Game-By-Game Projections: Russell Wilson (2020 Fantasy Football)
It may surprise you to know that Russell Wilson is the only quarterback to throw for at least 100 touchdowns over the last three seasons, tossing exactly that many from 2017-2019. The next closest quarterback is Tom Brady with 85 in that same span. What’s even more impressive about this feat is that Wilson has dealt with poor offensive line play (he was sacked a league-worst 48 times in 2019) and the lack of a true No. 1 receiver while leading a run-first offense with limited passing attempts (499 per season). He’s not a guy who will throw for monster yardage, but his accuracy, steady play on the road and at home, rushing abilities and touchdown-upside make him a reliable QB1 year after year. That’s unlikely to change in 2020, as Wilson will get another year with rising star D.K. Metcalf, a veteran target in Greg Olsen, a burner in Phillip Dorsett, and a revamped o-line. Here’s a breakdown of how things could shake out for DangeRuss this season game-by-game.
Note: Fantasy scoring based on FantasyPros standard scoring methodology found here.
Week 1: @ Falcons
It’s hard not to envision a shootout with the high-octane Falcons in this battle of the birds. Atlanta’s defense has been one of the most generous to opposing field generals over the last two seasons, and the Falcons offense is plenty capable of putting up points. Expect Wilson to have his way when Seattle travels to Mercedes-Benz Stadium for the season opener.
Predicted stat line: 330 pass yards, 3 pass TDs, 0 interceptions; 35 rush yards, 0 rush TDs (28.7 fantasy points)
Week 2: vs. Patriots
New England’s defense is no joke, and despite falling off on the back-half of 2019, the unit started last season on a ridiculous tear. The Tom Brady era is done, and with a highly suspect array of talent on offense and a first-time starter in Jarrett Stidham, Bill Belichick will almost certainly hang his hat on defense. Seattle likes to pound the rock, and the Pats excel in the secondary, setting the stage for a smash-mouth game on Sunday Night Football. Seattle should handle its business with ease in the home-opener, with Stidham stifled by the noise of the 12th Man. Wilson won’t be asked to do a lot here.
Predicted stat line: 190 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 1 interception; 26 rush yards, 0 rush TDs (13.2 fantasy points)
Week 3: vs. Cowboys
Seattle will be home for the second straight week, and a visit from Dak Prescott and Co. should present a tougher challenge than Week 2 against New England. Dallas’ defense is no pushover, and the Cowboys have a lot of firepower on offense. Dak is gunning for a contract similar to Wilson’s lucrative deal, so there should be some added motivation. A high-scoring game is likely in the cards.
Predicted stat line: 240 pass yards, 2 pass TDs, 1 interception; 28 rush yards, 1 rush TD (25.4 fantasy points)
Week 4: @ Dolphins
Seattle should come away victorious, but this is a sneaky matchup for Wilson and the ‘Hawks as they travel across the country to play in the humid South Florida weather. Don’t expect a cakewalk for No. 3 in this contest, playing against a new-look Miami squad looking to make some noise.
Predicted stat line: 265 pass yards, 2 pass TDs, 0 interceptions; 25 rush yards, 0 rush TDs (21.1 fantasy points)
Week 5: Vikings
Home matchups are always positive for Seattle, but Minnesota’s defense is formidable nonetheless. Expect at least one turnover in this one with limited touchdown appeal as Seattle heads into its bye week.
Predicted stat line: 233 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 1 interception; 17 rush yards, 0 rush TDs (14.0 fantasy points)
Week 6: BYE
Week 7: @ Cardinals
Arizona’s defense was dreadful last season, but it was particularly poor against the run. Seattle should try to establish the ground game early and often, but Arizona’s offense looks surprisingly competent, meaning Wilson could be asked to keep pace with second-year quarterback Kyler Murray and new addition DeAndre Hopkins when Seattle heads to the desert.
Predicted stat line: 310 pass yards, 2 pass TDs, 0 interceptions; 52 rush yards, 0 rush TDs (25.6 fantasy points)
Week 8: vs. 49ers
Seattle will face one of its toughest opponents in the reigning NFC champs, but Wilson performed well against San Francisco last season. Both meetings of the division rivals are sure to be important to the playoff picture and Wilson usually delivers in crunch time. Squaring off against the Niners defense probably calls for a pick, though.
Predicted stat line: 224 pass yards, 2 pass TDs, 1 interception; 22 rush yards, 0 rush TDs (18.2 fantasy points)
Week 9: @ Bills
It’s another cross-country trip for Seattle, as Wilson faces off against a ferocious Bills team hungry to establish itself as a legitimate contender. This could easily shape up to be a defensive battle, so Wilson’s stat line could be a little lighter than usual.
