I have no evidence to back this up, but Week 4 feels like a pivotal week in the fantasy football season. If you started 0-3, a Week 4 win is your gateway to hope. If you drop to 0-4, the despair starts to set in. Similarly, if you started 1-2, the difference between 2-2 and 1-3 looks absolutely massive. A 2-1 start with a Week 4 win sends you to the top of the league. A loss makes you .500. Meh.
Each week is probably close to equally important, but Week 4 feels like a statement week. Below are some candidates that are a bit too high or too low based on the FantasyPros ECR using Half-PPR scoring.
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Quarterbacks
Overvalued
Kyler Murray (QB – ARI): QB3
As electric and amazing as Murray can be, he has shown a propensity to randomly disappear. This week seems like a good candidate for that. The Rams have only allowed two passing touchdowns in three games this season, plus Jalen Ramsey (CB – LAR) will likely be blanketing DeAndre Hopkins (WR – ARI). The Cardinals do have firepower all over the field, but this feels like a pump-the-brakes game for Murray. His floor is high enough that he will likely still be a QB1, but a top-three QB against a good Rams defense feels like a stretch.
Undervalued
Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN): QB12
Go ahead. Go get your Pepto Bismol. I’ll wait. Believe it or not, Cousins is actually the QB4 so far this season, and his lowest scoring output is 22 points. I’ve watched Cousins enough to know that this is not the norm, but this game should allow him to continue riding this high. The Vegas total for the game at this point is around 51.5, making it one of the higher totals of the week. The Browns and Vikings both have the capacity to flip a switch and score at will, and I like both of them to do just that this weekend. Cousins is clicking, so fire him up even if it makes you exceptionally nauseous.
Running Backs
Overvalued
D’Andre Swift (RB – DET): RB9
These two things are true: Swift is the RB3 in PPR leagues, and he hasn’t surpassed 50 yards rushing yet this season. Swift has benefitted – statistically at least – from the Lions being bad and generally playing from behind, as he has averaged over six receptions per game through three weeks. The Lions face the Bears this week in what could very well be the dullest game of the slate, as the Bears, to put it nicely, look atrocious. The Lions being competitive seems like it will actually hurt Swift, so I’m a bit skeptical on him returning top-nine running back value.
Undervalued
Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG): RB13
For the first few weeks, Devontae Booker (RB – NYG) was the presumed handcuff and “break glass in case of emergency” back for Saquon in the event there was an injury setback. In Week 3, Booker was inactive, and Saquon looked more like himself, racking up 22 touches – up from 11 in Week 1 and 15 in Week 2. The way I see it, the Saints pull away and the Giants have to throw, which Saquon will be a part of, or the Saints end up being fake good and the Giants stay close, and the only way they can manage the game is by running. Either way, Saquon will be involved.
Wide Receivers
Overvalued
D.J. Moore (WR – CAR): WR7
Moore is great. There’s no debating that. With Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR) expected to miss a few weeks, however, Moore is far and away the focal point of the offense. Yes, that probably means more targets, but he will also be the guy that defenses try to take away first. The Cowboys have faced a bunch of solid offenses to start the season, but they held the Eagles wide receiving corps to some pretty limited involvement this week. I’m not exactly sure what the identity of the Cowboys’ defense is, but I think expectations for Moore have gotten a little too ambitious.
Undervalued
Calvin Ridley (WR – ATL): WR9
Ridley has had a bit of a slow start to 2021, as he has not surpassed 63 receiving yards yet despite seeing an average of just under ten targets per game. He faces Washington this week, who, surprisingly enough, has been absolutely dreadful against opposing wide receivers, allowing an average of 247 yards per game to opposing wideouts. Atlanta has a few weapons, but Ridley is still the focal point of the offense and should start providing returns as the top five receiver you drafted him to be.
Tight Ends
Undervalued
Dawson Knox (TE – BUF): TE15
Hi, yes, hello. I’m talking to the tight end streamers among you out there. Tight Ends are always tough to figure out, but it feels like this year has been a bit tougher than usual. Probably partly due to the general sadness at the position, Dawson Knox is currently the TE8. He faces the Texans this week who have allowed at least 15 points per week to opposing tight ends. It isn’t pretty, but it has a bit more upside than some of the options you’ve tried to convince yourself to like this week.
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Donald Gibson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Donald, check out his archive and follow him @DonaldGibsonFF.