Fantasy football drafts are happening at a torrid pace at this time of year as the regular season is finally in sight. Using the ADP (average draft position) of players is a common strategy for people who want to get a leg up on their competition. When looking at the ADP of players, you shouldn’t use it as an end-all or be-all for who you choose to select. Instead, it should be utilized as a tool where you can get a sense of where other people are valuing players, and it’s up to you to determine whether or not they are being overvalued/undervalued. Before you dive into more season-long drafts, there are a few running backs that I believe are being overvalued based on their current ADP.
ADPs are courtesy of FantasyPros’ ADP Consensus.
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Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG) ADP: 7th Overall, RB7
Grabbing a running back has long been a popular plan to deploy in the first round of drafts. Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR) is the consensus No. 1 overall pick in fantasy football drafts right now, followed by guys like Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN), Derrick Henry (RB – TEN), and Alvin Kamara (RB – NO). The one name that I continue to see selected in the first round of drafts that I can’t bring myself to hit the ‘draft’ button for is Saquon Barkley. Barkley is returning from a season-ending knee injury with the New York Giants, but there’s no guarantee that he is ready to start in Week 1. It was recently reported that Barkley still has no timetable for a return, and NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport shared that his debut could be pushed back until Week 3. There’s no doubt that the Giants want to be cautious with their prized running back, which makes him a risky selection in the first round.
Whenever I’m taking a running back in the first round, I’m looking for someone that has a chance to play every game and give me consistent production in each of those games. Devontae Booker (RB – NYG) and Corey Clement (RB – NYG) could be poised for expanded roles in the offense until Barkley can get back on the field. Seeing that Barkley’s at risk of being in street clothes to begin the 2021 season, he shouldn’t be taken in the first round. And even when he does return, he could have a snap-count limit, which would only limit his ceiling even further. Plus, who’s to say that Booker doesn’t carve out a role in the offense while Barkley works his way back? As much as it pains me to say as a fan of Barkley – tears are rolling down my face as I write this – he’s being overvalued this offseason. If his ADP has him sneak into the second round, then maybe there’s a discussion to be had on adding him to your roster.
Miles Sanders (RB – PHI) ADP: 35th Overall, RB19
To continue the theme of Penn State running backs, Miles Sanders is the next player to make the list. There are always players that seem to land in an awkward spot in ADP, and right now, one of those players for me is Sanders. While there are red flags for Sanders, there were positives from the former Nittany Lion in 2020. First and foremost, he logged a 77% snap share, which was the third-highest mark among running backs. He also recorded a 62.9% route participation on Philadelphia’s aerial plays, giving him the fourth-highest mark in that metric. Now, for the negatives, Sanders wasn’t particularly good at catching the ball when he was targeted. Over the course of 12 games in 2020, Sanders registered a putrid 53.8% catch rate (worst among all RBs).
Some would venture to say that the presence of Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI) expands the ceiling of Sanders due to the success he saw with Hurts last season. In Weeks 14-17 (when Hurts was the starter for the Eagles), Sanders accrued the ninth-most (17.8) fantasy points per week in half-PPR formats. It can be dangerous – and I sometimes get caught up in the moment doing it – using a small sample size as a basis for liking a player or not. The fact of the matter is that a run-first quarterback like Hurts can put a damper on Sanders’ value in fantasy football. You tack on the fact that Boston Scott (RB – PHI), Kerryon Johnson (RB – PHI), and rookie Kenneth Gainwell (RB – PHI) could earn playing time, and I rest my case on why Sanders is a running back that isn’t valued correctly.
Mike Davis (RB – ATL) ADP: 56th Overall, RB24
We are all seeking running backs that carry the ‘workhorse’ moniker with them. McCaffrey is going to have a heavy workload with the Carolina Panthers, Cook will dominate touches with the Minnesota Vikings, and Henry is slated to be a focal point of the Tennessee Titans’ offense for another season. Some running backs are just guaranteed to garner an extensive number of touches, giving them a floor to work with in terms of fantasy football context. But there are also cases like Mike Davis of the Atlanta Falcons, where people are crossing their fingers to see him receive the vast majority of the touches in Atlanta’s backfield. The one question I ask of everyone that is taking Davis without batting an eye is: When have we ever seen a 28-year-old running back suddenly handle a full workload for a team?
Davis was a remarkable waiver-wire addition for people in 2020 as he filled in for McCaffrey when he was sidelined for the Panthers. The veteran running back would make 12 starts for Carolina a season ago, accumulating 903 yards from scrimmage and eight total touchdowns in those starts. Make no mistake about it, he made the most of his opportunities, hauling in 84.3% of his targets, putting him on the opposite end of the spectrum as Sanders. Also, from Weeks 3-16 (where he started in 12 games), Davis was RB7 in half-PPR scoring. Following his breakout season, Davis is now projected to be the starter for the Falcons. While he currently doesn’t have much threatening competition that could impede his role, Qadree Ollison (RB – ATL) and rookie Javian Hawkins (RB – ATL) could see more work in the offense than a lot of people expect. Not to mention, Atlanta could be among the teams that sign someone else when roster cuts are made in the coming weeks. I would be cautious in banking on Davis to be a serviceable back in fantasy football every week in 2021.
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Skyler Carlin is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Skyler, check out his archive and follow him @skyler_carlin.
