuffed the box score with nine points, seven rebounds, and eight assists. With Morant still out, Jones saw his salary spike up to $5,600 while Melton’s salary remained a very tame $3,400. Jones is the safer play, but the salary difference gives Melton a significant edge on DraftKings.

Dennis Smith Jr. (PG – NYK): $3,200 at MIL
The Knicks could be without Frank Ntilikina on Monday when they square off with the Bucks, which would open the door for big minutes for Smith. In the last game, when Ntilikina left due to injury, Smith came on to play 38 minutes while putting up 17 points and seven assists on his way to 32.75 DK points. Smith’s salary remains near the minimum, and he will be a must-play if Ntilikina is out.

Bruno Caboclo (PF/C – MEM): $3,000 vs. IND
The Grizzlies are dealing with some injuries, which has opened up playing time for Caboclo on Sunday. He played 29 minutes and responded with 12 points and 13 rebounds. The status of Jonas Valanciunas will determine if Caboclo is a strong option on Monday or just a GPP flier. If Valanciunas misses another game, then Caboclo should be a lock for 25-plus minutes at min-price. If Valanciunas plays, then consider Valanciunas a core play as he averaged 26.0 points and 16.5 rebounds in his last two games.

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Brad Richter is a Featured Writer and Correspondent at FantasyPros and a contributor at DailyOverlay. For more from Brad, you can view his archive or follow him @RotoPilot.