Playing fantasy in Week 17 feels like being part of a secret club. All the casuals who only play for 16 weeks are gone, and now it’s just us cool kids that are playing for a championship in a league with terrible settings. If you’re playing this week, you probably also have a two-week championship, so you know if you need to make up ground from losing last week, or if you have some breathing room. If you’re looking to play it safe, I would favor defenses with low implied point totals. If you’re behind and need to gamble on some more upside, I would take the teams with better projections in other stats, even if their projected points allowed is a little higher. For example, PHI, BUF, and DAL are all projected for 7.6 points. Dallas, with the lowest implied point total of the three, is probably the safest pick, while the Eagles, with the highest projected sacks of the week, have the most upside.
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Ranks
None of my top picks are super low-owned, but in a championship week, you’re probably only competing with one other team on the waiver wire. There’s also no future to stash players for, so you should fill your roster with as many good defenses as possible, in hopes of depriving your opponent. Ownership numbers are from Yahoo. You can grill me on my ranks on Twitter.
| Rank | Team | Vs. | O/U | Spread | PA | Sack | Turnovers | TD | FPTS | Own% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||||
| 1 | GB | @DET | 41.5 | -9.5 | 16.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.16 | 8.8 | 47% |
| 2 | NE | MIA | 43.5 | -15.5 | 14.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.15 | 8.7 | 98% |
| 3 | NO | @CAR | 48 | -10.5 | 18.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.17 | 7.7 | 77% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||||
| 4 | PHI | @NYG | 45.5 | -4.5 | 20.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.15 | 7.6 | 55% |
| 5 | BUF | NYJ | 37.5 | -1 | 18.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.15 | 7.6 | 69% |
| 6 | DAL | WAS | 44.5 | -13.5 | 15.5 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.14 | 7.6 | 34% |
| 7 | MIN | CHI | 41.5 | -7 | 17.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.13 | 7.3 | 74% |
| 8 | LAR | ARI | 48.5 | -8.5 | 20.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.13 | 7.2 | 69% |
| 9 | BAL | PIT | 41.5 | -2.5 | 19.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.16 | 6.9 | 97% |
| 10 | KC | LAC | 46.5 | -7.5 | 19.5 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.14 | 6.7 | 63% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||||
| 11 | NYJ | @BUF | 37.5 | 1 | 19.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.13 | 6.4 | 34% |
| 12 | CLE | @CIN | 46 | -3 | 21.5 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.15 | 6.4 | 51% |
| 13 | DEN | OAK | 41 | -4 | 18.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.13 | 6.3 | 68% |
| 14 | PIT | @BAL | 41.5 | 2.5 | 22.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.11 | 6.3 | 94% |
| 15 | TEN | @HOU | 48.5 | -3.5 | 22.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.13 | 6.3 | 28% |
| 16 | HOU | TEN | 48.5 | 3.5 | 26.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.14 | 6.1 | 40% |
| 17 | CIN | CLE | 46 | 3 | 24.5 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.15 | 6.1 | 2% |
| 18 | SF | @SEA | 47.5 | -1 | 23.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.12 | 6.1 | 90% |
| 19 | ATL | @TB | 51.5 | 2 | 26.8 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.16 | 6.0 | 23% |
| 20 | JAC | IND | 44.5 | -1.5 | 21.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.11 | 5.8 | 43% |
| 21 | TB | ATL | 51.5 | -2 | 24.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.14 | 5.8 | 6% |
| 22 | IND | @JAC | 44.5 | 1.5 | 23.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.12 | 5.7 | 45% |
| 23 | DET | GB | 41.5 | 9.5 | 25.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.12 | 5.6 | 13% |
| 24 | NYG | PHI | 45.5 | 4.5 | 25.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.13 | 5.5 | 8% |
| 25 | SEA | SF | 47.5 | 1 | 24.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.12 | 5.4 | 65% |
| 26 | CHI | @MIN | 41.5 | 7 | 24.3 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.13 | 5.4 | 74% |
| 27 | OAK | @DEN | 41 | 4 | 22.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.14 | 4.9 | 11% |
| 28 | ARI | @LAR | 48.5 | 8.5 | 28.5 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.14 | 4.7 | 1% |
| 29 | WAS | @DAL | 44.5 | 13.5 | 29.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.13 | 4.6 | 7% |
| 30 | LAC | @KC | 46.5 | 7.5 | 27.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.13 | 4.4 | 41% |
| 31 | CAR | NO | 48 | 10.5 | 29.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.14 | 4.2 | 30% |
| 32 | MIA | @NE | 43.5 | 15.5 | 29.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.13 | 4.0 | 2% |
Blurbs
- GB @ DET: David Blough has been awful for four weeks now, long enough that there are rumors the Lions could dig even deeper and start Kyle Sloter. I’m currently operating under the assumption that Blough starts, but either situation is great for Green Bay.
