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Analyzing CBS’s ADP for Overvalued Players (2021 Fantasy Baseball)

Mar 4, 2021

A few standout players are overvalued or undervalued every year, specific to their site’s ADP (average draft position). For example, while you may be able to get a player like Sonny Gray in the 9th round of ESPN leagues based on their ADP, you’ll have to spend a 7th round pick to obtain him in Yahoo leagues, following their ADP (in 10 team leagues). When comparing him to his FantasyPros consensus ADP of 68, he’s going right where he should be in Yahoo leagues but is undervalued in ESPN leagues. He has fallen in ESPN for whatever reason. After considering where he’s averaging on other sites, the savvy owner playing on ESPN would be wise to move him up about 10 spots from 89th to 79th overall. This allows you to still obtain him at a bargain price (later than 68) while not missing out on the value.

It works the other way as well, of course, where a player on your site is going much earlier than compared to other sites, making him overvalued. It’s a great tool to use as it helps to not overpay for players, maximizing the value of every selection you make without falling for a single site’s trends.

For now, let’s get into the over-ranked players in CBS leagues. An old favorite for many fantasy enthusiasts, we’ll compare the players CBS ADP to our ECR (expert consensus rating) and our ADP (determined by averaging the six most popular fantasy baseball sites), highlighting players going too early in CBS drafts.

I’m going to be focusing on the earlier rounds because as it gets later, everyone has their own opinions, so I tend not to put much stock into an average draft slot past 150. In earlier rounds, however, if you can find a player twenty spots or more after their ECR and/or their cumulative ADP, then you’ve started your draft off nicely with some great value.

Here are five players ranked inside FantasyPros top 125 ADP, who are currently being drafted much earlier in CBS roto leagues than they should be. They aren’t bad players, they’re just strongly overvalued on the site. Avoid these guys at their current ADP and let the other owners overpay for their services or wait until they drop to their proper slot and grab them then.

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Alex Bregman (3B/SS – HOU)
FantasyPros: ADP 36, ECR 28
Bregman has always been a steady contributor in roto leagues since his rookie season. However, his MVP-type production was called into question after the ‘Stros cheating scandal broke, leaving many fantasy owners scratching their heads as to what to expect from the aftermath. Outside of the organization, no one really knows how often or when sign-stealing took place, but we can focus on the numbers.

Most of the Astros batting stats fell dramatically last year. While it’s reasonable to believe the overall production fell without the aid of knowing what pitch was coming, it could also be chalked up to just a couple of slow-hitting months. The offense as a whole was down around the league, and Houston may have been no different. The absence of any kind of real spring training where hitters generally start to get their timing down was likely a major contributing factor, as was the hamstring injury Bregman had to deal with. There were exceptions to the dip in output for Astros (Kyle Tucker and George Springer had great seasons), but it’s still something to consider when using such a high draft pick to select their slugging third baseman.

Over 42 games last year, the 2-time All-Star slashed a .242/.350/.451 stat line, with 22 runs batted in and 6 homers. A far cry from Bregman’s previous seasons, but again it was only over two months.

Bregman could easily bounce back, especially considering his pedigree (even before he made it to the pros) and knowing that he was injured. Taking him at 17 though is not only banking on a repeat of his best season but could also potentially put you in a major hole to start the draft. In my mind, he’s far from a sure thing, and you’d be much better served to draft someone like Bryce Harper, Francisco Lindor, or even Walker Buehler. My colleagues tend to agree as he’s rated 28th in ECR and other sites have him going even later, averaging 36th overall. He’ll provide much better value in the third round, as opposed to the early second, and if you can grab him at the end of the third and possibly even in the early fourth, you’ll be set up nicely for the rest of the draft.

Chris Paddack (SP – SDP)
FantasyPros: ADP 103, ECR 114
Paddack is currently going before Max Fried, Nick Castellanos, and even Charlie Blackmon in CBS leagues. That is wild. While Paddack broke into the league with massive success (1.55 ERA and 46 Ks over 40.2 IP), hitters quickly made adjustments realizing he only had two effective pitches, which unfortunately in 2020 was narrowed down to one. Paddack’s changeup is still one of the best in the league, but without a strong compliment, hitters just sat on the fastball and hammered it. Last season Paddack’s fastball resulted in a .308 BA with a whopping .658 SLG and 10 home runs. Paddack did throw a curveball 7% of the time and a cutter every so often, but they too were crushed or taken for balls.

With only one plus offering, it is tough to prolong success over multiple innings, having to face hitters more than once. He is said to be working on his fastball in the off-season, but even if he performs better, he still doesn’t deserve to be going before the players mentioned earlier. Paddack should be left outside of the top 100 for now and if you still have high hopes, grab him at the end of round 9, but not earlier.

