One week until Christmas and we are given an early gift here with a week full of moderately sized slates. This fine Wednesday puts nine games up on the board, with a few spots really standing out.
Check out today’s NBA Shot from FanDuel 
Major Injuries
Luka Doncic – OUT
The MVP front-runner sprained his ankle early in their game on Saturday, missed Monday’s game, and is slated to miss at least a couple more games. This paved the way two huge games from Kristaps Porzingis (C, $8,900), as he scored 49.8 and 50.4 FanDuel points on two massive double-doubles. His price has shot up after these games, and the Mavs have a tough test with the Celtics tonight, but I still do not think it is high enough to not make him a near lock tonight. The other big beneficiary has been Jalen Brunson (PG – $6,000) who has scored 31 points, grabbed 11 rebounds, and handed out 19 assists in the two games without Luka. That price tag is a little less appealing, but still very strong as the Mavericks try to fill the monstrous hole that Doncic left. Seth Curry (PG – $4,100) also has some tournament appeal as he launched 15 shots in the Mavericks last game without doing much else.
One week until Christmas and we are given an early gift here with a week full of moderately sized slates. This fine Wednesday puts nine games up on the board, with a few spots really standing out.
Check out today’s NBA Shot from FanDuel
Major Injuries
Luka Doncic – OUT
The MVP front-runner sprained his ankle early in their game on Saturday, missed Monday’s game, and is slated to miss at least a couple more games. This paved the way two huge games from Kristaps Porzingis (C, $8,900), as he scored 49.8 and 50.4 FanDuel points on two massive double-doubles. His price has shot up after these games, and the Mavs have a tough test with the Celtics tonight, but I still do not think it is high enough to not make him a near lock tonight. The other big beneficiary has been Jalen Brunson (PG – $6,000) who has scored 31 points, grabbed 11 rebounds, and handed out 19 assists in the two games without Luka. That price tag is a little less appealing, but still very strong as the Mavericks try to fill the monstrous hole that Doncic left. Seth Curry (PG – $4,100) also has some tournament appeal as he launched 15 shots in the Mavericks last game without doing much else.
Karl-Anthony Towns – Questionable
They are calling Towns a game-time decision, but I think there is a good chance we get some news early this afternoon. If Towns misses, this Timberwolves team becomes the go-to spot for fantasy value. Not only do they have a 29% usage rate and a 1.42 fantasy points per minute to replace, they are playing the super exploitable Pelicans defense. Jarrett Culver (SF – $4,200) and Gorgui Dieng (C – $3,500) would become amazing cheap options, while Andrew Wiggins (SG – $7,800) would be a great bet for a 50+ FanDuel point game as he takes on a good heap of Towns shots and even a few rebounds.
Andre Drummond / Blake Griffin – Questionable
These two missed the Pistons’ last game and are game-time decisions tonight once again, opening up a ton of usage on this Pistons team. In that last game, we saw Derrick Rose (PG – $6,500) take 17 shots and score 22 points while adding six rebounds and eight assists. Markieff Morris (SF – $4,900) was the second option, taking 13 shots and scoring 22 points of his own, and Luke Kennard (SF – $5,700), Bruce Brown (SG – $5,300), Langston Galloway (SG – $3,700), and Christian Wood (PF – $4,800) all played big minutes and were very involved. All of those names would be in play in Drummond and Griffin both miss, with Rose, Morris, and Brown would be my favorites.
Those three spots really define this slate, but cannot quite make a full lineup out of that, so here are some other plays to consider.
Guards
Damian Lillard (PG – POR): $8,700 vs. Warriors
As you probably know, FanDuel has a $60,000 salary cap, which is $10,000 more than DraftKings. Due to this, you typically see players be more expensive on FanDuel that on DraftKings, which makes it interesting to find the times when that is reversed because it might suggest a misprice on one of the sites. This is the case for Lillard tonight, as he is $300 cheaper on FanDuel. He has a 1.21 fantasy point per minute rate with a 28% usage, and the Warriors have been giving up fantasy points aplenty to everybody. Against guards, they give up an average 5.8x return on salary. Lillard is a nice way to capture some huge upside tonight.
Zach LaVine (SG – CHI): $8,100 @ Wizards
The Wizards are one of the worst defenses in the league. They have allowed an average salary value return of 6.0x to guards this year, and LaVine is the Bulls primary offensive weapon. He has shot the ball 15 or more times in seven straight games and is as good a candidate as anybody to pour in 40 real-life points in this game, which makes him a total smash play at $8,100. This is one of the more attractive games for fantasy production, and you can get a huge chunk of it with LaVine.
Isaiah Thomas (PG – WAS): $4,900 vs. Bulls
Thomas came back from a short injury stint and took 13 shots against the Pistons on Monday, playing 26 minutes. Before the injury, we saw an uptick in minutes and shot attempts as well, so this may be a trend developing. The FanDuel price is below $5,000 after the injury while it was near the $6,000 range for a while there. This is a lower ceiling spot as Thomas would have to shoot really well to smash in his usual mid-20’s minute allotment, but the price is not quite right and this provides a nice value at point guard.
Josh Hart (SG – NOP): $4,800 @ Timberwolves
Another case where the price is just too cheap. J.J. Redick is likely going to miss this game, which gives Hart some extra run against a very fast-paced Timberwolves team. For the year, Hart has been a 0.89 fantasy point per minute contributor, and the Wolves are allowing an average return on salary of 6.1x to wing players. Hart is in an awesome spot tonight and has massive upside at this low price tag.
Forwards
Serge Ibaka (PF – TOR): $4,900 @ Pistons
Another price consideration play here, Ibaka seems a bit too cheap in this spot. He is averaging right in the mid-twenties in FanDuel points on the year, and there is a good chance he gets a few extra minutes as the Raptors have to deal with Andre Drummond all night. If Serge gets his minutes into the upper twenties, he should have no trouble giving you a 6x return on salary in this one.
Centers
Hassan Whiteside (C – POR): $9,400 vs. Warriors
This is a hefty price to pay for Whiteside, but the matchup could not be much better. The Warriors have given up an average return of 6.2x to centers, and Whiteside has actually been playing 30+ minutes recently. He has recorded seven straight double-doubles and has even been shooting the ball with more frequency, notching 21 shot attempts last Thursday. He has been rolling and provides a huge floor with what he does rebounding and blocking shots. The ceiling is sky-high even at this bloated price tag.
This has been a shorter article than what you usually get from me, but I do not think it is really worth going away from those three big-time spots we mentioned first. When you have huge names like Doncic, Towns, and Drummond likely to miss, you have to take advantage of the player’s that absorb their fantasy points because those situations are just so unlikely to fail. Keep a close eye on the news reports because that is how this slate is going to be decided, good luck to everybody and thanks for reading!
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Jon Anderson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jon, check out his archive and follow him@JonPgh.
