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10 Players Who Are Set to Match Last Year’s Production (2020 Fantasy Football)

by Mike Tagliere | @MikeTagliereNFL | Featured Writer
Mar 21, 2020

Jarvis Landry may not be a sexy fantasy pick but he’s a good one

Every year, you’ll hear about the players who are set to break out or others who are due for positive/negative regression, but what about the players who are going to be able to replicate the season they just had?

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These are the type of players you take to build your lineup foundation with, as they’re extremely reliable and you know what you’re getting year-in and year-out. They may not win you the fantasy championship on their own, but they also won’t contribute to losing it, either.

Allen Robinson (WR – CHI)
Despite the questionable quarterback play in Chicago, Robinson continues to prove why he’s among the best receivers in the game. Some will be worried about tying their receiver to a quarterback like Mitch Trubisky/Nick Foles, but Robinson just finished as the No. 11 wide receiver in a year the Bears offense was in complete disarray. It wasn’t just one or two big performances that propped him up, either. He posted 14.5 or more PPR points 62.5 percent of the time in 2019. The only receivers who did it more often were Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, and Julio Jones.

Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN)
Some are going to be worried about A.J. Green coming back, but you shouldn’t be. In fact, Boyd produced more fantasy points per game when Green was in the lineup in 2018. Boyd has posted 1,028 yards and 1,046 yards over the last two seasons, which screams consistency despite all the parts changing around him. With Joe Burrow coming to town, it should help re-energize the entire offense. With both Green and John Ross on the perimeter, Boyd will continue to be peppered with targets over the middle of the field.

Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)
Some will say that Sutton should be a breakout candidate, though I don’t think you should expect much of a change from 2019. He plays for a defensive-minded head coach who wants to run the ball and play great defense. Drew Lock flashed some potential, but he’s not going to throw 30-plus touchdowns or anything. Sutton’s 125 targets, 72 receptions, 1,112 yards, and six touchdowns screams repeatable in his current scenario. While we could see a slight bump into the eight-touchdown range, he should be close to matching last year’s production.

Le’Veon Bell (RB – NYJ)
There are going to be a lot of fantasy owners avoiding Bell like the plague as we head into 2020, but the truth of the matter is that he was simply overvalued in 2019 drafts. I asked what the difference was between someone like him and Leonard Fournette, who was going in the third-round. But now, Bell will come as a value, as he is reliable for last year’s production. There were just 11 running backs who had a higher percentage of RB2-like performances than Bell last year and just four of them who had a higher percentage RB3 or better performances. He may lack upside, but his floor isn’t going to be the reason you lose, especially when his current ADP (average draft position) is the 40th player off the board.

Jarvis Landry (WR – CLE)
There are many times fantasy owners will pass on Landry for higher upside options. I’m guilty of it myself, but should we stop? Landry has been about as predictable as they come. Seriously, look at the scope of his career.

YEAR Rec Tgts Yds TD 0.5 PPR PPG 0.5 PPR Pts
2015 110 166 1157 4 13.4 214.36
2016 94 131 1136 4 11.5 184.3
2017 112 161 987 9 12.8 204
2018 81 149 976 4 11 176.62
2019 83 138 1174 6 12.2 195.9

 

Do we expect Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense to take a step forward in 2020? Yes, and while Odell Beckham is likely to have a much better season, Landry has proved that no matter who his quarterback is, he’s going to give you 177-214 fantasy points.

Zach Ertz (TE – PHI)
Some may look at Dallas Goedert and think Ertz is in for regression, but truth be told, he already went through some of that this year when he scored just six touchdowns on 135 targets. Ertz has now totaled at least 816 yards in each of the last five seasons but has been over 916 yards just once. With Carson Wentz (hopefully) healthy for a full season, Ertz may actually see an uptick in touchdowns to make up for the loss in targets to Goedert.

Russell Wilson (QB – SEA)
When going through the potential names to put on this list, Wilson was a lock. Every single year, fantasy owners pass on him for sexier options, but Wilson continually gets the job done. Did you know he’s scored in-between 327 and 347 fantasy points and was a top-three fantasy quarterback in four of the last six seasons? He’s thrown in-between 31-35 touchdowns in four of the last five seasons. He’s reportedly asked the Seahawks for more freedom in the passing game and that may happen, but if one thing’s for sure, he can/will repeat 2019’s stats.

David Montgomery (RB – CHI)
The idea of this article is to find players who won’t lose you the fantasy championship, even if they’re not the primary reason you win it. Despite not starting right out of the gate, Montgomery finished as the No. 25 running back on the Bears lackluster offense. He’s entrenched as the starter for them who’ll get 15-plus touches per game and his 3.7 yards per carry with seven total touchdowns is easily repeatable. Is there room for growth? Sure, but the state of their offensive line (and offense in general) won’t allow him to break out or anything. He should be considered someone who should replicate his 2019 stat line with potential for slight improvement.

Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA)
There’s surely going to be a lot of people talking about a potential D.K. Metcalf eruption, and I’m not going to disagree, but Lockett will produce in his own right. He’s playing the slot for the Seahawks, which is something that made Doug Baldwin a reliable receiver for years. When you look at them year-by-year, you can see the similarities. It’s a consistent role.

YEAR Player Rec Tgts Yds TD 0.5 PPR PPG 0.5 PPR Pts
2015 Baldwin 78 103 1069 14 14.4 229.9
2016 Baldwin 94 125 1128 7 12.9 206.6
2017 Baldwin 75 116 991 8 11.6 185.8
2018 Lockett 57 71 965 10 12.1 193.9
2019 Lockett 82 110 1057 8 12.1 194.2

 

Nick Chubb (RB – CLE)
There was certainly a draught towards the end of the year when it came to Chubb scoring touchdowns (just two in the last 10 games), which could lead some to believe positive regression, but as long as Kareem Hunt is around, he’s not someone to rely on for double-digit touchdowns. If they move on from Hunt, Chubb would have a great shot to become a top-three running back in fantasy. Chubb has now thrown up back-to-back seasons with 5.0-plus yards per carry, and the offensive line should be improved this offseason. Chubb is among the safest picks at the top of the second-round and should be able to replicate his 2019 season.


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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.

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