Week 2 NFL DFS Stacking Advice (2020)
While we don’t want to overreact to the first week, we still gained valuable information that can help influence our decisions moving forward. After a successful Week 1, let’s take a look at the DFS Main Slate for the second week of NFL action.
When looking at an NFL DFS slate, I usually begin with these two steps:
- Examining Implied Team Totals and Game Over/Unders
- Identifying Teams to Target and Possible Stacks
Each week, I will share my findings with you after I have completed these first two steps. Throughout this piece, I will reference implied team totals, winning probabilities, and game over/unders that are acquired from our consensus odds collected over at BettingPros.com.
Games/Teams to Target
- Baltimore @ Houston (Over/Under 52.0)
- Baltimore Team Total: 29.5
- Houston Team Total: 22.5
- Atlanta @ Dallas (Over/Under 50.0)
- Dallas Team Total: 27.5
- Atlanta Team Total: 22.5
- Detroit @ Green Bay (Over/Under 49.5)
- Green Bay Team Total: 27.75
- Detroit Team Total: 21.75
- Minnesota @ Indianapolis (Over/Under 48.5)
- Indianapolis Team Total: 25.75
- Minnesota Team Total: 22.75
DFS Stacks to Target
All salaries are from FanDuel, but these stacks can be utilized on DraftKings as well.
Matt Ryan (QB – ATL): $7,700 / Calvin Ridley (WR – ATL): $7,100
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The Falcons and Cowboys figure to be part of many shootouts this year, as they are clubs with prolific offenses and mediocre defenses. Ryan completed 37 of 54 pass attempts for 450 yards and two scores, both of which went to Ridley. While he does not offer rushing upside, Ryan should see plenty of passing volume in this contest, as his Falcons are five-point underdogs heading into Jerry World.
Ridley is $1,100 cheaper than teammate Julio Jones on FanDuel, and the younger receiver offers a $600 discount from the veteran over on DraftKings. After each tallied 12 targets and over 100 receiving yards on Sunday, Ridley and Jones should continue to command a large percentage of targets in a high-volume Falcons passing game. I also like the idea of bringing it back in this game with Ezekiel Elliott ($8,600) of the Cowboys. If Dallas gets out to an early lead, then they can lean on their workhorse back while Matt Ryan and his receiving options play from behind.
Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB): $7,900 / Davante Adams (WR – GB): $8,600
Perhaps the first-round draft selection of quarterback Jordan Love back in April’s NFL Draft was the motivation that Aaron Rodgers needed to prove himself as one of the league’s best signal-callers. The Cal Bear put on an absolute clinic in Week 1 as he tore up the Vikings defense on his way to 364 passing yards and four touchdowns. His Week 2 opponent just surrendered 242 passing yards and three passing scores to Mitchell Trubisky. I have a strong suspicion that Aaron Rodgers will continue his aerial assault on the NFC North in this matchup.
Though he is the most expensive receiver on the slate, Adams could certainly return value if he gets the same type of volume that he did in Week 1. He hauled in 14 receptions on 17 targets as he shredded the Minnesota secondary for 156 receiving yards and two scores. Adams is as good of a bet as any receiver in the league to record double-digit receptions each week, but he also is one of the most likely to reach paydirt. That combination makes him worth his salary more often than not. I particularly like this stack if Kenny Golladay ($7,500) is back healthy for Detroit, and you might bring it back with him. Green Bay surrendered over 100 yards and two scores to Adam Thielen in Week 1.
Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN): $7,400 / Adam Thielen (WR – MIN): $7,300
Speaking of the Vikings, this QB/WR stack seems to be one of the best values on the entire slate. As they were playing from behind against the Packers, Adam Thielen saw eight targets out of Kirk Cousins’ 25 passing attempts for a target share of 32%. With the targets so consolidated towards his number one target, we can expect a lot of Kirk Cousins’ passing production to be generated by Thielen.
The Vikings are three-point underdogs as they get set to play indoors at Indianapolis. The Colts just allowed Gardner Minshew to complete 95% (not a typo) of his passes and toss three touchdown passes in Week 1. An accurate passer like Kirk Cousins can have similar success against such a defense. We can bring it back with Jonathan Taylor ($5,800) of the Colts in this contest as well. Following the unfortunate Achilles injury to Marlon Mack, the rookie was extremely involved, as he recorded six receptions and nine carries to total 89 total yards. He figures to be the workhorse back, and he offers salary relief at a loaded running back position while playing for a home favorite.
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.