Justin Herbert, Oregon
Height: 6’6″
Weight: 236 pounds
40-yard dash: 4.71 seconds
Hand Size: 10.0 inches
Go back a few years and Herbert was projected to be a top-three draft pick. Fast-forward and now there are questions on whether he’ll go inside the top-10. He’s got the size you want in a quarterback at 6-foot-6 and 236 pounds. He also has the arm to make every single throw on the field, as he continually showed at the NFL Combine. So, what has him falling outside the top-10?
While at Oregon, Herbert completed 64.0 percent of his passes, which is relatively average. The good news is that he bounced back after his 2018 season netted a piddly 59.4 percent completion-rate, and completed 66.8 percent of his passes in 2019. All-in-all, he threw 95 touchdowns and 23 interceptions in 43 career games. The worrisome part is that there were 6-of-14 games in 2019 where he threw 0-1 touchdowns. On the collegiate level, that’s a bit worrisome.
Here’s my detailed scouting report on Justin Herbert (ratings out of five stars):
Arm Strength/Throwing Mechanics
His mechanics are nearly perfect when he’s given time to stand tall in the pocket. Keeps the ball high, shields the ball with his left arm, and follows through extremely well. When there’s a hint of pressure, he’ll drop his back shoulder further than he should and throw off his back foot. That starts attributing to accuracy issues. Arm strength is not a problem, as he can make every throw and can put some velocity on it. He can even throw the ball extremely far down the field while moving to his left, something not every quarterback can do. He may have the best overall arm in the draft class.
RATING: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 1/2
Accuracy
This is a very inconsistent part of his game, as he often throws behind his receivers, even when throwing in rhythm. When he’s on the move and not standing tall in the pocket, it only highlights his accuracy problems. You can easily see he’s aiming throws at times, which is the worst thing a quarterback can do. They have to drop back and trust their arm/ability.
RATING: ⭐⭐
Mobility
He has some mobility to his game for a guy who’s 6-foot-6 and 236 pounds, though you don’t want to be running options with him any time soon. His mobility is more about buying time to find an open receiver than rushing for a couple hundred yards per season.
RATING: ⭐⭐⭐
Pocket Awareness
This is the most worrisome part of his game. He gets happy feet when there’s pressure coming his way, doesn’t operate under the same calmness that guys like Burrow and Tagovailoa do. There are times he feels pressure that isn’t there, sliding the pocket when he doesn’t need to. He’s essentially the anti-Tom Brady. We’ve seen this destroy young quarterbacks in the past, and it will surely have NFL teams concerned. He’s also coming from a shotgun-based offense, which will lead to some transition issues.
RATING: ⭐ 1/2
Vision/Decision-Making
He almost knows where he’s going with the ball before the ball is snapped, doesn’t scan the field as you’d hope. His progressions typically go from deep, straight to check-down. It’s why he doesn’t throw many interceptions, as he doesn’t take many chances. There are times where the play will completely break down, flushing him out of the pocket, leaving him searching all around, and then he throws the ball to a receiver with no defender within 10 yards of him. While it looks good on the stat sheet, it highlights that he struggles to work his way through progressions and doesn’t recognize broken coverages as fast as he needs to.
RATING: ⭐⭐
Anticipation
He’s more of a throw it to a spot type quarterback, as it’s why he often fails to hit a receiver in stride. His anticipation doesn’t look too bad when throwing to his first read, but everything falls apart once that’s not there, as he’s lost. This ties into his accuracy, as he looks solid when he’s able to stand tall in the pocket and hit his wide receiver in stride, but when things break down, he’s throwing to a spot and aiming rather than leading his receivers.
RATING: ⭐⭐
Projected Draft Spot
With how many QB-needy teams there are in the league, Herbert is going to go in the first-round. Is it right? Time will tell but from what I’ve seen, I don’t think teams should reach or trade up to make it work. Ideally, he’s in a quick-hitting west coast style offense, as it’d get the ball out of his hands extremely quick, though he’s not likely to make it back to a team like the Saints. The Raiders run somewhat of a quick-hitting offense and we’ve heard the whispers about them shopping Derek Carr, so we could see Herbert as his successor, though the Marcus Mariota signing may put a damper on that.
NFL Comparison
When watching Herbert, he’s kind of like a more mobile version of Joe Flacco. He has a massive arm and great mechanics, while also having the ideal structure for a quarterback. Flacco’s also someone who checked down quite often in his NFL career despite having the arm to get the ball down the field. The area they differ the most is mobility, as Herbert certainly offers more on that front with his ability to extend plays.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.