The Los Angeles Rams parted ways with Todd Gurley this week, and the University of Georgia product leaves some huge shoes to fill in Sean McVay’s offense. We know why the Rams did it — they have been mired in salary cap hell since overpaying players like Jared Goff — but it was a surprising move nonetheless.
How does this affect the guys left standing in Los Angeles? Well, the Rams tried to limit Gurley’s snaps last year, so we got plenty of data points on Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown last season. Los Angeles could also make a move in free agency or the draft, however, so don’t consider either of them locks to see more touches.
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The Situation
The Rams ran the ball 401 times last season, but they logged just 1,499 yards in the process. Their 93.7 yards per game ranked seventh-worst. Yet they also scored 20 rushing touchdowns, which ranks fourth-best across the NFL. Why were they so inefficient last year, and how will things play out next year? Let’s take a look at the people behind the running backs to see the bigger picture.
Coaching Staff
Sean McVay reduced Gurley’s workload in 2019, and while he denied doing so deliberately, it was certainly noticeable. It didn’t work out for the offensive guru, as his team finished Week 10 with a mediocre 5-4 record. The head coach pointed to that week’s game against the Steelers as a turning point, however, and he started getting Gurley more involved.
When asked why he made the change, he told reporters it was “me not being an idiot.”
The Rams’ run/pass balance changed in 2019. The team went from 29 rushing attempts per game in 2018 to 25.1 last year, which put them 17th in the league. That decline may have been due to their inefficiency on the ground and their need to play from behind. While I expect McVay to try to reinvigorate his running game in 2020, there’s no guarantee that he’ll succeed in doing so.
Offensive Line
Whoever replaces Gurley will have their work cut out for them next season. The Rams’ offensive line ranked 31st according to ProFootballFocus, as losing John Sullivan and Rodger Saffold proved too much for them to bear. Although Los Angeles hasn’t brought in a new offensive lineman in free agency yet, they’ve re-signed Andrew Whitworth and Austin Blythe for 2020. The Rams will need to draft an offensive lineman or two if they want to compete next season.
Tight Ends
This position is actually a bright spot for Los Angeles. Both Tyler Higbee and Johnny Mundt have worked well as blockers for the Rams’ running backs, and both remain under contract for 2020. Although Higbee’s contributions have been well-documented, it’s easy to forget about Mundt — but the reserve player graded out as ProFootballFocus’ eighth-best tight end in run blocking last year. So while the Rams need to shore up their offensive line, their running backs will get some vital support from their tight ends.
The Replacements
Out of the Rams’ 401 rushing attempts last year, Gurley logged 223. At a mediocre 3.75 yards per carry, those rushing attempts would translate into 83.6 fantasy points. But McVay loves to run the red-zone, as Gurley scored 14 times last year, which gives his potential replacement even more fantasy value. Let’s take a look at the guys who may see a more significant workload next season.
Darrell Henderson
Right now, Henderson is the best bet to replace Gurley. The Rams traded up to take him in the third round last year, but hasn’t lived up to his draft status quite yet. McVay only gave him 39 rushing attempts in 13 games last year despite considerable preseason hype.
Don't let Darrell Henderson get going ?@DarrellH8 | #DALvsLAR on @NFLNetwork pic.twitter.com/qV3ADwSHmQ
— NFL (@NFL) August 18, 2019
One of Henderson’s best performance during the regular season came in Week 6 against San Francisco. He broke off an impressive 22-yard run despite poor blocking, and he logged 39 total rushing yards on six carries. But after the Rams’ Week 9 bye, Henderson touched the ball just 10 more times.
There’s still a chance for Henderson to rebound, but he may never do so without some wholesale changes to the Rams’ offensive line. The hype surrounding him as a potential starter is worth cashing in on while you still can.
Verdict: Sell high
Malcolm Brown
Brown out-played Henderson in 2019, but there’s no reason to think the Rams expect their sixth-year backup to become a workhorse. Brown earned a career-high 69 rushing attempts in 2019, and he scored an impressive five rushing touchdowns in the process.
Malcolm Brown @NFLFantasy owners are smiling right now. #LARams #LARvsCAR @MallyCat_28
?: FOX
?: NFL app // Yahoo Sports appWatch on mobile: https://t.co/PoZiStO3mL pic.twitter.com/9UT2JhxdAu
— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2019
Unlike Henderson, there’s not as much hype surrounding Brown. Before the Gurley news, Henderson ranked as the RB47 according to FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR), while Brown was the RB66. That’s below free agents Chris Thompson (RB62) and Dion Lewis (RB65).
Give Brown an add if he’s on waivers in your dynasty league. He may not become the workhorse, but you can expect him to earn enough touches next season to have some fantasy value. And McVay trusts him, which is more than can we can say about Henderson.
Verdict: Buy — if he’s free
Someone Else
It’s still before the NFL Draft and the end of free agency. The Rams have plenty of time to add another running back to their stable, and he may end up out-producing both Henderson and Brown. And given Henderson’s struggles, there’s a good chance the Week 1 starter isn’t even on Los Angeles’ roster yet.
So who could they end up with? It’s unlikely that they’ll want to dedicate much cap space to the position, so look for them to add a cheap veteran or a rookie. I could seem them getting Devonta Freeman for the right price.
The Rams also spent time meeting with running backs at the combine, which does not bode well for their confidence in Henderson. They talked to Utah’s Zack Moss, UCLA’s Joshua Kelley, and App State’s Darrynton Evans, and one of the three could end up on Los Angeles’ roster as a late-round selection. The Rams have two third-round picks, a fourth-rounder, and a sixth-rounder that they could use to land one of these guys.
Verdict: Buy whoever the Rams sign or draft next
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.
