Week 17 always provides some unique challenges due to varying degrees of motivation for clubs. With that in mind, two stud running backs who are on AFC South squads duking it out for the division title will appear below. They’re joined by a sophomore tight end who’s playing well and a three-man stack running it back against one of the aforementioned AFC South running backs.
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Favorite Stud
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND): $7,400 vs. Jaguars
Both the Colts and Titans are 10-5 entering the final week of the regular season. There’s plenty of motivation for the Colts to play to win against a Jaguars squad that’s locked into the top spot in next year’s NFL Draft. The motivation and talent disparity between the two teams is reflected in a whopping 14-point spread favoring the Colts, according to the consensus line at BettingPros.
The sizable spread — if things go according to plan — should lead to a favorable game script for the emerging rookie runner, Taylor, in a plus matchup. In his last five games, Taylor is sporting per-game averages of 17.8 carries, 97.6 rushing yards, 3.0 targets, 2.6 receptions, 19.0 receiving yards, and 1.2 touchdowns. He should have little trouble piling up yardage against a Jaguars defense that’s ceded the third-most rushing yards (1,761), the fourth-most rushing touchdowns (15), and the seventh-most receiving yards (656) to running backs this season, per Pro-Football-Reference. Salary considered, Taylor is my favorite running back on this week’s slate.
Favorite Value Play
Noah Fant (TE – DEN): $4,400 vs. Raiders
One can quibble over whether Fant is truly a value play as the ninth-most expensive tight end to roster this week, but given the fact that he should be priced as a top-five option but isn’t helps him get the nod here. Further, with George Kittle still priced down from his standard salary at $6,000, I suspect San Francisco’s stud is going to garner the bulk of the attention among the top tight end options.
Circling back to Fant, he’s been in good form over the last two weeks, totaling 20 targets, 14 receptions, 133 receiving yards, and one touchdown grab. Taking a look under the hood beyond his impressive box score numbers reveals dreamy usage, too. Player Profiler credits Fant with 37 routes run in Week 15 and 36 routes run in Week 16.
Favorite Stack
Derrick Henry (RB – TEN): $9,400 at Texans
Deshaun Watson (QB – HOU): $7,700 vs. Titans
Brandin Cooks (WR – HOU): $6,900 vs. Titans
Chad Hansen (WR – HOU): $4,100 vs. Titans
When the Titans hosted the Texans back in Week 6, Tennessee won in a 42-36 shootout. Both defenses are abysmal, and both offenses have the firepower to hang points as they did in their prior matchup. In that contest, Henry made the most of facing Houston’s porous run defense and hammered them for 212 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries, adding a pair of receptions for 52 yards.
Houston’s run defense remains a total joke. They’ve coughed up the most rushing yards to running backs this year (2,082), getting thumped for 5.41 yards per carry. They’ve also been a mess defending backs in the passing game, as they allow the second-most receiving yards to them (722). Henry isn’t often a part of the passing attack, but his work through the air earlier against the Texans illustrates the potential for him to add to his ceiling this week. The case is simple for using him, and he’ll be chalky this week. That said, he’s good chalk, and I won’t be fading him.
Last week, I was burned for touting and using Hansen. Despite the poor showing, Hansen was on the field a ton and ran 33 routes on Watson’s 33 pass attempts. You don’t need me to do the math, but that’s a 100% route participation number. I’ll gladly go back to the well with him against a Titans defense that’s tied for the third-most DraftKings points allowed to wideouts.
Cooks is the more obvious stacking partner with Watson after he erupted for a 7-141-1 line on 10 targets last week. He’s the top dog in the passing attack with Will Fuller suspended, and point chasers are likely to inflate his ownership rate this week. Like Henry, though, Cooks is good chalk.
As for Watson, he’s enjoying a career year and is averaging 297.2 passing yards per game. He’s spun it for 30 passing touchdowns, completed a new single-season high 70.1% of his passes, and still adds to his fantasy-scoring output with his legs by averaging 28.8 rushing yards per game with three rushing touchdowns to boot. He torched the Titans earlier this season for 335 passing yards and four scores while tacking on four rushes for 26 yards. Fuller had a hand in Watson’s big game with a 6-123-1 line, but I like Watson’s chances of ending the season on a high personal note with another big showing as a spoiler against his division rival.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
