Greetings, friends, and welcome to Week 5 of the DFS Pricing Exploitation series. Every week in this space, we’ll take a look at pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel and identify our favorite quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends based on how we can best take advantage of recent changes to those prices. We once again have some injuries to discuss, and one of those injuries could present a unique opportunity to start a mobile quarterback in one of the better offenses in the league. Let’s take a look at some pricing changes and who we’re targeting in Week 5.
Have questions or just want to talk football or DFS? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
Create Optimal lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool 
Quarterbacks
Greetings, friends, and welcome to Week 5 of the DFS Pricing Exploitation series. Every week in this space, we’ll take a look at pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel and identify our favorite quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends based on how we can best take advantage of recent changes to those prices. We once again have some injuries to discuss, and one of those injuries could present a unique opportunity to start a mobile quarterback in one of the better offenses in the league. Let’s take a look at some pricing changes and who we’re targeting in Week 5.
Have questions or just want to talk football or DFS? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
Create Optimal lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
Quarterbacks
FanDuel
Derek Carr (LV - QB) vs. CHI, $7,100 (-$300)
Through his first three games, Derek Carr threw for 435 yards, 382 yards, and 386 yards, respectively, with two touchdown passes in each of those three games. He finished as a QB1 in all of them. In Week 4 in a tough matchup against the Chargers, he took a step back, throwing for just 196 yards but still tossing two touchdown passes. But he gets the Bears in Week 5, and the Bears are not the Chargers. The Chicago offense, regardless of who starts at quarterback, is likely to put the Las Vegas offense in some favorable positions, and I expect Carr to capitalize and bounce back with another QB1 performance. At $7,100, he is QB12 in terms of price on FanDuel this week.
Other notables: Kirk Cousins (MIN - QB) vs. DET, $7,500 ($0)
DraftKings
Trey Lance (SF - QB) vs. ARI, $5,700 (+$1,000)
This one, of course, depends on whether or not Trey Lance starts for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo. That sounds 50-50 right now based on initial reports. At first, it sounded like Garoppolo could end up missing multiple weeks. Now, head coach Kyle Shanahan says he thinks the veteran quarterback has a chance to play. Maybe that is gamesmanship, or maybe it's the truth. If Lance gets the start, he's a huge value, even against a defense like the Cardinals. He'll offer a high floor because of his rushing ability and a high ceiling because of the San Francisco offense as a whole. Monitor Garoppolo's status throughout the rest of the week. But if Lance starts, I'll have him in a ton of DFS lineups, especially in GPP contests.
Other notables: Matthew Stafford (LAR - QB) vs. SEA, $6,500 (-$500)
Running Backs
FanDuel
Damien Williams (CHI - RB) vs. LV, $5,800 (+$1,200)
With David Montgomery out for the next month or so, all eyes are on Damien Williams. His price is up $1,200 on FanDuel this week, but he's still just $5,800 since he is somewhat of an unknown. That price puts him at RB28 on FanDuel for Week 5, but he is projected as a solid RB2. He had a solid game in Week 4 despite Montgomery playing most of the game and not leaving until late, and Williams should be in for a significant workload this week. According to our projections, he is +11 when comparing projections to price point (which is fantastic).
Other notables: D'Andre Swift (DET - RB) vs. MIN, $6,900 (-$800)
DraftKings
Nick Chubb (CLE - RB) vs. LAC, $6,700 (-$300)
Nick Chubb rushed 21 times for 100 yards and caught his only target for five yards in Week 4, but his price is down $300 in Week 5. Sure, he has finished outside of the Top 25 running backs the last two weeks, but we all know Chubb's ceiling and his guaranteed share of the touches in Cleveland. He projects to be a clear RB1, but his price has dropped enough the point where he is a discount and a value and is someone I'll be using in Cash and GPP lineups in Week 5.
Other notables: Chuba Hubbard (CAR - RB) vs. PHI, $6,000 (+$100)
Wide Receivers
FanDuel
CeeDee Lamb (DAL - WR) vs. NYG, $6,900 (-$500)
The game scripts have not favored CeeDee Lamb in recent weeks. After receiving 24 targets through the team's first two games, he has received just eight over the last two games. But the Cowboys blew out the Eagles in Week 3 and only threw the ball 22 times in a win over the Panthers in Week 4. Dallas is likely to win somewhat easily again in Week 5, but the Giants aren't likely to let them run all over them the way the Eagles did. Lamb should be more involved, and his discounted price presents a great buying opportunity.
Other notables: Calvin Ridley (ATL - WR) vs. NYJ, $7,200 ($0)
DraftKings
Keenan Allen (LAC - WR) vs. CLE, $6,500 (-$200)
I could have talked about Lamb again here on the DraftKings side of things, but I'll focus on Keenan Allen instead. Allen only has 86 yards receiving over his last two games combined, but he has been targeted 23 times while hauling in 15 receptions in those games. And he topped 100 yards receiving in his first two games of the season. All in all, he has 28 receptions on 44 targets for 294 yards and one touchdown through four games. He is a big part of this offense, and big numbers are going to follow. At $6,500, he is only a slight discount on DraftKings this week, but he is priced as a fringe WR1 despite the high floor and clear upside.
Other notables: CeeDee Lamb (DAL - WR) vs. NYG, $6,200 (-$500)
Tight Ends
FanDuel
Tyler Conklin (MIN - TE) vs. DET, $5,100 (-$200)
In Week 4, Tyler Conkly caught four of his six targets for 18 yards against the Browns. But he finished as the TE2 in Week 3 against the Seahawks and has a much more favorable matchup in Week 5 against the Lions. At just $5,100, he is TE17 in terms of price on FanDuel but projects to be a mid-range TE1. The volume and target share should be there, and this price decrease doesn't correspond with his positive matchup this week.
Other notables: T.J. Hockenson (DET - TE) vs. MIN, $6,400 (-$200)
DraftKings
Kyle Pitts (ATL - TE) vs. NYJ, $4,700 (-$300)
As long as DFS sites continue to discount Kyle Pitts and lower his price, I will continue to chase the targets and put him in my DFS lineups. Has he broken out yet? No, he hasn't. But he has 26 targets through four games and was targeted nine times last week against Washington. The opportunities are there, and the production is going to come at some point. And it could very well come in big waves. This week, against a bad Jets team, seems like a perfect time for the Atlanta offense to have some success.
Other notables: Cameron Brate (TB - TE) vs. MIA, $3,300 (+$300)
Want to keep the conversation going or just have a question? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.
