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2020 First Base Ranking Tiers (Fantasy Baseball)

2020 First Base Ranking Tiers (Fantasy Baseball)

First base is a really interesting position this year in fantasy baseball. In the past, this has typically been one of the deeper positions, but in the last couple of years the talent pool has thinned out a bit. In 2020, first base is probably the most top-heavy position in the game. This is definitely an important spot to know what the position looks like as a whole before drafting, so let’s break it down by tiers.

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Tier One – Lapping the Field

There is really no disputing the first tier. The only possible disagreement I can see is putting Bellinger in a tier of his own since he is a significant step ahead of Freeman in the stolen bases category and seems to have (not definitely has) more home run potential.

However, these are two incredibly safe bets for top of the league offensive contribution. Bellinger was elite by almost any metric you could find last year, really improving the strikeout rate and becoming a much more complete hitter against left-handed pitching. Freeman has always had elite hitting skills and plate patience, but he took his power production to another level last year, posting a top-ten season in most league formats.

These are both first-round bats at a position that lacks punch in the rest of the tiers, so you should feel very good getting one of these two with your first pick, and if you can somehow get Freeman with your second pick you should be letting the confetti rip.

Tier Two – The Boring Old Guys

There is a real case to be made for combining tiers two and three here, but I decided to give Rizzo and Goldy a tier of their own because of the safety element. These are not exciting picks to make, as both of these guys probably have their best seasons behind them, but they also tend to fall in drafts for that reason.

If you had owned Rizzo or Goldschmidt for the last six years, you would not have had a single season from them that you would not have been at least fine with. They are professional hitters with great plate discipline and considerable pop in their bats even given the age. These are both guys that will probably be drafted too late in your draft and offer you more safety than most hitters can.

Tier Three – You Can’t Have It All

The first four first basemen are at strong contributors at everything except stealing bases, and this tier begins the guys that are probably only offering you really strong production in three of the five standard categories (which are runs, homers, runs batted in, steals, and batting average).

Alonso is a bit controversial here in tier three. For a categories league, I just think he’s much more of a Matt Olson type (big power without offering much else) than a tier-one or two guy that will contribute in everything but steals. I don’t expect another 50+ homer season, which makes that low batting average hurt a lot more.

Olson is the most exciting pick of the bunch as he is the youngest of the group and has shown really terrific power upside. He is the only guy in this group that you can feel good about projecting for 40+ homers, but he is probably topping out around a .265 batting average upside. Abreu is the only guy that potentially offers a strong batting average, but he is getting way up there in age and has slowly been declining.

LeMahieu and Muncy are unique guys, as they both play all kinds of other positions and do different things than the guys we have already talked about. LeMahieu is a huge plus in batting average and runs scored (provided he stays at the top of the Yankees lineup), and Muncy gives you a really great OBP (if you’re into that kinda thing…) and solid homers and RBI upside in that elite Dodgers lineup. They will both cost you in a couple of categories, however, but the multi-position eligibility makes them really useful players to roster.

Tier Four – Get Polarized

Who exactly are these two guys? We have seen them both be top 20 level hitters, but we have also seen them both be drop candidates. After a few seasons of not doing much, Bell was one of the game’s best hitters in the first half of last year. He had a long stretch in the second half of really struggling, which makes him tough to get a handle on.

Hoskins has serious power and just being in that Phillies lineup brings the RBI’s to the table, but he also couldn’t hit his weight in 2019 (okay, per Baseball-Reference, he actually did hit one point higher than his weight, .226 to 225). If you play in an OBP league he is an awesome guy to grab with his ridiculous walk rate, but in a batting average league, he is a total crater for you in that category plus steals.

Both of these guys have tier two level upside, but you are rolling the dice big time when drafting them.

Tier Five – Time To Take a Nap

All of these guys were more than good enough in 2019 to warrant a starting job on your fantasy roster, but drafting them in 2020 elicits a big yawn from me (and I bet you’ll be yawning too in a couple of seconds after reading me talk about yawns – check it out!).

Mancini has been a legitimately very good hitter for two years now, but he still just doesn’t feel all that exciting given the lack of being elite in any category and playing for the Orioles. Yuli has been one of the more inconsistent players in the league in recent years and jammed most of his production into a two-month span last summer.

The Santanas are interesting for their own reasons. Carlos takes a big leap in an OBP league, and Danny offers stolen base upside that is hard to find this deep into a draft. Both of them had incredible 2019 seasons, but due to the age on Carlos and the advanced metrics on Danny, it’s hard to foresee a repeat.

Tier Six – The Participation Trophies

There is not a single batting average above .260 in this group, and the playing time concerns start here. These guys should probably be utility or bench bats for your team if you’re drafting them.

Encarnacion offers some late-round power if you can get over the fact that he is 37 years old. Voit and Pederson have been very solid sources of power for a few years now, but are not guaranteed regular playing time.

Walker broke out a bit last year but ended up with a stat line that is very replaceable in today’s game. Eric Hosmer is, well, Eric Hosmer. You can do better.

Tier Seven – Category Specialists

None of these guys need to be drafted in normal leagues, but they all do offer something to your team in a categories league.

Votto and Murphy can give you a late boost in batting average and on-base percentage, but shouldn’t be counted on for even 20 homers at this point in their careers. Chavis lit the league on fire for a couple of weeks after his call-up before the league adjusted, but there is definitely some upside there.

Cron is a Statcast darling who is one of the best late-round picks in the home runs category, and Diaz is a nice bench addition in an OBP league.

Key Takeaways

Bellinger and Freeman are way ahead of the rest of the pack here, which makes them guys to be aggressive on in the first round. I don’t think you can justify taking them with a top-four pick, but anything after that is perfectly fine just because of the opportunity cost.

After that, you have an even spread of boring but reliable hitters and high risk/high reward options. There are also a good amount of guys you can get really late that can give you a really nice boost in a category you’re hurting for.

My recommendation would be that this is a position you can wait on if you can’t get your hands on the first tier. A lot of these guys look pretty similar, and a guy like Mancini or Carlos Santana makes a fine starter at first base that you can draft pretty late. Mix in a high-upside guy like Voit and a boring category specialist like Votto and you’ll be just fine.

The best way to get more knowledge about how the first base position shakes out is by practicing! Check out our mock drafting application and start getting a leg up on the competition.

2020 Shortstop Ranking Tiers
2020 Third Base Ranking Tiers

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Jon Anderson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jon, check out his archive and follow him@JonPgh.

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