Week 12 Thursday Night Showdown DFS Primer (Bills at Saints)

The Bills and Saints are coming off losses in Week 11, leaving both teams fighting for their playoff lives. The Saints have the benefit of hosting the Bills on a short week. However, they’re ravaged by injuries. Thus, the Bills are a touchdown favorite on the road. Nevertheless, a few weeks ago, they were beaten on the road by the Jaguars as commanding favorites. So, Buffalo is capable of blowing a favorable situation. Now, let’s take a look at the most fantasy-relevant players from both teams on this single-game, Thanksgiving slate.

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Game: Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints

Spread: BUF -6.0 Points

Over/Under: 45.5 Points

Bills Analysis: The 2021 season is a series of extreme ups and downs for Josh Allen. He's failing to deliver consistency after his breakout in 2020. Nonetheless, he has passed for the eighth-most yards per game (281.1) and tied for the fifth-most passing touchdowns (21). The fourth-year pro orchestrates a pass-first offense. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Bills pass at the highest rate (68%) in neutral situations (an offensive scoring margin ranging from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points). Also, Allen is adding value with his legs, rushing for 34.0 yards per game and three touchdowns this year. Even when he's not successful from a real-life perspective, he is often a fantasy asset. He's the highest projected scorer on the slate and my top pick for the Captain and MVP spots on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively.

There are multiple stacking options with Allen, evidenced by Stefon Diggs, Dawson Knox, Emmanuel Sanders, and Cole Beasley in the table above. However, the player in the quartet I'm pitching most easily is Beasley. Buffalo's slot wideout is dealing with a ribs injury, limiting him to only 36 routes the last two weeks combined, per Pro Football Focus. There is a bull case for using him, though, since his practice activity is off to a better start this week than in recent weeks.

My favorite option in Buffalo's pass-catching corps is Diggs. According to Sports Info Solutions, he is tied for 14th in target share (24.7%) and tied for third in Intended Air Yards (1,144). As a result of his top-shelf usage, he is leading the Bills in receptions per game (6.0), receiving yards per game (77.3), and touchdown receptions (six).

Meanwhile, Sanders is appealing as a home-run threat, and Knox is viable as a red-zone favorite. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Saints allow the 10th-highest average explosive pass rate (10%). Meanwhile, Sanders has the deepest average depth of target (16.5 yards) among players targeted at least 40 times in 2021. As for Knox, according to our red zone stats, he has been targeted nine times inside the 20-yard line and 15-yard line, six times inside the 10-yard line, and once inside the five-yard line, resulting in three touchdowns in the red zone. In addition, Knox has scored five touchdowns overall in eight games this season.

Buffalo's running game is a tire fire, and Zack Moss is the least efficient back of the bunch. The Bills didn't do much correctly last week, but they wisely cut back Moss's playing time and usage. He's an easy fade against the NFL's top rush defense. According to Football Outsiders, the Saints are first in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Devin Singletary is Buffalo's most used running back in the passing game, leading the backfield in receptions per game (2.5) and routes (192). So, perhaps the Bills will lean on him in the passing attack as a faux rushing attack instead of running into the teeth of a stout run defense.

Finally, I'm intrigued by Matt Breida's explosiveness. He brings more juice to the table than Singletary and Moss, evidenced by averaging 6.9 yards per rush attempt and ripping off a 28-yard run among his dozen carries. He's also secured four of five targets for 38 yards and a touchdown. Sometimes, an assumption of rationale coaching (a phrase I first heard coined by pundit Sigmund Bloom) can lead to unfortunate results. Nevertheless, Breida offers food for thought regarding increased playing time and touches with Moss and Singletary struggling to move the needle.

Saints Analysis: The Saints are in a tough spot on a short week. Unfortunately, they are enduring practice absences from Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram II in the backfield and integral offensive linemen.

Kamara has missed back-to-back games with a knee injury. I anticipate him being out again this week. However, Ingram's situation is tough to get a gauge on. He was a limited participant on Monday before not participating on Tuesday. The step backward may be a sign of a setback. However, he might have been held back for precautionary purposes, as he's a 31-year-old veteran that has touched the ball 40 times in the previous two games. As his workhorse touch total in the last two games suggests, he's a great option on this slate if he is active, accumulating 135 rushing yards and a touchdown, 10 receptions, and 86 receiving yards.

Gamers can use Trevor Siemian on this single-game slate. However, he's a below-average quarterback with limited weapons, a banged-up offensive line, and a challenging matchup. To that last point, the Bills are first in pass defense DVOA. As a result, I'm fading Siemian.

However, I'm somewhat interested in dual-threat backup Taysom Hill. Further, while there isn't any scuttlebutt about an impending quarterback change, there are opposing theories dancing in my head. First, a short week might make it difficult to prep Hill for a start. Second, on the flip side, it might be difficult for the Bills to adjust to a surprise start from rushing-threat Hill at quarterback. In addition, if Kamara and Ingram are out, an unconventional attack spearheaded by Hill might be New Orleans' best bet for stealing a win. Regardless, Hill can help fantasy teams, even in his current Swiss Army Knife role. Hill has run 52 routes in seven games, reeling in four receptions for 52 yards, completing seven of eight pass attempts for 56 yards and an interception, and rushing the ball 20 times for 104 yards and three touchdowns.

Revisiting the running backs, if Kamara and Ingram are out, Tony Jones Jr. and Ty Montgomery will likely be chalky. I'll fade Jones. However, Montgomery's receiving ability makes him attractive.

As for the legitimate pass-catchers, Tre'Quan Smith is the top option. In New Orleans' previous four games, Smith has run the most routes (142). Further, he has been third in targets (21) and receptions (15), second in touchdown receptions (two), and first in receiving yards (194).

Marquez Callaway has been second in routes (132). Unfortunately, he's living on touchdowns (three) as an inefficient option otherwise. Thus, I'm not chasing his touchdown-dependent production. Instead, I like Deonte Harris better. He has fun the fourth-most routes (78) for the Saints from Week 8 through Week 11. However, when he's been on the field, he's been targeted, ranking second with 23.

Finally, Adam Trautman is injured. During the four-game stretch, he was Siemian's favorite passing-game option, targeting him a team-high 26 times. Therefore, Juwan Johnson and Nick Vannett are sneaky darts as the next-men up at the tight end position.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.