Week 9 Sunday Night Showdown DFS Primer (Titans at Rams)

This matchup was a lot more exciting before Derrick Henry required surgery for a foot injury. Still, it offers us an opportunity to make money in single-game contests. The Rams are a straightforward, consolidated offense. Meanwhile, there’s a ton of guesswork to do with the Titans. Thankfully, the uncertainty around what a post-King Henry offense looks like should lead to widely spread roster percentages for players on the Titans.

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Game: Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams

Spread: LAR -7.0 Points

Over/Under: 52.5 Points

Titans Analysis: I think it's best to throw out everything we know about this year's Titans. Unfortunately, Henry's injury leaves the team scrambling to replace a unicorn. According to Pro-Football-Reference, King Henry's 237 touches are the most in the NFL by a whopping 72. There isn't another running back on the Titans who has carried the ball double-digit times. Jeremy McNichols is the leading ball carrier among running backs on the Titans, toting the rock only seven times for 38 yards. Still, McNichols is the most accomplished pass-catching option, averaging 2.6 receptions and 25.4 receiving yards per game. He's my favorite back on the squad, given the most certain role as the presumptive pass-catching back on a 7.0-point underdog at the worst. At best, he soaks up a sizable portion of Henry's vacated carries. However, I'm not optimistic about that coming to fruition, and I'm not too fond of McNichols' salary on either daily fantasy provider. As a result, I'm fading him.

The other backs vying for touches are Adrian Peterson and D'Onta Foreman. Peterson was elevated from the practice squad first, followed by Foreman. The practice reports for Peterson are positive. I'm willing to consider him at DraftKings, given his modest salary. However, it warrants mentioning that veteran NFL analyst Greg Cosell revealed on The Fantasy Points podcast this week that a source told him Foreman would start, cautioning that could change. So, Foreman's a sneaky, potentially contrarian play at DraftKings.

A.J. Brown is on the injury report. However, the following clip leads me to believe he'll play. Further, the Titans shared a highlight package pumping him up on Saturday.

Assuming Brown plays, he's an excellent selection. Over the previous three weeks, he's produced 7-91-0, 8-133-1, and 10-155-1. Brown's dialed in, and his workload might rise if the team is forced to throw more without Henry.

Teammate Julio Jones isn't on the injury report. Unfortunately, he's failed to best 60 receiving yards in four of five games played. Again, though, the passing game might be forced to carry more of the load without Henry. So, Jones is a defensible if unexciting option.

Ryan Tannehill is the trigger man. The dual-threat quarterback adds value with his legs, averaging 20.6 rushing yards per game with three rushing scores. However, I'm a little worried about how he'll function as the focal point of opposing defenses. It's a challenging first test, as Football Outsiders ranks the Rams eighth in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Obviously, Tannehill's a legitimate option on a single-game slate. Further, if the Titans must throw more to move the ball or play catch-up as underdogs, that bolsters Tannehill's outlook. Still, I don't view him as a must-use player.

Frankly, my preference is to lean heavily on the Rams and sprinkle in speculative value options from the Titans around them. According to Pro Football Focus, in Week 6 and Week 7, when Brown, Jones, and Henry were healthy, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was fourth in routes (26) behind the stud trio. In those games, Anthony Firkser was fifth in routes (23), Marcus Johnson was sixth in routes (24), and Geoff Swaim was seventh in routes (20). Yet, last week, Johson was second routes (27), Swaim third (21), Chester Rogers fourth (20),  Firkser tied for fifth (15), and Westbrook-Ikhine tied for eighth (10). In other words, it's a jumbled mess. As a result, I'm fading the tight ends. Further, I prefer Johnson to Westbrook-Ikhine when considering the most recent data point.

Rams Analysis: The Rams are the polar opposite of the Titans, boasting a defined pecking order for playing time and usage. Matthew Stafford is humming along in Sean McVay's offense, ranking third in passing yards per game (309.6), second in touchdown passes (22), and first in Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (9.56). This week he's opposing a mid-pack pass defense, so I don't expect Stafford to stumble in this matchup. I'm firing him up with confidence.

Cooper Kupp has been the apple of Stafford's eye, ranking among the NFL's elite in seemingly every category. According to Sports Info Solutions, Kupp ranks ninth in Intended Air Yards (825) and second in yards after the catch (384) and target share (32.7%). In addition, among receivers targeted at least 25 times in 2021, according to Pro Football Focus, he ranks second in yards per route run (3.35 Y/RR). Finally, he ranks second in receptions per game (7.9) and receiving yards per game (115.5), and first in touchdown receptions (10). Therefore, locking him in against the defense surrendering the most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to wideouts is a no-brainer move on this slate.

The other player from the Rams I prioritize using is Darrell Henderson Jr. The Titans are 28th in rush defense DVOA. Meanwhile, Henderson is a workhorse back, in a tremendous run-blocking offense, and attached to a 7.0-point favorite. According to our snap count leaders, Henderson's 78% offensive snap share is the third-highest mark among running backs. Revisiting run blocking, Pro Football Focus grades them 11th in run blocking, and Football Outsiders ranks them fifth in Adjusted Line Yards. Henderson's parlayed his massive workload and excellent run blocking into 72.4 rushing yards per game and five touchdowns. Additionally, he's added 2.3 receptions and 20.1 receiving yards per game, and two receiving touchdowns to his ledger. Thus, I'm all over him on this single-game slate.

Finally, Robert Woods, Van Jefferson, and Tyler Higbee round out Stafford's passing-game options. Woods is undoubtedly the second option in the passing attack, ranking second on the team with 4.8 receptions and 57.3 receiving yards per game, four touchdown receptions, and routes (264). Nonetheless, I'm fading him to roster Stafford, Kupp, and Henderson.

Thankfully, Jefferson is a fantastic option. He sports per-game averages of 3.0 receptions and 49.0 receiving yards, splashing paydirt three times. Additionally, last week, his 31 routes tied for the team-high with Woods and Kupp. The team has parted ways with DeSean Jackson, paving the way to a steadier role for Jefferson. I'm enamored with Jefferson, and I don't see a gap in value.

Higbee's been rock-solid this year, averaging 3.8 receptions and 34.1 receiving yards per game with two touchdowns. Also, he ranks third on the team in routes (235). His usage is promising, making him a usable player. However, I prefer to spend a little more on Jefferson.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.