(Expert Consensus Rantings is an ongoing series by correspondent Tim Metzler, wherein Tim freaks out about unjust Expert Consensus Rankings.)

Recency bias is the name of the game, folks, and nary a player is more despised for his recent woes than DeAndre Hopkins. Yes, he finished as the WR37 in half-point PPR for the 2021 season, but he spent much of the 2021 season dealing with injuries. Do you really think he’s the 15th best fantasy WR in the league? Really?! You think he’s going to be the 15th WR taken off the board this fall? That’s crazier than my uncle on a PBR bender. However, it’s apparently what the “experts” think. Let’s set the record straight on Hopkins before I lose my mind.

Can you draft the perfect 2021 team? Check out our Perfect Draft game now

QUICK HITS

– 2021 was Hopkins’ worst fantasy season ever. It was also the only year he’s ever played fewer than 15 games. He played 10 games in 2021.

– He had his highest TD percentage in 2021, scoring on 19% of his receptions. That’s incredible, and it likely indicates his value as a red zone option going forward. His next closest mark was in 2017, with a TD percentage of 13.5%, the same year he finished as the overall fantasy WR1.

– Since 2017, Hopkins has finished as the WR1, WR2, WR5, WR5, and this past year as the WR37. One of these things is not like the other.

– The two greatest target competitors on the Arizona roster are Christian Kirk and A.J. Green, both of whom are set to become unrestricted free agents. Since we’ve seen what Kirk and Green can do as the focal points of the offense (when Hopkins was out), it appears that the presence of these two makes little difference either way. Hopkins, at least for now, has no substantial threat to his WR1 status on the team.

– Continuing with the previous point: The Cardinals could have substantial cap space available to them if they cut linebacker Jordan Hicks and offensive tackle D.J. Humphries. Hicks is a redundant talent, with the Cardinals sporting potential young stars in Isaiah Simmons and Zaven Collins. Humphries was a solid lineman in 2020, but he regressed in 2021, giving up seven sacks and 42 pressures. He was the second-most-penalized tackle this season. Releasing both players would free up $21.5 million in cap space. All this is to say that the Cardinals may target WRs in the draft and free agency. It seems highly unlikely, however, that they’ll be able to bring in anyone who can deprive Hopkins of top-10 WR numbers.

– Hopkins is clearly Kyler Murray‘s favorite target and an essential part of the team’s success. The Cardinals were 8-2 with Hopkins in the lineup, even if he was playing injured. They were 3-4 (including the loss in the wild card round of the playoffs) without him.

– Hopkins is 29 years old but will turn 30 before the start of the 2022 fantasy season. He’s by no means beyond his prime, especially since his production has never been predicated on speed.

– 2021 represented a bad season for Hopkins. In the games he played, he never totaled more than 90 yards or seven receptions.

THE ARGUMENT

What are we doing, “experts”?!? Hopkins had a bad season – SO WHAT!? The man had an unreal TD rate and was still on pace to put up top-15 WR numbers, even with this ultimately being a down season for him. Yes, I understand that Kyler Murray is being dramatic this offseason by demanding a new contract. Yes, I know Hopkins is coming off an injury, but it’s been reported that he’s already recovered and will be more than ready for the start of the 2022 season.

Do you really mean to tell me that Jaylen Waddle, with Tua Tagovailoa throwing the ball, is going to outpace Hopkins? No. Diontae Johnson? Who’s the QB in Pittsburgh?! Stop. Oh, you think Tee Higgins is going to finish higher than Hopkins? You mean the WR2 on the Bengals is better than the WR1 on the Cardinals?! I don’t care how much you like Joe Burrow. This is ridiculous. Get out of here with that hogwash.

You heard me correctly. According to our beloved Expert Consensus Rankings, Hopkins is currently the WR15 in half-point PPR redraft leagues. Jaylen Waddle is the WR8, Diontae Johnson is the WR13, and Tee Higgins is the WR14. I get that it’s fun to be hyped about the young guys, but there’s no precedent for ranking Hopkins this low. He had a bad year. He was injured, but he’s had a top-5 finish in four of the last five seasons. Has Johnson or Higgins or Waddle done that? No. Johnson was the highest in 2021, finishing as the WR8. Waddle was the WR17, and Higgins was the WR18. I rest my case.

CONCLUSION

Hopkins may not be primed for his biggest season ever in 2022, but the Cardinals’ offense remains premier. As the top receiving option, Hopkins stands to receive as many targets as his heart desires. While his TD percentage may fall from 19%, he only needs to stay healthy and he’ll easily be a top-10 option in 2022, possibly even slipping into the top five again. Get out of here with the Hopkins hate.

Practice mock drafts with our FREE Dynasty Draft Simulator

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio