Last week, we featured our first part of a five-part series reviewing the 2019 draft round by round, starting with Round 1.
We’ll keep the ledes short going forward, and we’ll hop right into the round reviews.
In the second part of a five-part series, we’re going to review the second round of 2019 drafts and how those players performed for 2019 and where they are currently going in 2020 drafts.
We’ll be using FantasyPros 2019 ADP, and NFBC 2020 ADP (as of 1/6/2020)
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13. Alex Bregman (SS/3B – HOU)
2019 ADP: 13, 2020 ADP: 8.22
2019 stats: .296/.423/.592, 41 home runs, 122 runs, 112 RBIs, five steals
It was a career year for Bregman in 2019, who along with Michael Brantley and George Springer, carried the Houston offense. Bregman improved nearly across the board last year, setting career highs in average, on-base percentage, slugging, home runs, runs, and RBIs. It was only his steals where he saw a decrease in production.
Bregman is going to get the reputation soon that Nolan Arenado has had as a safe, high-ceiling, high-floor option in the first round. He was just on the outside looking in last year but should be a mainstay moving forward – especially if he starts running more.
2019 ADP: 13.2, 2020 ADP: 31.98
2019 stats: .298/.353/.550, 31 home runs, 89 runs, 74 RBIs, six steals
Altuve is dropping to the end of the third round after an up-and-down season last year. It was really the tale of two seasons for Altuve:
- First half: .262/.328/.454, 10 home runs, 30 runs, 25 RBIs, two steals in 55 games
- Second half: .325/.372/.622, 21 home runs, 59 runs, 49 RBIs, four steals in 69 games
The numbers don’t look too far off, besides a slight three percent increase in hard-hit rate in the second half compared to the first half. Altuve did have a 14.3 IFFB% in the first half compared to a 7.8 mark in the second half. It looks like BABIP luck on the surface, with Altuve having a .267 BABIP in the first half and a .330 in the second half – the latter which is more representative of his career.
The most concerning part of Altuve is that his steals continue to trend down, as he went from a sure-fire 30-plus stolen base guy to 17 in 2018 and six in 2019. If he doesn’t start stealing again, he’ll live in the third round.
2019 ADP: 15.2, 2020 ADP: 27.86
2019 stats: .272/.381/.540, 27 home runs, 75 runs, 55 RBIs, three steals
It was a short, injury-riddled season for Judge, as was the case for many Yankees last year. Still, in just 447 plate appearances, Judge belted 27 home runs while maintaining his underlying numbers.
Judge is a steal at 27 overall, and I’d look to take him around 15th this year.
2019 ADP: 16.4, 2020 ADP: 26.83
2019 stats: .260/.372/.510, 35 home runs, 98 runs, 114 RBIs, 15 steals
Did Harper have a bad year? If you ask the casual fan, perhaps. He still had a 4.6 WAR, a top 10 walk rate, the sixth-highest hard-hit rate (per FanGraphs) with 35 home runs.
With a healthy Andrew McCutchen, a bounceback-searching Rhys Hoskins, and newcomer Didi Gregorius, the expectations for the Phillies – and Harper – will be high once again.
He’s always going to be more valuable in leagues where walks are rewarded over batting average, but he still has one of the highest ceilings of anyone in baseball.
17. Manny Machado (3B/SS – SD)
2019 ADP: 18, 2020 ADP: 60.55
2019 stats: .256/.334/.462, 32 home runs, 81 runs, 85 RBIs, five steals
Yikes. Machado’s ADP has dipped down to Round 5 status. We knew that the move to San Diego from Baltimore was bad with the ballpark factors, but were we ready for this? He had a decrease in across the board for all of his numbers, and he was worse at home – including a .219 average – in every single category.
I like the offense and the team built around Machado in San Diego, but we need to start wondering more and more if he was built for a place like Camden Yards because his career numbers away from Baltimore are horrible.
There’s definite upside here, but I don’t think I’d take him higher than say pick 35 with the options on the board.
