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Analyzing CBS’s ADP for Undervalued Players (Fantasy Baseball 2021)

Mar 7, 2021

 
Continuing with our site-specific over-ranked/under-ranked series, today we’ll be focusing on players who are being drafted LATER than they should in CBS leagues. We will compare the player’s CBS ADP to our ECR (expert consensus rating) and our ADP (determined by averaging the six most popular fantasy baseball sites) and highlight those undervalued players.

I like to focus on the earlier rounds for this topic specifically because as it gets later in the draft, everyone has their own opinions. In earlier rounds, however, if you can find a player twenty spots or more after their cumulative ADP, then you’ve started your draft off nicely with some great value.

Here are five players ranked inside of FantasyPros top 125 ADP, who are currently being drafted much later in CBS roto leagues than they should be. For whatever reason, these players are falling specific to the CBS website, and it’s something to be taken advantage of by the savvy owner. Grab these players somewhere after our rankings (maximizing their value), but before (sometimes long before) CBS’s ADP.

Be sure to also check out my article, Analyzing CBS’s ADP for Overvalued Players.

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Trevor Bauer (SP – LAD)
CBS: ADP 26
FantasyPros: ADP 14, ECR 18
While many will argue that Bauer has been unreliable and difficult to project over his career, there’s no denying what he did for the Reds last season and into the playoffs. His Cy Young award-winning campaign comprised an incredible 1.73 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 12.3 K/9, and two complete-game shutouts.

Joining the Dodgers will not only supply him with plenty of run support but with all the training and advanced scouting tools he desires, as well. With his ability to go deep into games, 18 wins aren’t out of the question, as is 250 Ks. If he lives up to the expectations, he’ll be a steal going late in the second round, and that is exactly where you should target him, not at 26th overall.

Max Scherzer (SP – WAS)
CBS: ADP 40
FantasyPros: ADP 24 ECR 26
While I have Max a little lower than my colleagues at 30th, 40th is still extremely late. CBS roto leagues seem to have a running trend this year, allowing starting pitching to fall while hoarding hitters early. It’s a common strategy, but to see aces like Bauer and Scherzer fall 10 to 15 picks later is really surprising.

I have to admit Scherzer hasn’t quite looked like himself over the past couple of seasons. While he has battled some nagging injuries, the velocity and break on his pitches have stayed consistent, allowing him to retain his heavy strikeout ratios. He has shown the propensity to give up the long ball in recent seasons, and while his pinpoint control may not be what it use to be, Scherzer still offers plenty of value going in the third round.

His fastball/changeup combo didn’t have the same effect last year as in previous seasons. While his changeup allowed hitters to produce a .328 BA, his fastball gave up 7 of the 10 home runs he allowed. If he can adjust his changeup back to what it used to be (a really effective pitch against left-handed hitters), then it should help him return to his dominant ways. He’s said to be tweaking it in the off-season, which is a good sign.

There isn’t a competitor out there quite like Max Scherzer, and if he’s on the mound, you want him in your starting roster. Draft him in the early third round.

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Jose Abreu (1B – CWS)
CBS: ADP 57
FantasyPros: ADP 37, ECR 30
The argument against Abreu is that while he’s a consistent hitter, his MVP season last year was simply due to a one-month hot streak, leading to extremely high numbers. The naysayers are also quick to point out that he’s entering his age 34 season.

First of all, 34 for a first baseman is hardly an issue, plus he will DH on occasion. Plenty of guys in the past have continued to crush well into their mid-thirties. Just one glance at 40-year-old Nelson Cruz will tell you all you need to know about aging sluggers. My biggest praise for Abreu other than his impressive batted-ball profile is something that is not even in his control, his surrounding cast.

Pitchers simply can’t pitch around Abreu because Eloy Jimenez bats behind him, who is equally as good. And the players batting in front of him, including leadoff hitter and 2019 (2020 runner-up) batting champion, Tim Anderson, are consistently getting on base leading to a massive amount of RBI chances. Over the last 219 games (the last two seasons combined), Abreu has produced 183 RBI and 53 home runs. A .300 average is not out of the question, and he’ll score a decent amount of runs as well. Throw in the fact that he’s only missed three games out of the last two seasons, and you’ve got yourself a mainstay that you can rely on to help lead your fantasy roster.

Don’t wait until the 6th round to get him. He’s worth at least a pick in the 4th, if not earlier. The twenty-pick discrepancy allows you to wait a little longer on Abreu in CBS leagues, but don’t wait too long, or else some other lucky owner will be bragging about it all season long.

Paul Goldschmidt (1B – STL)
CBS: ADP 95
FantasyPros: ADP 80, ECR 73
Most sites have Goldschmidt undervalued, and CBS is no different. With the lack of protection in the lineup, Goldy’s power and RBI output took a heavy dip last season. Remedied now by the addition of Nolan Arenado (projected to bat fourth, directly behind him), Goldschmidt’s outlook is on the rise. Opposing teams pitched around him so often last year, and his OBP jumped from .346 in 2019 to .417. And it’s not as if he stopped hitting. He still punched his way to a .307 BA with a .466 SLG.

He’s only 33 years old, and while he might not steal like he used to, a 100/30/100/.290 season is not out of the question. He also rarely misses a game and hasn’t been on the IL (DL) since 2014. Draft Goldschmidt no later than the 8th round.

Nelson Cruz (DH – MIN)
CBS: ADP 111
FantsyPros: ADP 86, ECR 59
What more do fantasy players need to see from the perennial slugging DH? Yes, he doesn’t qualify at any positions, but that’s no reason to let him fall past the first 100 picks. And of course, the age factor is in the back of everyone’s mind, but just 6 months ago, he crushed 14 home runs and once again produced an outlandish stat line of .303/.397/.595.

He may receive the occasional off day, but by not having to field a position, the Twins can keep him healthy and in the lineup for most of the season. Expect more of the same from the Minnesota slugger who says he plans on playing next year as well. Target him in the 8th round and reap the rewards.

Honorable Mentions:

Teoscar Hernandez (LF/CF/RF – TOR)
CBS: ADP 106
FantasyPros: ADP 77, ECR 86

Mike Yastrzemski (LF/CF/RF – SF)
CBS: ADP 147
FantasyPros: ADP 117, ECR 115

(I just couldn’t leave out these two guys as well. They are vastly underrated and are two players that I am targeting in all leagues.)

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Austin Lowell is a featured writer at FantasyPros.

Draft Prep, Featured, Featured Link, MLB, Rankings, Strategy, Undervalued