Carlos Correa (SS – HOU)
FantasyPros: ADP 123, ECR 108
Like Bregman, Correa’s stats were down across the board last season, with his power numbers taking the biggest hit. While in 2019, Correa hit 21 home runs and 16 doubles over 280 ABs, last season, he was only able to muster up 5 home runs and 9 doubles over 201 ABs. He also walked a lot less and produced a career-low .709 OPS, worse than league average. And to top it all off, he didn’t steal a single base and barely averaged over a run and RBI per every ten at-bats. What makes these unsightly numbers stand out even further is that the regression could actually have been worse. Based on his .324 BABIP, which was much higher than it had been the previous two seasons, and by the sizable amount of ground balls he hit (50% GB rate), Correa might have gotten a bit lucky last season.

Obviously, he could bounce back like any player who had a down year (2 months), but Correa’s always been a bit overrated regardless. He’s a wiz on defense, but he’s never put together a season with 25 or more home runs or reached 100 RBI and has only hit over .300 in one season during his six-year career (which came in 2017, the one year they admitted to cheating). He also comes with heavy injury risk, not having played in over 110 games in a single season since 2016, further damaging his value. Plus, like Bregman, there’s the unknown cheating factor that possibly helped inflate many of those previous seasons.

At the very peak, Correa could make it back into the top 80 overall, but that is betting on him reaching his ultimate ceiling, which is never a good idea. He’s more valuable after the 10th round, and I personally wouldn’t grab him until a round or two later.

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Patrick Corbin (SP – WSH)
FantasyPros: ADP 127, ECR 126
Patrick Corbin was going in the fifth round last season in roto leagues, and for a good reason. Unfortunately, the disappointment that followed suit was bad enough to knock him down a full 7 rounds for this year’s draft, even if it was only over a two-month period. Simply by watching the games, Corbin did not pass the eye test. His breaking ball was nowhere near as effective as it had been in the past, and his fastball looked slow and hittable. The advanced metrics say the same, so the trepidation in spending an early draft pick on Corbin this season is definitely warranted.

His fastball and sinker combo barely averaged 90 mph, while his signature slider/slurve was below 80. He served up an ugly 85 hits over 65.2 innings and allowed 10 gopher balls. He still exhibited decent control, but his strikeout rate dropped over 8%, earning less than a K per inning.

He’s still a fine pitcher to draft in fantasy leagues based on upside, but not before the middle rounds. Keep an eye on him in spring training, and if his velo is back up to what it was in 2019 and prior, then go ahead and move him closer to 100th overall. For now, though, you can wait on Corbin and draft him in the 13th round, as there’s no need to reach for him in the 9th. There is just too much risk involved taking him sooner on the chance that he flops again and repeats his 2020 numbers.

Joey Gallo (OF – TEX)
CBS: ADP 110
FantasyPros: ADP 141, ECR 139
I actually believe Gallo will bounce back this season and have a relatively successful year, although 110th overall is quite the stretch. The Rangers don’t offer much in terms of a surrounding cast, and without any protection in the lineup, opposing teams will be quick to pitch around Gallo, further increasing his strikeout and walk numbers. At the same time, his BA and HR totals continue to plummet. And unless something dramatically changes between now and opening day, a batting average above .215 likely isn’t in the cards.

Gallo may be a fun player to watch with his occasional moon shots. Still, in terms of fantasy production, he’s only going to contribute heavily to one category (he’ll knock-in and score a few, but nothing off the charts) and isn’t worth a pick in the first 12 rounds. He could come close to his earlier numbers, still providing decent value, but at best, you’re probably looking at a repeat of 2018 and not 2019.

While his 2019 ratios were the finest of his career, he only played half a season that year, and many of those numbers were inflated by an improbable .365 BABIP. With the heavy shifting opposing teams do against him and the vast number of fly balls Gallo generates, a BABIP of anything over .300 just isn’t sustainable (his career average is .270). If you discounted his half-season in 2019, Gallo has never produced a batting average above .209, which not only makes sense but is likely to continue. He also had five players around him that season who put up a better than 108 OPS+ (three of which are gone), prohibiting teams from pitching around Gallo and allowing him to hit with runners on (limiting the shift and providing more RBI chances).

If you feel like rolling the dice, go ahead and draft Gallo around 125th, but he’ll provide much greater value in round 14. If you do choose to reach for him, make sure you compliment his low batting average with some solid contact hitters as you round out the rest of your roster.

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Austin Lowell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Austin, check out his archive.

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