The Giants are double-digit underdogs on the road against the Chiefs. This is a get-right spot for the Chiefs. However, their struggling defense should allow some of Big Blue’s healthy offensive players — more on that to come — to produce fantasy-relevant lines.
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Game: New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: KC -10.5 Points
Over/Under: 52.0 Points
Giants Analysis: The Giants are full of health questions entering the Monday Night Football game, as evidenced by their jam-packed injury report. Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay are already ruled out. Still, Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney are listed as questionable. Both receivers were able to practice in a limited capacity this week, so they might be on the more likely to play side of the questionable ledger. If they play, they're excellent selections and enhance the outlook for Daniel Jones.
The Giants are double-digit underdogs on the road against the Chiefs. This is a get-right spot for the Chiefs. However, their struggling defense should allow some of Big Blue’s healthy offensive players — more on that to come — to produce fantasy-relevant lines.
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Game: New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: KC -10.5 Points
Over/Under: 52.0 Points
Giants Analysis: The Giants are full of health questions entering the Monday Night Football game, as evidenced by their jam-packed injury report. Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay are already ruled out. Still, Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney are listed as questionable. Both receivers were able to practice in a limited capacity this week, so they might be on the more likely to play side of the questionable ledger. If they play, they're excellent selections and enhance the outlook for Daniel Jones.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, in three games Shepard completed healthy this year, he's received at least nine targets. He's also produced more than 75 receiving yards in each of those games. The slot specialist is a favorite of Danny Dimes.
Meanwhile, Toney showcased his dynamism in Week 4 and Week 5 by hauling in 16 receptions on 22 targets for 267 yards, adding two rush attempts for eight yards. The first-round pick's explosiveness is a breath of fresh air in the offense, and he's demonstrated the ability to play in the slot and aligned wide, running 55 routes wide and 64 in the slot, per Pro Football Focus. Thus, I'm not worried about his playing time outlook with Shepard reprising his slot gig. While I love Toney on both daily fantasy providers, he's a steal on FanDuel.
If either Shepard or Toney is out, Darius Slayton is an intriguing option. However, if they both play, I'm fading Slayton. Last week, Slayton was targeted nine times due to the injuries to Big Blue's receivers, hauling in five receptions for 63 yards.
John Ross III is a viable punt play regardless of who suits up. In Week 8, Ross's 23 routes tied for the second-most on the team. He has elite speed, and, according to Sharp Football Stats, the Chiefs have allowed the sixth-highest average explosive pass rate (12%) this season. Also, Sharp Football Stats credits the Giants with running 11 plays using four receivers in 2021. Further, as double-digit underdogs, the Giants might be forced into a pass-heavy game script.
Devontae Booker is listed as an option in the table because he's an every-down back in Barkley's absence. According to our snap counts, he's played 88%, 72%, and 82% of the team's snaps the last three weeks. Regardless, I'm expecting the game to go according to the betting line, so I prefer to invest in the pass-catching options instead of Booker.
Finally, Jones is a true dual-threat quarterback. Excluding the Week 5 game he left concussed, Jones averages 271.5 passing yards and 36.67 rushing yards per game. Jones will have a chance to carve up Kansas City's dreadful defense on the ground and through the air, as Football Outsiders ranks them 31st in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and 31st in pass defense DVOA.
Chiefs Analysis: I'm investing heavily in Kansas City's Big Three. Patrick Mahomes ranks fifth in passing yards per game (299.0) and third in touchdown passes (18). He's also used his legs to rush for 31.3 yards per game and a score. Mahomes should find the matchup against the Giants to his liking, as they rank just 16th in pass defense DVOA.
Mahomes' top two passing game options are unquestionably Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. According to Sports Info Solutions, Hill ranks 12th in Intended Air Yards (730) and ninth in target share (26.3%). Hill's elite usage has resulted in the speedy wideout ranking tied for eighth in touchdown receptions (five), fifth in receiving yards per game (91.6), and tied for second in receptions per game (7.4).
Meanwhile, Kelce's responsible for a 23.4% target share and per-game averages of 6.4 receptions (tied for ninth) and 76.1 receiving yards (17th). Additionally, Kelce's scored four touchdowns. So, I'm prioritizing spending the requisite salary to roster Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce.
Therefore, I'll fade Darrel Williams. Yes, the game script should be optimal for his usage. Thus, he's a defensible option. However, the Chiefs don't take their foot off the gas. According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin is leading by seven points or more, Kansas City passes at the fourth-highest rate (58%). Therefore, he's the expensive option on the Chiefs I'm fading.
To afford Kansas City's Big Three and any of the top options from the Giants, you need to use a punt or two. Byron Pringle and Josh Gordon catch my eye. Mecole Hardman continues to squander his opportunities. Meanwhile, Pringle's coming off his most productive game of the year, hauling in five of six targets for 73 yards in last week's blowout loss. So, I'm willing to speculate on Pringle earning more chances due to his stellar play in Week 7 coupled with Hardman's continued mediocrity -- or worse.
Finally, Gordon's a highly-speculative selection that I'm only interested in on DraftKings. He's rarely been used since signing with the Chiefs, running only 16 routes in three games. However, the Chiefs have reportedly had plans for Gordon that have gone awry due to negative game scripts the previous two weeks. This week, the Chiefs project to have a positive game script. So, maybe they'll be able to deploy Gordon as they reportedly intended in the last two games. I don't suggest going overboard using him if you multi-enter contests. Still, he's a worthwhile consideration.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
