DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 16 (2020 Fantasy Football)
Tracking dramatic shifts in pricing trends from FanDuel DFS gives us a glimpse of players on the rise or fading away. These extreme shifts mean the market is moving in ways that naturally create more room for error in the price point. It’s our job to find out if there’s an edge to be had and exploit it or if it is indeed fair value. Below are some of the players that have moved the most from last week in pricing and my take on them as a possible play or fade this week.
Jalen Hurts (PHI) at DAL $8,200 (+$1,300)
Hurts exploded onto the scene last week against the Cardinals and now gets a very soft, cushiony matchup against the Cowboys defense. His rushing floor makes him a very good play every week and the price jump is definitely warranted as every touchdown seems to flow through him. If you like elite fantasy producers, Hurts is launching himself directly into that category.
Lamar Jackson (BAL) vs NYG $8,800 (+$600)
Jackson has been hitting his MVP caliber stride again lately, scoring 30 or more in back to back weeks. However, they will now face a Giants defense allowing the fifth-fewest points to the position. Stud linebacker Blake Martinez has been all over the field and should pair well against the Ravens’ option-style offense. Their defensive line has also been outstanding, and missing Bradberry last week was felt in their passing defense. This has the feeling of being an overpriced option this week considering the recent bump. There are other elite options out there for a similar price with better matchups.
David Johnson (HOU) vs CIN $6,700 (+$800)
After being activated, Johnson was put to use early and often against the Colts last week, and very notably as a receiving weapon. There is little reason to doubt otherwise again this week as their other receiving options have become very thin outside of Brandin Cooks, so his role should remain steadfast. Keep an eye on the return of Duke Johnson however as he could vulture some of the passing down work. Either way, he feels like a bargain at cost as the Texans are nine-point favorites.
Nyheim Hines (IND) at PIT $5,600 (-$600)
Despite a perfect matchup on paper last week, Hines left fantasy owners extremely disappointed. Jonathan Taylor has secured almost all of the passing down work and continues to look electric with the ball in his hands. Hines’ value usually comes on passing down work, and with Taylor controlling touches and the Steelers defense allowing the fewest receiving yards to running backs on the year, he is a strong fade for me.
DK Metcalf (SEA) vs LAR $7,700 (-$500)
No team allows fewer points to wide receivers than the Rams, and you can bet your bottom dollar that Jalen Ramsey will be shadowing Metcalf for the majority of the game. Shutting down receivers all year long, this is not the matchup you want to try and exploit. Couple this with the recent struggles of the Seahawks offense and we have an unappealing combination for his outlook, even with the discount.
Brandin Cooks (HOU) vs CIN $7,000 (+$400)
There feels like a week where Cooks should explode being the alpha dog in Houston, but it hasn’t quite come yet. With decent yet not outstanding performances, it’d be nice to see some bigger games and god-willing a touchdown every now and then. Until then, Cooks will just lock in 8-12 points per game until otherwise noted. Again, always feels like he has some upside untapped potential each game though.
Logan Thomas (WAS) $6,000 vs CAR (+$400)
Noted as a great value last week in this same column, Thomas went bonkers with 15 targets and over 100 yards receiving. He should very well have top-3 pricing after that week and his massive target share. For multiple weeks in a row, I still believe Thomas is an underrated play yet again.
Thanks for reading and stay golden! If you like what you learned, follow me @DavidZach16 for more interesting stats and tidbits throughout the year.
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