- NE vs MIA: Another week, another chance for New England to take advantage of how terrible the rest of their division is. The Dolphins have actually been OK since Ryan Fitzpatrick took over – they even picked up their fourth win last week against the Bengals. Their success has been against pretty weak defenses though, and New England has the best defense in the league.
- NO @ CAR: To the shock of the entire football community, Will Grier was bad in his first start. He threw three interceptions, no touchdowns, and got sacked five times. It turns out that Christian McCaffrey can’t be an entire football team by himself, so the Panthers have become a dumpster fire.
- PHI @ NYG: Speaking of dumpster fires, the Eagles have a real shot of winning the NFC East with 8 wins and no wide receivers. Philadelphia’s defense isn’t stellar but should be able to shut the door on the 4-11 Giants, which would also earn them a division title. (The Eagles can only lose the division if they lose this week and the Cowboys win.)
- BUF vs NYJ: The Bills are locked for a wild card spot and are playing for a better playoff seed, and the Jets are eliminated. As far as we know the Jets are still going to play their starters, but Sam Darnold hasn’t been particularly fearsome this year, averaging an interception and more than 2.5 sacks per game.
- DAL vs WAS: Dallas can make the playoffs without a winning record if they win this week and the Eagles lose. The likely scenario is that both the Cowboys and Eagles win because Washington and New York are horrible. Dwayne Haskins is some combination of injured and benched this week, so Case Keenum will get the start. Anyone who remembers the Broncos from 2018 knows how well that will go for Washington.
- MIN vs CHI: Did you know the Bears passed on Patrick Mahomes to draft Mitchell Trubisky? If you skipped Sunday Night Football, the number of times you’ve heard that fact might not be in triple digits yet, so I figured I could help make up some of that deficit. Trubisky is a bad player with worse coaching, and the Vikings have one of the better defenses in the league and have locked a division title.
- LAR vs ARI: Kyler Murray has a hamstring issue, so it’s unclear if he’ll start this week. Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury said that Murray will start if he’s healthy, presumably in an effort to win offensive rookie of the year. If Murray sits out this is an amazing matchup for the Rams, but even if he plays, his playstyle is conducive to opposing fantasy DST scoring.
- BAL vs PIT: Mason Rudolph was only able to return for about half a game before injuring his shoulder, and has been placed on IR. That means the Devlin Hodges show will resume, which is great news for Baltimore’s defense. The Ravens have locked home-field advantage for the playoffs, but even with key starters sitting, their defense should have no trouble with Hodges and the Steelers.
- KC vs LAC: Despite a wealth of what we thought would be good fantasy weapons on the Chargers offense, they have been anemic this year, exceeding 20 points only three times, including weeks 1 and 4. Kansas City’s defense isn’t great, so the fact that LA’s implied point total is still under 20 means that Vegas has no faith at all in Phillip Rivers and company.
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Jacob Herlin is a Senior Data Analyst for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, follow him @jacoblawherlin.
