Every year, in every draft, in every sport, over-ranked and overpaid-for players are abundant. These overpays tend to vary from site to site, but once the ground is laid, their members follow suit. Their ADP only reflects their site and therefore fantasy managers believe a player is worth such a value.
Well, I’m here to say don’t do it! Overpays could ruin your season before it even begins!
There are more than a handful of players being overvalued on CBS Sports, but I’ll be sticking to those drafted within the first 100 picks. Those selected in the early rounds should always reward you with maximum value and very little doubt, and if you’re reaching that early on, it’s gonna cost you. Once the draft gets a bit deeper, more leeway can be given to those you truly believe in or those you just really want to take a gamble on. Plus, if they fail, there’s less at stake and they’re more easily replaceable. Also, once you get deeper into the draft, there is a vast array of opinions on players’ values and arguably no right answers.
In other words, if you were to reach for Anthony DeSclafani (SP – SF) at 168 when his average ADP is 198 and likely would have been available two or three rounds later, it won’t hurt your overall team much. But if you reach for someone like Carlos Correa (SS – FA) in the fourth round when his ADP is 30 picks later, that could be disastrous. The players you would miss out on because of the errant early pick are much more significant than the ones later.
Quit blabbing already and give us the list! Okay, okay! These five guys are all great players, and you’d be lucky to snag any one of them for your roster, but they’re going at least two rounds earlier than they should be. If they fall in your lap, thank your opponents, but if someone beats you to them, don’t feel bad, odds are they overpaid and it will cost them in the long run.
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CBS ADP: 31
Consensus ADP: 46
FantasyPros ECR: 52
I love Alonso this year, but not in the middle of the third round. Waiting until 52 or even 46 may be a little late judging by his trajectory and upgraded supporting cast, but taking the Mets’ first baseman before players like Salvador Perez (C – KC), Cedric Mullins (CF – BAL), and Tim Anderson (SS – CWS) is a definite reach.
Drafting Alonso at 31, you’re betting on his ceiling, which is attainable but never a good strategy. The Polar Bear offers no speed and won’t provide a boost for your batting average. He also only qualifies at first base, which isn’t incredibly deep, but there are more than a handful of great options. Alonso will likely reward you with a 40 home run, 100+ RBI season, but 100 runs may prove difficult, and with a .265 average, he’s just not worth the 31st overall pick.
Alonso could compete for the MVP this year, but as only a two or three category contributor, the Home Run Derby champion should be waited on until at least round four or five.
CBS ADP: 51
Consensus ADP: 57
FantasyPros ECR: 94
Outside of Salvador Perez, catchers are going far too early in drafts this year, and it isn’t just at CBS. Managers on ESPN and Yahoo are also following the ugly trend. But if you take a look at the expert consensus, Realmuto, along with just about every other rostered catcher, is being vastly overpaid for.
While Realmuto, Will Smith (C – LAD), and Yasmani Grandal (C – CWS) are studs at their positions, their output doesn’t match their current draft status. Especially when guys like Mitch Garver (C – MIN), Travis d’Arnaud (C – ATL), and Omar Narvaez (C – MIL) can be had 150 to 200 picks later. Are the 10-15 runs and RBIs and the handful of steals Realmuto may or may not get worth it? The answer is no.
While it may feel comfortable having one of the best catchers rostered atop your lineup, the price tag they are currently going for is a steep overpay. At 51, give me Nick Castellanos (RF – FA), Nolan Arenado (3B – STL), or Lance Lynn (SP – CWS) instead.
CBS ADP: 57
Consensus ADP: 76
FantasyPros ECR: 73
Marte is another one of my targets, but no way am I selecting him at 57. His best attribute will easily be his batting average, as he hits lasers all over the field, but can he provide more than 25 home runs and five stolen bases? And can he stay healthy for nearly a whole season (something he’s only accomplished once in seven years)?
Marte was one of the best hitters in 2019 but then regressed to only two homers in 45 games in 2020 with a .287 average, good for a 94 wRC+. And while he excelled last season, he only played 90 games due to injury and was on pace for just 25 homers, three steals, and 183 Runs+ RBIs.
Marte was a .260 hitter before his BABIP shot up nearly 60 points to .342 in 2019 (.329 BA), and then up to .352 in 2021 (.318 BA). His barrel rate did increase along with his hard-hit rate, but given his other batted ball metrics, it seems a .290 average is a more plausible outcome.
With the injury risk and his up-and-down career, it’s better to take a pass on Marte in round five and wait until round seven, where he is much more valuable.
CBS ADP: 77
Consensus ADP: 102
FantasyPros ECR: 115
The funny thing about this list is that I like every player highlighted on it and would be ecstatic to land any one of them. Fantasy sports is all about value, however, and a seventh-round selection for Witt Jr. is simply not worth it.
Dynasty leagues aside, there is no way a 21-year-old, who has never taken a Major League at-bat, should be drafted that high. His power/speed combo is tantalizing, but there’s no guarantee he even starts the season in the Big Leagues. And even if he does, how much can we expect?
Steamer has him pegged quite nicely at producing a 71/24/75/18/.267 season, but the overall Zeile Consensus Rankings puts him at a more modest 67/20/68/17/.264. Even with Steamer’s lofty projections, there has to be some hesitancy knowing he’ll be accompanied by a weak surrounding cast and an uncertainty of when he’ll get the call. 70 RBI and 70 runs scored with a .265 average is hardly the type of season that anyone should be spending their seventh pick on. Even with Witt Jr.’s upside, it would be much more prudent to take something closer to a sure thing that early.
A 30/30 season could easily be in store for the young Royals’ superstar, but that likely won’t happen until 2023 or later. Wait until the selections reach triple digits before drafting the uber-prospect.
CBS ADP: 87
Consensus ADP: 109
FantasyPros ECR: 128
Muncy provides a safe floor for all managers who select him, plus he qualifies at two of the more difficult positions to fill. The only problem is, it’s anyone’s guess when he’ll be ready to start the season. The first week of games was just canceled, but it’s extremely likely the Dodgers mashing first baseman will miss more time than that.
There are even reports circling that Muncy may need surgery to repair his elbow. If that is indeed the case, then who knows how long he’ll be out for. Questionable players to start the season, especially when possibly facing a lengthy absence, are best left out of the top 100. The elite are the exception but as good as Muncy is, he’s still just a three-category contributor.
He’s going over 20 picks later on other sites and is ranked over 40 slots lower (and dropping quickly) according to the top experts. Leave Muncy until at least the first 100 selections are off the board.
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Austin Lowell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Austin, check out his archive.