2019 ADP: 18, 2020 ADP: 39.45
2019 stats: .281/.316/.531, 29 home runs, 89 runs, 85 RBIs, 11 steals
Baez had similar numbers in 2019 that he did in 2018, so why is he going 21 picks later? He lost 10 steals from 2018 to 2019, as well as .009 points of batting average. I think the real reason is that shortstop is as deep as it’s ever been, which means you can wait longer this year than ever to get your shortstop and fill other voids early. If Baez comes in at 11 steals (2018 is the only year where he stole more than 20), then it’s good production, but not elite production. I’d look for him around pick 33 in drafts.
19. Paul Goldschmidt (1B – STL)
2019 ADP: 20.2, 66.78
2019 stats: .260/.346/.476, 34 home runs, 97 runs, 97 RBIs, three steals
Goldschmidt’s first season in St. Louis saw the good with the bad. He topped his 2018 numbers in homers, runs, and RBIs, but last year also brought a significantly worse triple-slash line and the continued decrease in stolen bases.
Goldschmidt, the 65th player off the boards in NFBC, has a similar Steamer projection to Trey Mancini, who is 101st off the board. You can pass him up with confidence this year. The first-round player we knew is gone.
2019 ADP: 20.2, 2020 ADP: 12.28
2019 stats: .294/.363/.554, 35 home runs, 111 runs, 85 RBIs, 23 steals
I didn’t buy 2018 Trevor Story. We saw the ups and downs that he carried throughout his career, so I wanted to see him do it again.
He did just that, and you can make a case for him in the first round of drafts – even at a deep position. He’s obviously helped by Coors Field, but that’s baked into the price. The part that I loved seeing the most is that he stole 23 bases last year after stealing 27 in 2018. He was never a big stolen base guy, so seeing that trend continue was huge last season.
If you’re looking for something to pick at, Story had the ninth-highest differential between his batting average and expected batting average among players with at least 350 plate appearances, but Steamer has regression baked into his projections.
21. Justin Verlander (SP – HOU)
2019 ADP: 21.2, 2020 ADP: 14.12
2019 stats: 21 wins, 2.58 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 0.80 WHIP, 35.4 K%, 5 BB%
There’s really no reason to doubt Verlander except his age. His run has been incredible, as he looked left for dead before getting dealt to Houston.
He increased his SwStr% last year, maintained his velocity, and he was in the 98th and 90th percentile on his fastball and curve spin rate, respectively.
The only knock on Verlander was the homers. He had a 16 percent HR/FB rate, a 1.45 HR/9 rate, and his 36 allowed home runs was the third-highest total in the league.
He’s a top-five pitcher for me still, despite turning 37 at the start of the season.
22. Giancarlo Stanton (OF – NYY)
2019 ADP: 22, 2020 ADP: 54.71
2019 stats: .288/.403/.492, three home runs, eight runs, 13 RBIs, zero steals
Yikes. That’s the only review you need to know with Stanton. He was limited to just 18 games last year due to injuries, which is the story of his career.
The pendulum may have swung too far in the other direction, though, as Stanton is projected to lead the league in homers, per Steamer. I’m looking for him in the third round, as opposed to Round 5.
23. Freddie Freeman (1B – ATL)
2019 ADP 22.4, 2020 ADP: 16.69
2019 stats: .295/.389/.549, 38 home runs, 113 runs, 121 RBIs, six steals
Freeman is another staple of consistency. You could make an argument for him in the first round, but early to mid-second round is a good landing spot for him.
If the Braves bring back Josh Donaldson, it only helps Freeman’s value.
2019 ADP: 22.8, 2020 ADP: 88.67
2019 stats: Two wins, 5.80 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 1.65 WHIP, 22.6 K%, 8.9 BB%
It truly was a wasted year for Kluber, who took a line drive off of his arm, breaking it, and resulting in just 35.2 innings thrown.
It should be noted that Kluber’s numbers were terrible before the injury, but he has a long enough track record for us not to think that a small sampled 2019 is who he truly is.
He was dealt to Texas in a questionable offseason move, where he’ll be pitching in a new ballpark that we don’t have data on yet. We do know, though, that he’ll be pitching in Oakland, Seattle, and Los Angeles more often, which is a plus.
I don’t think Kluber is an ace anymore, but I’d be OK with him as my SP3 or SP2 if I wait on pitching.
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Michael Waterloo is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MichaelWaterloo.
