Trey Lance Rookie Year Production
Career Contextualization
Trey Lance was the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft by the San Francisco 49ers. After a pre-draft trade with the Miami Dolphins, the 49ers were able to move up and secure the former North Dakota State star. However, the deal wasn't cheap. The Dolphins received the 12th overall pick in 2021, a 2022 first and third-round pick, and a 2023 first-round pick. If that doesn't prove the 49ers are all in with Lance, nothing will.
However, despite trading away all that draft capital for Lance, the 49ers kept Jimmy Garoppolo on the team last season. He was the starter when healthy, and the 49ers were just a win away from making the Super Bowl for the second time in three years with Garoppolo under center.
The plan was for Garoppolo to be the starter for the 2021 season while Lance learned from the bench. Then, the 49ers would trade Garoppolo to recoup some of the draft capital they gave up for Lance this offseason and make Lance the starter. However, between a wild trade market and offseason shoulder surgery, Garoppolo is still a 49er.
Current Situation
While Garoppolo likely gets traded at some point this offseason, Lance isn't the unquestioned starter for this upcoming season until that happens.
Last year, Lance sparingly played when Garoppolo was healthy. In the 13 games Garoppolo played from start to end, Lance only saw the field in three of them. He averaged only 3.6 fantasy points per game in those contests.
However, Lance started two games last season for an injured Garoppolo. He also played the entire second half of the Week 4 matchup against the Seattle Seahawks after Garoppolo suffered an injury right before halftime. In those 2.5 games, Lance averaged 18 fantasy points per game.
The most important number to take away from those 2.5 games is Lance's production on the ground. He averaged 10.3 rushing attempts for 53.7 rushing yards per game. Lance also threw four touchdowns and only two interceptions in those games while scoring over 19 fantasy points in two of the three contests, including the Week 4 matchup.
General Prediction for 2022 and Rest of Career
Once he officially takes over as the starting quarterback, Lance will have one of the best supporting casts in the NFL. On the sidelines, he has Kyle Shanahan. Lance also has an excellent offensive line led by Trent Williams. But, most importantly, he has three talented weapons: George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk.
That said, Samuel has requested a trade from the 49ers. So far, they have refused to trade him. Reportedly, the 49ers turned down an offer from the New York Jets that would have landed them the 10th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. I believe the two sides will work out their issues, and Samuel will sign a long-term contract with the 49ers. However, Lance has enough weapons around him to succeed next season, even if the 49ers trade away Samuel.
While Lance is still very much an unknown, the upside is tremendous. The 49ers are committed to Lance as their franchise quarterback after the draft capital they gave up to acquire him. Furthermore, the 49ers are a well-run franchise under the leadership of Shanahan and John Lynch. Not only will they find productive players in the draft and develop them, but they will also add the needed pieces to help Lance succeed, even if they trade Samuel.
Lance is one of the top dynasty quarterbacks under the age of 26 in the NFL. Furthermore, he was the youngest quarterback to start a game last season at only 21 years old. So lance has plenty of room to grow.
Now, he might not turn into a fantasy superstar in 2022. However, his future is incredibly bright given his rushing ability, situation, and natural talent. If Lance is on the trade block in your fantasy league, now is the time to make an offer. He would be the clear-cut 1.01 rookie pick this year if eligible.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
