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Game-By-Game Projections: Tom Brady (2020 Fantasy Football)

Jun 22, 2020

Tom Brady might now have the best receiving corps of his career

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Below are the game-by-game projections for Tom Brady. It takes into account all factors from athletic profile and volume of touches to offensive line talent, surrounding skill player talent, matchups, game scripts, and the likelihood of injury to Brady and those surrounding him. Let’s take a look at his game by game expectations in 2020.

You can find our entire 2020 Player Game-By-Game Projection series here.

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Week 1: @ New Orleans Saints
We’ve been given a heck of a Week 1 matchup between Brady’s high-powered Bucs and the always electric Saints. If Tampa gets down, expect to see Brady air it out more often than usual. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, this Saints defense is the real deal and Brady is only able to get it into the end zone once.

Predicted stat line: 23/44, 267 yds, 1 TDs, 2 INTs, 4 rush yds, 0 rush TDs, 13.1 fantasy pts


Week 2: vs Carolina Panthers
In nearly a complete opposite Week 2 game, Tampa gets up early against a dreadful Panthers defense at home. As a result, the passing slows significantly in the second half but much of the damage is already done as Brady gives fantasy owners a top 12 QB performance. 

Predicted stat line: 18/23, 245 yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 0 rush yds, 0 rush TDs, 20.8 fantasy pts


Week 3: @ Denver Broncos
Although the Bucs improved their offensive line quite a bit this off-season, they might need some time to gel before they can slow down a pass rush like Von Miller, Bradley Chubb and the Broncos. Not only that, but Denver has an exceptional secondary too.

Predicted stat line: 18/35, 216 yds, 1 TDs, 1 INT, 0 rush yds, 0 rush TDs, 11.6 fantasy pts


Week 4: vs Los Angeles Chargers
You may have noticed that Tom Brady‘s interceptions are much higher than you are used to seeing. He’ll be playing in a much different offense and Bruce Arians QBs tend to throw INTs at a much higher clip than their career norms. Add in the fact that Brady is now 43 years old and perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised.

Predicted stat line: 19/34, 204 yds, 1 TDs, 1 INT, 7 rush yds, 0 rush TDs, 11.9 fantasy pts


Week 5: @ Chicago Bears
The struggle continues as Brady draws his fourth challenging secondary in the first five weeks. Once again, he fails to reach the top 12 QB threshold and fantasy owners are pulling out their hair with Brady currently the QB22 through five weeks despite playing with his best-receiving corps ever.

Predicted stat line: 15/28, 150 yds, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 0 rush yds, 0 rush TDs, 5.0 fantasy pts


Week 6: vs Green Bay Packers
After Brady’s ownership finally dips below 50%, he pulls out a solid game at home against a subpar Packers’ secondary. He tosses 37 passes for over 300 yards and multiple TDs in this shootout with Aaron Rodgers.

Predicted stat line: 23/37, 304 yds, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 3 rush yds, 0 rush TDs, 20.5 fantasy pts


Week 7: @ Las Vegas Raiders
Brady has come into a nice stretch of the schedule against a few lackluster defenses. Once again, he surpasses the 300-yard mark with multiple scores even without having to pass the ball 30 times in a blowout.

Predicted stat line: 20/29, 321 yds, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 1 rush yds, 0 rush TDs, 20.9 fantasy pts


Week 8: @ New York Giants
What do we have here!? You know the blowup is going to happen eventually when Brady has Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski to throw to. That is the frustrating part of owning second-tier fantasy QBs, though, is that you can’t often tell when it will happen and there are always rough games sprinkled between.

Predicted stat line: 27/36, 355 yds, 5 TDs, 1 INT, 4 rush yds, 0 rush TDs, 33.6 fantasy pts


Week 9: vs New Orleans Saints
Brady keeps rolling with a shootout at home against the Saints. This marks his fourth consecutive QB1 game and brings him up from QB #22 through five weeks to QB #8 through nine weeks.

Predicted stat line: 24/40, 260 yds, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 5 rush yds, 0 rush TDs, 22.9 fantasy pts


Week 10: @ Carolina Panthers
Although Brady had his way with the Panthers in Week 2 from a fantasy perspective, touchdowns can be volatile. Perhaps the running game will steal the majority of the TDs in this high-efficiency blowout. That happens from time to time which is why drafting QBs high is such a risky investment.

Predicted stat line: 17/25, 221 yds, 1 TDs, 0 INTs, 1 rush yds, 0 rush TDs, 12.9 fantasy pts


Week 11: vs Los Angeles Rams
The Rams will likely be awful this season with the league’s worst offensive line, a struggling quarterback and a mediocre at best defense. For the second straight week, Brady and the Bucs blow out their visitors and Brady is limited to just 24 pass attempts.