Predicted stat line: 199 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 1 interceptions; 30 rush yards, 0 rush TDs (14.0 fantasy points)
Week 10: @ Rams
The Rams defense isn’t what it once was, and Wilson shouldn’t be limited in this one. A high-scoring game could unfold in this NFC West showdown, so look for Wilson to have one of his better passing games of the year.
Predicted stat line: 360 pass yards, 3 pass TDs, 0 interceptions; 34 rush yards, 0 rush TDs (29.8 fantasy points)
Week 11: vs. Cardinals
It’s tough to predict Thursday Night games, and the Seahawks will be playing a divisional matchup on a short week after traveling to Los Angeles in Week 10. Wilson doesn’t shy away from the bright lights, but it’s hard to envision him exploding in this scenario – despite the exploitable opponent.
Predicted stat line: 225 pass yards, 2 pass TDs, 1 interceptions; 27 rush yards, 0 rush TDs (18.7 fantasy points)
Week 12: @ Eagles
Wilson returns for another primetime game in Week 12, but this time it’s on Monday Night. A 10-day respite should give Seattle some extra juice, and this game should have some postseason implications. Both teams should be fired up on MNF.
Predicted stat line: 280 pass yards, 3 pass TDs, 1 interception; 19 rush yards, 0 rush TDs (24.1 fantasy points)
Week 13: vs. Giants
New York is on a positive upswing, but they won’t be a contender in 2020. Wilson and the ‘Hawks should dispense Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley handily in front of the raucous crowd at CenturyLink Field. A couple long-ball touchdowns is all he’ll need to provide a serviceable fantasy line in Week 13, but let’s tack on a third score for good measure.
Predicted stat line: 244 pass yards, 3 pass TDs, 0 interceptions; 36 rush yards, 0 rush TDs (31.4 fantasy points)
Week 14: vs. Jets
The Seahawks get another home game in Week 14, but this time, they’ll face Jamal Adams and Gregg Williams’ solid defense. Facing a stronger defense, Wilson is unlikely to find the same success against Gang Green as he should against the G-Men. Seattle should get the dub, but this is another tricky AFC East matchup.
Predicted stat line: 220 pass yards, 2 pass TDs, 1 interception; 13 rush yards, 0 rush TDs (17.1 fantasy points)
Week 15: @ Redskins
Washington is unlikely to put up much of a fight against Seattle, and the talent disparity here is pretty noticeable. It’s another game where Wilson should be able to lean on his run game and defense while playing game manager. This one certainly has blowout potential.
Predicted stat line: 215 pass yards, 2 pass TDs, 0 interceptions; 10 rush yards, 0 rush TDs (17.6 fantasy points)
Week 16: vs. Rams
Seattle plays its last home game against L.A. here, and the ‘Hawks should be in playoff mode by this point. However, with San Francisco looming in Week 17, this game feels like it won’t have the same uptempo feel as the first matchup should provide.
Predicted stat line: 258 pass yards, 2 pass TDs, 0 interceptions; 36 rush yards, 0 rush TDs (21.9 fantasy points)
Week 17: @ 49ers
The final game of the season could have major playoff implications, just as Seattle and San Francisco’s final matchup of 2019 did. This rivalry provided some classic moments last season, and Week 17’s finale should be no different. Wilson will toss a couple of picks, but he’ll tough out a goal-line rushing score to boost his fantasy stock.
Predicted stat line: 247 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 2 interceptions; 12 rush yards, 1 rush TDs (23.1 fantasy points)
|WEEK||OPP||PASS YDs||PASS TDs||INTs||RUSH YDs||RUSH TDs||PTS|
Wilson’s numbers look very similar to the ones he posted in 2019, with a few exceptions. My projections have him falling back to earth a bit in TD:INT ratio, with nearly double the picks. The passing yards are nearly identical, though I have him slated to toss a couple extra touchdowns and rush for 80 more yards than he did last season. Wilson has some exploitable matchups on the schedule, notably the Falcons, Rams, Giants, and Cardinals, while there are some matchups against AFC East opponents that could prove less-than-ideal. I expect the ever-reliable Wilson to post strong numbers once again and toss at least 30 tuddies for the fourth straight season. He’s currently the QB5 based on our early Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR), but a top-3 finish wouldn’t be surprising at all.
2019 stats: 4,110 pass yards, 31 TD, 5 INT, 342 rush yards, 3 TD
2020 prediction: 4,093 pass yards, 33 TD, 9 INT, 422 rush yards, 3 TD