How to handle running backs has become one of the most polarizing discussions in the fantasy football community. The Zero-RB strategy alone has proven to be a content factory for people on social media and other parts of the internet. Other strategies, like handcuffing your running backs, have been somewhat divisive as well.
This makes sense, of course, as many NFL teams have shifted to a more holistic approach for their backfields. Gone are the days when we can target nine or 10 running backs who shoulder the load for their respective teams and get 25-30 touches per game. We are in an era of backfield timeshares. These days if a running back sees 20+ touches, we view him as a workhorse.
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The running back position has also evolved in fantasy, forcing fantasy managers to change their approach. Each season the goal is to optimize your roster on draft day to maximize value and scoring potential. If we view the draft on a micro level, we can see where pockets of value open up in certain rounds. And that’s the nexus for strategies like Zero-RB and handcuffing.
To Handcuff… or not.
As we enter redraft season, it is a good time to look at how you should be protecting your investment at the running back position. Strong arguments can be made for handcuffing your stud running back, but realistically, your actual roster construction will ultimately drive that decision.
To wit: What if you don’t actually draft a stud running back?
Perhaps we first need to decipher what, exactly, we are looking for in a true RB1. Touch count and opportunity mean almost everything, but with a surge in shared backfields, there has been a trend away from three-down running backs. Now backfields feature not only early-down hammers but third-down receiving backs. The problem, for our purposes, is they often eat into one another’s workload.
I researched how things have changed for bellcow backs. Going back to the year 2000, there was a string of seven consecutive seasons where at least nine running backs amassed 300 or more carries. However, since 2012, no more than two backs have hit that plateau in the same season. For flowchart purposes, Derrick Henry and, possibly, Ezekiel Elliott would qualify as exceptions to the current backfield rules.
Of course, carries isn’t the only stat we care about. Running backs are being used in the passing game more than ever. This is what gives Christian McCaffery his overall RB1 status and makes Alvin Kamara a clear-cut RB1. It gives players like Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Antonio Gibson a chance to jump into that mix as well.
However, dual-threat backs can be harder to project for handcuff purposes since lesser talented backups don’t easily duplicate their skill sets. Take the situation in Minnesota, for instance. Dalvin Cook is a true three-down running back who racks up touches each week. When he went down, people rushed to grab his backup, Alexander Mattison. The problem is, Mattison isn’t nearly the receiving threat Cook is, so he was a major disappointment for owners.
As we have learned the hard way, not all handcuffs are created equal. This is why I say opportunity is almost everything when it comes to running backs. We can expect handcuffs to get opportunities, but we can’t count on good results. Sometimes we get duds in the form of Mattison’s 2020 Week 6 performance (10 carries, 26 yards, 0 Touchdowns) against Atlanta.
Other times, we get Mike Davis.
Luck is where waiver wire priority meets opportunity.
When McCaffery went down in Week 3 last season after amassing 75 touches in three games, it was unclear how the Panthers would replace his production. There was speculation that Curtis Samuel might get additional carries, but Davis ended up filling in McCaffery-lite. Though he had just 66 receptions in five NFL seasons and was rostered in less than 10% of leagues when McCaffery was hurt, Davis finished the season with 59 receptions and more than 1,000 combined yards. In PPR formats, Davis racked up six RB1 weeks.
Could we have seen this coming? Actually, maybe we could have.
This is an illustration of how opportunity is everything for the running back position. Davis was the only back on the Panthers’ roster capable of handling 15+ touches in a given week. Savvy managers who looked at how the Panthers utilized McCaffery prioritized Davis over other backs in shakier situations. (Sidebar: RIP to those McCaffery managers who did not draft Davis with their last pick and were not able to get him on the waiver wire.)
Because McCaffery had avoided major injury through his first three seasons and had over 95% of the backfield touches in Carolina, few managers bothered to sew up his handcuff on draft night. Davis was likely available in the final round of most 12-team drafts, but he was left on most waiver wires. Fantasy managers with depleted FAAB dollars or low on waiver priorities had little chance of getting him.
How you evaluate handcuff situations like Carolina can be the difference between success and relative disaster for your team. I understand the argument that handcuffs are wasted in leagues that limit roster spots. Still, I’m also guessing that most managers who drafted McCaffery if they had it to do over would have preferred Davis over their actual final draft pick.
Does handcuffing always make sense?
It does not.
As noted, a growing number of NFL teams have two running backs that have fantasy value. For those teams, a true handcuff may not exist. Draft capital considerations must be taken into account with these backfields as well.
Cleveland is a good example. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt both finished with over 200 touches last season. In this scenario, Hunt’s draft capital is far too high for him to be considered an actual handcuff. If you are taking Nick Chubb in the first round in a redraft league, using a sixth- or seventh-rounder on Hunt makes little sense from a roster optimization perspective.
Sometimes it is best to avoid a backfield altogether because of offensive line issues or general offensive ineptitude. Houston comes to mind here. There are also scenarios like the one in New England, where there is no true lead back.
The Final Word.
If you manage to snag a top-tier running back early in the draft, picking up his primary handcuff in the later rounds makes sense. Remember names like DeeJay Dallas, Boston Scott, and Joshua Kelley? All had RB1 weeks last year that largely resulted from volume. Opportunity is everything for running backs, so 15 touches in a given week can push a player to fantasy relevance.
Of course, there are also situations like the one in Minnesota last season. Mattison seemed like the safest of plays for Week 6. He’d rushed for 136 yards the previous week after Cook left with an injury. He was set to face Atlanta, one of the NFL’s worst run defenses. Instead, Mattison’s 26 yards cost ruined the week for many managers. But it was the right call. If you handcuffed Cook with Mattison, your process was sound. It’s just sometimes variance catches up with you.
Research is important for handcuffs, so do your homework and evaluate your targets before the draft. Sniping a handcuff from another team may work just as well. And with true RB1 running back depth being so dangerously thin, even some third- and fourth-tier backs will likely provide value as the season wears on.
Drafting a handcuff is the best option, because it’s the cheapest way to get one. It certainly beats scrambling to the waiver wire or blowing your FAAB budget trying to acquire a replacement because your lead back went down. It is better to have overprepared and overstaffed your fantasy backfield depth in the event of an injury.
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Jason Kamlowsky is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @JasonKamlowsky.