Predicted stat line: 16/24, 194 yds, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 12 rush yds, 0 rush TDs, 17.0 fantasy pts


Week 12: vs Kansas City Chiefs
Circle this game on your calendar because there will be serious fireworks. Right? Well, Brady may pass the ball more in this game than any other all season, but let’s not overlook the fact that over the second half last season, Kansas City had the best defense in football.

Predicted stat line: 28/45, 306 yds, 1 TDs, 2 INTs, 2 rush yds, 0 rush TDs, 14.4 fantasy pts


Week 13: BYE WEEK


Week 14: vs Minnesota Vikings
Fresh off the bye week, Brady posts a pedestrian stat line in Week 1 of the fantasy playoffs against a strong Minnesota defense. His QB #20 performance doesn’t kill fantasy owners, though, because he isn’t started in most leagues because of the matchup.

Predicted stat line: 21/38, 273 yds, 1 TDs, 1 INT, 2 rush yds, 0 rush TDs, 14.1 fantasy pts


Week 15: @ Atlanta Falcons
Brady is a hot streaming option in Week 15 playing in Atlanta’s dome against their lousy secondary and he most certainly doesn’t disappoint, tossing out a season-high 400+ passing yards to go with three total touchdowns for the #1 QB line of the weekend.

Predicted stat line: 32/49, 402 yds, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 4 rush yds, 1 rush TDs, 30.5 fantasy pts


Week 16: @ Detroit Lions
Onto championship week, many Brady owners stay loyal to the man who carries them to a Week 15 win rather than opting with the week’s top streamers (Derek Carr vs MIA and Matt Ryan @ KC). Brady has a decent matchup in Detroit but isn’t able to pick up even one touchdown.

Predicted stat line: 21/31, 248 yds, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 2 rush yds, 0 rush TDs, 10.1 fantasy pts


Week 17: vs Atlanta Falcons
Although the fantasy season is over, Brady still has his easiest matchup of the season, at home against the Falcons. He tallies another solid performance in a high-scoring win, booking Tampa a ticket in the playoffs.

Predicted stat line: 28/38, 257 yds, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 1 rush yds, 0 rush TDs, 18.4 fantasy pts

2020 Season Totals

See the chart below for full weekly stat breakdowns (for half-PPR leagues) along with season totals:

Week Opponent Pass Att Comp Pass Yds Pass TDs INTs Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points
1 @ NO 44 23 267 1 2 4 0 13.1
2 vs CAR 23 18 245 3 1 0 0 20.8
3 @ DEN 35 18 216 1 1 0 0 11.6
4 vs LAC 34 19 204 1 1 7 0 11.9
5 @ CHI 28 15 150 0 1 0 0 5.0
6 vs GB 37 23 304 2 0 3 0 20.5
7 @ LV 29 20 321 2 0 1 0 20.9
8 @ NYG 36 27 355 5 1 4 0 33.6
9 vs NO 40 24 260 3 0 5 0 22.9
10 @ CAR 25 17 221 1 0 1 0 12.9
11 vs LAR 24 16 194 2 0 12 0 17.0
12 vs KC 45 28 306 1 2 2 0 14.4
14 vs MIN 38 21 273 1 1 2 0 14.1
15 @ ATL 49 32 402 2 0 4 1 30.5
16 @ DET 31 21 248 0 0 2 0 10.1
17 vs ATL 38 28 257 2 0 1 0 18.4
TOTAL 556 350 4223 27 10 48 1 277.7

 

Summary

Just like last season, Brady’s 270+ fantasy points lands him as the #12 fantasy quarterback and #16 in fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, the road isn’t pretty, as he only posts six QB1 performances in 15 fantasy starts including just one in the first five weeks. Towards the end of the season, Brady is viewed as nothing more than a streamer, which is more often than not the case for fantasy QBs drafted outside of the top five or six.

Brady has some ridiculous weapons but as a 43-year-old coming off his worst season since 2002, it’s difficult to make sense of wasting an 8th round pick on him. Rather, if you don’t get one of the top seven QBs (Jackson, Mahomes, Prescott, Murray, Wilson, Watson or Allen), wait a few rounds and target a Week 1 streaming quarterback (Tyrod Taylor @ CIN, Jimmy Garoppolo vs ARI or Derek Carr @ CAR). They won’t help as much over the course of a full season, but then again, they are all better starts in Week 1 than Brady and you can probably find a better streamer in each of the next four weeks as well.

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