Week 8 is here, and we’re about to be halfway through the season. I hope that your DFS ventures have been profitable, but if they haven’t, you’ve still got some time to right the ship.
If you want to fire up some studs in your DFS lineups, you’ll have to find cheaper options somewhere who can return value. By “value,” I mean a player who offers some upside but won’t bust for zero points. To hit value, a player should get between three to four times their salary in fantasy points. I’ll look at quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers under $6K, and at tight ends under $4.5K.
Check back next week for another slate of picks — and for my results from last week!
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Last Week’s Picks
Quarterback
Joe Burrow (CIN): 38.6 points (7.01x)
Running Back
Justin Jackson (LAC): 10.5 points (2.14x)
Kenyan Drake (ARI): 5.1 points (1.06x)
Wide Receivers
Demarcus Robinson (KC): 1.4 points (0.41x)
Mike Williams (LAC): 1.4 points (0.29x)
Tight Ends
Darren Fells (HOU): 0 points (0x)
Uh, yikes. After an excellent Week 6 (you can check the recap here), I did not have a good Week 7. Well, aside from Burrow — that 38.6-point performance could have won you some money. And while Jackson wasn’t a complete bust, Drake, Robinson, Williams, and Fells all were. That said, the process wasn’t super flawed with those picks. I still think Drake was a great value at that price point, I was surprised by the sudden decline in Robinson’s target share, and Fells had just scored 20.5 points a week before in the same situation. Oh well. I promise that I’ll do better this week!
This Week’s Value Plays
Quarterback
Derek Carr (LV): $5,500 at CLE
I’m a big fan of Derek Carr. I noted back in Week 5 that he had changed his game up and was attempting more long-range passes, and that observation held true through the next two weeks. PlayerProfiler classifies approximately 10% of his throws as “deep ball attempts,” and the Browns’ defense gives up the seventh-most DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to opposing quarterbacks. In a game that the Raiders are expected to play from behind (the Browns are 2.5-point favorites), I expect Carr to cash in on a deep attempt or two, which makes him a strong value play this week.
Honorable mention: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): $5,400 at SEA.
Running Back
Darrell Henderson (LAR): $5,900 at MIA
Henderson is somewhat expensive for a “value” play, but I’m comfortable plugging him into my lineups at this price point. Sean McVay has favored him over both Malcolm Brown and Cam Akers, and even though Henderson hasn’t hit value in the past two weeks, he was also up against two defenses that rank in the top-12 against running backs. The Dolphins field the eighth-worst defense against opposing rushers, and they give up 27.2 DKPPG to the position. Miami’s defensive vulnerabilities, combined with the fact that the Rams are four-point favorites, make Henderson a smart pick in Week 8.
Le’Veon Bell (KC): $4,600 vs. NYJ
I like to make most of my picks based on data. However, there comes a time when a narrative overwhelms numbers. This is a revenge game for Bell, and he’ll take on a head coach who misused him for a season and a half. That head coach won’t have key run-stopper Steve McLendon after the team traded him, and the Jets’ defense ranks seventh-worst against opposing rushers. They allow 28.1 DK points per game to the position. The Chiefs eased Bell into the offense last week, but he should be in for an expanded role this weekend against New York.
Honorable mention: Myles Gaskin (MIA): $5,200 vs. LAR.
Wide Receiver
Brandon Aiyuk (SF): $5,800 at SEA
This pick is an easy one for me. The Seahawks rank 32nd against opposing wide receivers, and it’s not close. They give up 64.3 DKPPG to the position; the next-worst Browns give up just 50 DKPPG. The 14.3-point gap between the Seahawks and the Browns is larger than the one between the Browns and the 12th-best Patriots. Seattle is a fantastic team to target with wideouts, and Aiyuk should pop off against them. This game has one of the highest projected point totals on the slate (54), so it’s a great one to target with offensive stacks.
Kendrick Bourne (SF): $3,500 at SEA
What’s this, another 49er? Yup. With Deebo Samuel unlikely to play, I’m a huge fan of Bourne at this price. Before Samuel’s return in Week 4, Bourne was averaging 5.3 targets, 3.3 catches, and 54.7 yards per game, and he had a median DKPPG showing of 10.5. To hit value, Bourne just has to score 10.5 points, which is exactly his median split! I would confidently feature Bourne as a lower-end option to help you roster some studs.
Honorable mention: Nelson Agholor (LV): $4,700 at CLE.
Tight End
Jonnu Smith (TEN): $4,100 at CIN
It’s always slim pickings on the tight end market. This week’s play, Jonnu Smith, hasn’t eclipsed 2.3 DKP in two games. That said, he makes a great upside pick for a triad of reasons. First, well, he’s still averaging 12.4 DKPPG due to some monster early-season performances, and his median (12.4) syncs up with his average. Second, the Cincinnati Bengals give up the fourth-most DKPPG to tight ends (18.7). And third, Smith leads this team in targets inside the 20 (26.9% team share) and inside the 10 (35.7%). With the rest of Tennessee’s receiving options healthy, Smith is a touchdown-dependent play, but he’s a smart option at this price point nonetheless.
Honorable mention: If Tyler Higbee can’t play, consider Gerald Everett (LAR): $3,700 at MIA.
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Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.
