We’re on to Week 8! We’ve got a divisional showdown between the Ravens and Steelers this week, and if you keep reading, I think that’s a good matchup to target at some daily fantasy sport (DFS) sites this week.
The DFS market has exploded in recent years, and you’ve got a plethora of options aside from the big-names of DraftKings and FanDuel. No House Advantage (NHA) is one such upstart competitor, and the site has eschewed the traditional salary cap structure in favor of ranked prop bets.
What does that mean? At NHA, you must pick a set number of individual player prop lines, take the over or under, and put them in order. The higher you rank a line, the more points you receive if it hits.
If you’re an experienced DFS player, you know that the payout structure will dictate your strategy. For this week’s 290-person $4,000 Sunday Kickoff contest, 50% of the prize pool goes to first place. This column earned an overall 26-9 record on NBA bets, and that included three perfect lineups. I went 20-8 on the NFL through four weeks, and my Week 4 picks were two Kenny Golladay receiving yards away from perfection. After a four-week break, let’s get back on our grind at NHA!
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Best High-Priority Prop Plays
Derek Carr (LV): OVER 249.5 Passing Yards (S)
I’m going to stack the Browns/Raiders game this week. With a projected point total of 49.5, it’s unlikely to be the highest-scoring game ever, but the lines we’re targeting are set low enough that it doesn’t need to be.
I’m targeting this line because Carr is averaging almost 40 more passing yards per game (287.7). He has finished with fewer than 250 passing yards just once this season, and it was back in Week 1. That’s when Josh Jacobs ran for 93 yards and three scores against the Panthers.
Carr has been passing further downfield than usual this season, and I’m expecting him to keep that up, especially against a Cleveland defense that’s giving up an average of 306.1 passing yards per game to quarterbacks.
Darren Waller (LV): OVER 5.5 Receptions (S)
Let’s stack Carr with his tight end, Darren Waller. Waller is averaging 9.17 targets and 6.67 catches per game, which is more than a full catch above his posted line.
Waller has finished with at least six catches in all but two of his games. One of those came after he got hurt against the Saints on Monday and played the Patriots on Sunday; the other came against the Chiefs. Both of those teams have solid defenses against tight ends.
The Cleveland Browns do not have such a solid defense against tight ends. They’re actually quite vulnerable to the position, as they’re allowing tight ends to catch an average of six passes per game against them. That’s enough for Waller to clear this line, and he’s a great pick for Sunday’s slate.
Best Mid-Priority Prop Plays
Kareem Hunt (CLE): UNDER 90.5 Rushing Yards (S)
I like Hunt a lot this week, so this play is somewhat counterintuitive. But Hunt is yet to clear 91 rushing yards this season — in fact, his season-high is 86 yards, and that came when Nick Chubb was still healthy!
Hunt gets too much usage in the passing game to clear this line. If it counted receiving yards, then he’d be a shoo-in to clear it, but it doesn’t.
My other concern here has to do with Las Vegas’ defense. While they’re bad against running backs, they’re not bad at limiting rushing yards. They’re giving up just 97.3 rushing yards per game to the position, and that doesn’t give Hunt much breathing room. They’re much worse at limiting running backs through the air, as they’re allowing a league-high 63.3 receiving yards to the position.
Hunt will see plenty of usage on Sunday, but most of it should come through the air, and he won’t clear his season-high in rushing yards against the Raiders.
Aaron Rodgers (GB): UNDER 0.5 Interceptions
Rodgers has looked fantastic this season. He has a completion percentage of 65.9%, and he’s thrown just two picks so far — and both came in the same game! That means this under has hit five times already.
This line was one of my recommended plays back in Week 1, and that was the last time Rodgers took on the Vikings. This week, Minnesota won’t have three of their best cornerbacks: Holton Hill, Cameron Dantzler, and Mike Hughes, and I doubt the Vikings will pick him off here. He’s thrown just two picks against them since 2016.
Best Low-Priority Prop Plays
Le’Veon Bell (KC): OVER 44.5 Rushing Yards
Two words: revenge game. Le’Veon Bell will be playing angry against his former head coach, and he’ll want to show off all the gas he has left in the tank. Yes, I’m aware that he didn’t get many snaps last week, but the Chiefs weren’t going to start him off with a full load.
The Jets’ defense is surrendering an average of 105 rushing yards to the position this year. Bell should have no problem getting just under half of those.
Mark Andrews (BAL): UNDER 4.5 Receptions
I’m a Ravens fan, but I’m going to wrap up this column with a pair of Ravens unders. Mark Andrews just doesn’t get enough volume to clear this line — he’s averaging just 3.3 catches per game, and he’s cleared this line just twice. Andrews caught five passes against Cleveland and six against Cincinnati, both of which field defenses that give up tons of catches per game to the position (6 and 5.7 per game, respectively).
Here’s where the Pittsburgh Steelers come in. They give up just 3.83 catches per game to tight ends, and I don’t expect Andrews to have an above-average day against an above-average opponent.
Lamar Jackson (BAL): UNDER 61.5 Rushing Yards
I’ll fade Jackson’s rushing yards, too. Jackson has beaten this total only twice this season — once against the Eagles, and once against the Chiefs. He’s averaging 57.7 rushing yards per game, which is close to this line, but it’s not good enough for me. His median rushing yards per game is a touch lower at 53.5.
Again, here’s where the Steelers come in. They have allowed a total of 53 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks so far, which comes out to an average of 8.83 per game. They haven’t just played against pocket passes, either — they allowed Deshaun Watson to run for just five yards. Like I said about Andrews, I don’t expect Jackson to have an above-average day against an above-average opponent.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.
