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DraftKings DFS NBA Advice: Sunday (2/14)

by Isaiah Sirois | @is_sirois | Featured Writer
Feb 14, 2021

Happy Valentine’s Day! The NBA has gifted us with a fantastic Valentine’s matchup tonight, as we’ll see the second game between the Lakers and Nuggets this month. Denver will look to bounce back from the double-digit loss they suffered a week and a half ago, and if you’re looking to get some skin in the game, check out my recommended picks for the full slate at DraftKings.

Each week, I’ll be here to profile some strong value plays, studs, and duds for Sunday’s DraftKings slate. I’ll do my best to point you in the right direction, and if you have any questions, you can hit me up on Twitter at @is_sirois. All matchup data is pulled from our defense versus position tool.

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Most Value Per Dollar 

Below is a list of the top-10 players of the day expected to generate the most value relative to their salary. These are ranked in order.

We’re blessed with a handful of high-scoring games on tonight’s nine-game slate. The highest total belongs to POR/DAL (236), but after them, MEM/SAC (229.5), MIN/TOR (229.5), SAS/CHA (228.5), MIL/OKC (228.5) are all close behind. That will give us the luxury of targeting the best defensive matchups within those high-scoring battles.

I limit my value per dollar selections to players under $7,000, and I’ll try to emphasize players below $5,500 to help you find bargain-bin value so you can fit in some studs.

Harrison Barnes (SAC) $6,700
Barnes will be worth every penny if Marvin Bagley doesn’t play. That’s because the Grizzlies allow the most DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to small forwards and the fifth-most DKPPG to power forwards. If this game lives up to its posted total, expect Barnes to do a lot of the damage.

Keldon Johnson (SAS) $5,600
Another solid player in what should be a high-scoring game, Johnson will take on a Hornets defense that struggles against opposing small forwards. They allow the 10th-most DKPPG to the position.

Dillon Brooks (MEM) $5,400
The Kings give up the most DKPPG to shooting guards, so expect Dillon Brooks to have a big night shooting. His recent string of mediocre performances has dropped his salary from the $6,000 range to the mid-$5,000s, so take advantage of this price while you can.

Tim Hardaway Jr. (DAL) $4,600
Hardaway is another discounted bounce-back candidate. Once priced in the mid-$5,000s, he’s fallen to the mid-$4,000s after an abysmal game against the Pelicans. I expect him to recover in tonight’s offensive-heavy battle with the Trail Blazers.

Bobby Portis (MIL) $4,600
I have no idea how the Oklahoma City Thunder have remained so competitive despite their banged-up roster, but that should come to an end tonight. Look for Portis to pick up some extra minutes in what should be a blowout win for the Bucks.

Dennis Schroder (LAL) $5,900
Schroder finished with the second-most points when the Lakers last played the Nuggets, and he’ll look to repeat that performance against them tonight.

Derrick White (SAS) $5,100
White can post 25-plus DK points on any given slate, and I like his chances of doing so against a Hornets team that hasn’t been great against guards.

Rudy Gay (SAS) $4,700
I promise that this is the last Spur I’ll feature. Gay will take on the defense that allows the most DKPPG to power forwards tonight, and he should be a reliable performer off San Antonio’s bench at this price point.

Cameron Johnson (PHO) $4,400
Johnson is one of Phoenix’s fresher players after yesterday’s game against the Sixers. He played just 24 minutes to Jae Crowder’s 33, Chris Paul’s 33, and Devin Booker’s 34, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get some extra run against a depleted Orlando squad.

Nemanja Bjelica (SAC) $3,600
Bjelica exploded for 35.3 DK points against the Magic on Friday, a game that Marvin Bagley missed, so I expect big things out of him if Bagley misses tonight’s matchup. It helps that the Grizzlies allow the fifth-most DKPPG to power forwards, too.

Studs Worth Their Salary

  1. Luka Doncic (DAL) $11,100: You have to take the league’s best point guard against the league’s worst defense against point guards. Don’t overthink this.
  2. Kawhi Leonard (LAC) $9,700: Leonard has been incredible with Paul George off the court. He has hit 5x value against this price in three of the four games that George has missed.
  3. Damian Lillard (POR) $9,600: Lillard will have to carry this offense in what should be a high-scoring game. Dallas doesn’t give up a ton of DK points to opposing point guards, but Lillard is a cheat code.
  4. Ja Morant (MEM) $7,600: Morant could easily double-double in points and assists tonight. I expect to see lots of offensive fireworks in this one due to the high total and intriguing positional matchups.
  5. Gordon Hayward (CHA) $7,500: The Spurs give up the third-most DKPPG to small forwards, so Hayward should be a viable play tonight. Just double-check that he’ll play through his questionable tag before tip-off tonight.

Notable Players to Fade

  1. Anthony Davis (LAL) $9,300: Davis only scored 13 points against the Nuggets earlier this month, and he is too much of a risk at this price.
  2. Andre Drummond (CLE) $7,700: Drummond hasn’t scored more than 20 DK points in his last two games. I don’t expect him to rebound against the Clippers, as they allow the third-fewest DKPPG to opposing centers.
  3. Chris Paul (PHO) $7,700: Paul got a lot of run last night, and the Suns may scale back his minutes in a game that the spread suggests they should win easily.
  4. Buddy Hield (SAC) $7,000: The Grizzlies allow the fewest DKPPG to shooting guards, and Sacramento should do most of its damage in the paint.
  5. Michael Porter Jr. (DEN) $5,900: MPJ scored only eight points against the Lakers earlier this month. Like Davis, that matchup makes him too risky to use tonight.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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