Figuring out how to handle the tight end position in fantasy football can be frustrating. It’s set it and pray for a TD outside of a few players, who you must draft at a premium. Guys come out of nowhere to have huge weeks because of this – such as Jack Doyle (TE – FA) in Week 12 last year or C.J. Uzomah (TE – NYJ) in Weeks 4 and 7 – complicating the waiver wire even further.
TDs are hard to predict from week to week, so I like to look for a couple of things while identifying TE sleepers. The first thing I look at is volume. If the player is getting targeted often and is a consistent part of the offense, he has a good chance to supply some points every week, even if he doesn’t score. The second is opportunity. Tight ends are typically big guys, so they see a lot of action in the red zone. So the better their team’s offense is, the more chances they’ll have to score even if they don’t see targets regularly.
With that in mind, I perused the early 2022 rankings to see which tight ends ranked outside of the Top 10 and could potentially break out next season. Here are a few that appear to have Top 5 potential should everything go right for them.
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Gesicki caught 73 passes last year on 112 targets. 18.4 percent of the Dolphins’ targets went his way. Only Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA) had more on the team. The volume was there last season, but the TDs were not. He only scored two, which is why he was only the 11th highest fantasy scoring TE in 2021.
Miami’s offense got a whole lot more interesting when they traded for Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA) recently and signed Chase Edmonds (RB – MIA) and Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA) a few weeks ago. If Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA) can take the next step, the Dolphins’ offense could be explosive with all these playmakers next year. So, what do Hill, Waddle, Edmonds, and Mostert lack? Size. They are all explosive playmakers, but the diminutive Hill and Waddle aren’t significant red-zone threats, and neither Edmonds nor Mostert are power backs.
Enter Gesicki, who is a big boy at 6’6″ tall. As drives stall near the goal-line, he could emerge into an excellent goal-line option. Even if his targets go down next year with the Dolphins’ additions, his value will skyrocket if he gets into the endzone six or seven times.
After a rough, injury-plagued 2020, Ertz showed signs of life early last season with the Eagles. Then, after Week 6, he was traded to the Cardinals. From that point on, Ertz was the fourth-best scoring Tight End in fantasy football, averaging 9.4 points per game (half-point PPR). He accomplished this despite only scoring three TDs over this stretch because he averaged 5.1 receptions off 7.4 targets for 52.2 yards.
Ertz inked a three-year extension with the Cardinals this offseason, so clearly, they like what they saw in him. He figures to be a big part of their passing attack next season, especially since the team has lost several pass catchers this offseason to free agency. Christian Kirk (WR – JAC) and Chase Edmonds are with new teams, and AJ Green (WR – FA) remains unsigned. So, there are targets to be had in Arizona, and Ertz could very well find himself back among the top fantasy Tight Ends in the league, as he was from 2016-2019.
Tonyan was the No. 3 fantasy TE in 2020, thanks to his 11 TDs on 52 receptions. He is unlikely to score a TD on 21 percent of his catches ever again, but he may see a significant spike in his target share next year. That’s because 38 percent of the team’s targets left with the trade of Davante Adams (WR – LV) to the Raiders and the free-agent departure of Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR – KC) to the Chiefs. Adams, in particular, won’t be easy to replace. The Packers will likely add more receivers between now and the start of the season, but draftees and low-end free agents won’t close the massive target gap left behind.
In addition to the likely target share increase, Tonyan could once again be busy near the end zone. Rogers proved in 2020 that he is comfortable throwing to him down there, and Adams leaves behind a 26 percent target share in the red zone. So while another 11 TDs may be slightly optimistic, eight to 10 may be achievable. Tonyan, of course, has to be healthy first. He is recovering from a torn ACL and may not be ready for the start of the season. If he makes it back in time and reports are good regarding his health, though, he could be a massive sleeper at the position.
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