DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 11
This week’s DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice piece takes on a slightly different look. There’s no favorite stud featured below. There’s also no favorite value play, either. Instead, I offer a value stack with a receiver pivot and my favorite stack including an add-on/pivot option.
Boyd leads the Bengals in targets (76), receptions (60), and receiving yards (625), while rookie Higgins, who’s included above as the pivot, ranks third on the team in targets (61), second in receptions (40) and receiving yards (603), and first in touchdown grabs (four). Both are strong plays, and picking between the two is splitting hairs. Because Higgins is coming off of a 7-115-1 effort and Boyd totaled just a 6-41-0 line last week — and the former has posted more yardage in recent weeks compared to the veteran latter, I suspect Boyd will be on a slightly lower percentage of rosters than Higgins. That perception gives Boyd the edge as my preferred receiver from the Bengals in this stack.
On the other side, Thomas set a new single-game high for receiving yards last week with 66, as Alex Smith got the start for an injured Kyle Allen. Thomas was targeted six times and caught four passes. He had a good showing, but he’ll have a chance for more in a juicy matchup due to his large role in Washington’s offense.
Regarding the matchup, Cincinnati has coughed up the second-most DraftKings points per game to the tight end position, according to Pro-Football-Reference. As for Thomas’ usage, he’s an active route runner who routinely lines up in the slot. According to PlayerProfiler, he ranks first among tight ends in slot snaps and ranks third in route participation percentage (92.9%). Even if you’re less bullish than I am on this stack, Thomas is my favorite price-considered option at the tight end position, and he’s a fantastic punt.
New England’s elite defense from 2019 is a distant memory now, and the Patriots have been vulnerable to big plays in the passing game. In fact, they’re tied for the highest average explosive pass rate percentage (12%) allowed, per Sharp Football Stats. The speedy duo of Cooks and Fuller are just built for big plays. Cooks has an average depth of target of 10.1 yards downfield while Fuller bests him at an average depth of target of 11.8 yards, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Watson is also a stellar trigger man to take advantage of New England’s struggles with allowing big plays in the passing attack. His average throw depth of 7.9 yards downfield is tied for 11th-deepest among quarterbacks who have thrown at least 100 passes this year, again, per Sports Info Solutions. Using the trio as a full three-man Texans stack is a high-upside move, but, if you want just one of the two receivers, Cooks has the edge for me.
He got off to a slow start with his new team, but Cooks has been targeted eight or more times in five-straight games, has caught six or more passes in four of those contests, reached at least 60 receiving yards in four of those games, and scored a touchdown in three contests. He also is tied for the fourth-highest target share from Week 5 through Week 10 at 28.0%, as the following graphic in the tweet from TJ Hernandez shows.
Target share leaders over the last six weeks pic.twitter.com/mzDGe9MEow
– TJ Hernandez (@TJHernandez) November 18, 2020
Ranking higher than Cooks during that six-week stretch is Jakobi Meyers, the touted option from the opposition, The second-year wideout has a gaudy 31.6% target share during that time frame.
He’s been the apple of Cam Newton’s eye of late, and he’s in the midst of a nifty four-game run. His least exciting showing during that stretch was a 4-60-0 line with one rush for two yards back in Week 7. Since then, he has a 6-58-0 line with a two-point conversion in Week 8, a blowup 12-169-0 line in Week 9, and a 5-59-0 line on seven targets in last week’s rainy conditions while bolstering his scoring total with a 24-yard touchdown pass.
The Texans are notoriously bad against the run, and they rank dead last in Rush Defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), per Football Outsiders. Their struggles to defend the run should generate some buzz and rostership for bruising runner Damien Harris ($5,700), but his lack of passing-down work and goal-line work make him a fade for me. Rex Burkhead ($4,600) is somewhat appealing given his scoring-territory work and blend of occasional runs and pass-catching chances. However, there is a different way to exploit Houston’s struggles defending the run.
Pivoting from Watson to Newton to stack with Meyers and one or both of Houston’s speedy receivers is a viable move. Newton is essentially the team’s goal-line back and has rushed for nine touchdowns this year while averaging 41.9 rushing yards per game. Additionally, Newton could also benefit from Houston’s suspect pass defense. Sure, their basement-dwelling run defense gets most of the attention, but ranking 22nd in Pass Defense DVOA is no great shakes, either. Finally, all parties involved have nothing to worry about regarding the weather since this game is in Houston, and NRG Stadium has a retractable roof.
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