What is FIP, and why is it useful? I am glad you asked! FIP, otherwise known as Fielding Independent Pitching, is an ERA indicator. FIP focuses solely on the events a pitcher has the most control over, such as strikeouts, unintentional walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs. The idea behind FIP is that it removes defense from the equation by completely removing all batted balls into the field of play. When a pitcher has a high BABIP, the pitcher’s FIP will likely be lower than his ERA. Batted Balls in the field of play are not included in FIP because pitchers have little control over the outcome once the ball is in play. These tend to be pitchers that are in store for improved performance the following year.
So which pitchers had the highest positive ERA minus FIP in 2021, and what does it mean moving forward? Let’s take a look.
*Note that I’ve also run the flipside of this analysis for highest negative ERA minus FIP performances.
2021 ERA Minus FIP Leaders
Looking at his 2021 season numbers, former Boston Red Sox lefty Eduardo Rodriguez looks like he had a poor year. A 4.74 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP over 157.2 innings pitched is nothing to write home about. But, looking under the hood, Rodriguez posted some of the best numbers of his career. His 27.4 percent strikeout rate and seven percent walk rates were both career-best. Rodriguez's swinging strike rate and CSW percentage were both tied for career-best.
Rodriguez was a benefactor of some bad BABIP luck, positing a .363 BABIP compared to his career .299 before 2019. Boston's defense certainly played a role in this, as they posted the second-worst fielding percentage among all Major League teams and were well below average in defensive runs saved. Fenway Park also had the second-highest BABIP of any park in baseball over the last three years.
When all was said and done, Rodriguez finished with a 3.32 FIP, good for 19th best among all pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched. His low FIP suggests that Rodgriguez pitched much better than his 4.74 ERA. His .363 BABIP and a low 68.9 percent left-on-base percentage played a significant role in the high ERA.
Rodriguez now has a new home in Detroit, a much better pitchers park than Fenway. If Rodriguez keeps the strikeout rate above 25 percent, you can expect a nice rebound season in 2021.
Throughout the entire 2021 season, Aaron Nola felt like the poster child for having a high ERA minus FIP. Nola finished the year with a 3.37 FIP but a 4.63 ERA. It was the first time since 2016 that Nola posted an ERA over four. Like Eduardo Rodriguez, Nola posted a career-best strikeout (excluding the shortened 2020 season) and walk rate in 2021. Unfortunately, the Phillies ace was not much of an ace when looking at the bigger picture.
Surprisingly, Nola's BABIP was not high at just .308. Nola historically runs low BABIPs(.278 between 2018 and 2020), but even the slight increase to .308 is not insanely high. What does stand out was his low 66.8 percent left-on-base rate. In the three seasons prior, Nola had a 78.4 percent left-on-base percent. The 12 percent drop explains some of his problems.
Nola's other issue was his increased home run rate. Even though FIP includes home runs, Nola still managed to keep the FIP down at 3.37. Many seem entirely out on Nola, but seeing Nola's 3.23 ERA over 654 innings between 2017 and 2020 should give some hope. Nola has proven to be an ace before and is coming off a season where he improved his walk rate significantly and posted a near 30 percent strikeout rate. Nola's 3.37 FIP, xFIP, and xERA indicate that Nola underperformed substantially in 2021.
Surprisingly, Nola's ADP is 38, according to FantasyPros Consensus. I would have loved to see Nola fall near pick 50, but regardless I will have Aaron Nola on plenty of fantasy teams in 2022.
Nathan Eovaldi is the second Red Sox pitcher to pop up in the top-five of ERA minus FIP. Unlike Rodriguez and Nola, Eovaldi had an impressive 2021 season. He pitched 182.1 innings with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. The more impressive part is that Eovaldi posted a 2.79 FIP. He allowed the lowest home run rate of his career since 2015 while also posting solid strikeout and walk rates.
Eovaldi's BABIP was not as high as Eduardo Rodriguez's, but a .326 is still well above league average. As previously mentioned, Fenway Park also played no favors as it produces BABIPs just shy of Coor Field levels.
Eovaldi is an excellent example of a pitcher who checks all the boxes for FIP. Of pitchers with at least 120 innings last season, only Corbin Burnes, Trevor Rogers, Zack Wheeler, Carlos Rodon, and Logan Webb posted better FIPs. Despite pitching in Fenway Park as his home stadium again in 2022, Eovaldi should have an improved defense behind him. There is no reason to expect negative regression. If anything, we could see Eovaldi's ERA trend south of 3.75 in 2022.
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Chris Clegg is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Chris, check out his archive and follow him @RotoClegg.
