Skip to main content

Dynasty Rookie Draft ADP: Value & Reach for Each Round (2022 Fantasy Football)

Dynasty Rookie Draft ADP: Value & Reach for Each Round (2022 Fantasy Football)

The 2022 NFL Draft is a few days old now, and it’s on to rookie drafts. While this year’s class isn’t full of elite prospects like last year’s class, there are still several appealing rookies in this class. At the same time, there are some rookies who fantasy players would be wise to avoid drafting at their current price.

Since we are early in the rookie draft period, I used FantasyPros rookie rankings instead of ADP. I broke the rankings into four blocks of 12 players to assimilate four rounds of a rookie draft. Which player is the best value and the biggest reach in each 12-player block? Let’s dive into it.

Andrew Erickson Mock Draft

First Round

Value – Kenneth Walker (RB – SEA): Overall Rank: 5th | RB2

Before the NFL Draft, there were three tier-one running backs: Breece Hall, Walker, and Isaiah Spiller. However, when Spiller slipped to the fourth round and landed with the Los Angeles Chargers, Walker became more valuable. There is arguably no other running back worth a first-round pick in rookie drafts other than Hall and Walker. Furthermore, Walker landed in a great situation with the Seahawks. Chris Carson‘s career might be over because of a neck injury, while Rashaad Penny is on a one-year contract. If Carson is released or retires, Walker is an injury to Penny away from a featured role as a rookie.

Reach – Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS): Overall Rank: 10th | WR8

Many NFL Draft experts believe the Commanders reached when they drafted Dotson. Fantasy players should avoid doing the same thing with the former Penn State wide receiver. Dotson will fill a critical role for Washington as their new No. 2 wide receiver opposite Terry McLaurin. However, there is plenty of uncertainty surrounding the Commanders. They’ve had a merry-go-round at the quarterback position since Kirk Cousins left in 2018. Carson Wentz is the new starter in town but likely has a short leash after getting traded twice in the past two years. Furthermore, Dotson won’t see a high target share with McLaurin on the team and has an uncertain quarterback situation. Dotson should be a second-round pick, not a first.

Second Round

Value – Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU): Overall Rank: 15th | RB5

During the pre-draft process, Pierce was a likely mid-third-round pick. However, his fantasy value shot up after the Texans spent an early fourth-round pick on him. Houston was an ideal landing spot for a rookie running back, given the current players on the roster. Veterans Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead are Pierce’s competition for the starting role in Houston. However, they shouldn’t keep Pierce off the field as a rookie. Mack has 37 touches over the past two years, while Burkhead had one game with over 47 rushing yards last season. Pierce could quickly earn the starting role and become a steal if drafted as the RB5 in rookie drafts.

Reach – Wan’Dale Robinson (WR – NYG): Overall Rank: 22nd | WR13

The Giants made two excellent picks with Kayvon Thibodeaux and Even Neal in the first round. However, their second-round pick was an absolute head-scratcher. Not only did they take Robinson over George Pickens and Skyy Moore, but the Giants took a wide receiver many had graded as a third-round prospect. Furthermore, Robinson is primarily a slot receiver. The problem is the Giants already have Sterling Shepard and last year’s first-round pick Kadarius Toney, both of whom are at their best in the slot. With Daniel Jones under center and a crowded wide receiver room, Robinson will likely struggle to be fantasy relevant early in his career.

Third Round

Value – Romeo Doubs (WR – GB): Overall Rank: 31st | WR17

After trading away Davante Adams, every mock draft had the Packers taking a wide receiver in the first round. Instead, the Packers waited till Day 2 to grab a wide receiver and traded up for Christian Watson. While Watson gets all the hype as the Packer wide receiver to draft, Doubs is a sneaky good third-round target. He had over 2,100 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns in his final 20 games at Nevada. Doubs won’t turn into the next Adams, but he could become the new No. 1 wide receiver in Green Bay this season. Once you get to the third round, it’s all about upside. No wide receiver has more upside than Doubs in this range.

Reach – Tyquan Thornton (WR – NE): Overall Rank: 30th | WR16

Not only was Thornton a reach during the draft, but he is a reach if taken in the third round of your rookie draft. The Patriots took Thornton ahead of Pickens and Moore. Not only will they regret that decision, but fantasy players who draft Thornton in the third round will, too. New England is a run-first offense, and they also added DeVante Parker earlier this offseason. With Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor, and the two tight ends on the roster, Thornton will struggle to earn snaps and targets. Doubs is just one spot behind him in the rankings and has more upside and arguably a safer floor than Thornton.

Fourth Round

Value – Keaontay Ingram (RB – ARI): Overall Rank: 43rd | RB16

Arizona had to make some decisions this offseason at the running back position. They re-signed James Conner before free agency started and let Chase Edmonds walk. Behind Conner on the depth chart are Eno Benjamin and Ingram. While the Cardinals claim they love Benjamin, all 34 of his career rushing attempts came last year. He has played primarily on special teams so far in his career. Despite his sixth-round selection, Ingram is a solid running back. During his time at Texas, Ingram was a potential Day 2 pick before transferring to USC. When Conner gets hurt, Ingram is the handcuff you want to own. During the weeks that Conner is out, Ingram will have mid RB2 value.

Reach – Jeremy Ruckert (TE – NYJ): Overall Rank: 42nd | TE4

The Jets had arguably the best draft of any team this year. However, taking Ruckert in the third round made no sense after signing C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin in free agency. The two veterans each signed a three-year deal worth at least $20 million. Furthermore, the Jets can’t get out of either deal till after the 2023 season. Even if Ruckert can climb his way up the depth chart ahead of the two veterans, he’s unlikely to earn a meaningful target share. The Jets have several talented wide receivers on the roster with Garret Wilson, Elijah Moore, and Corey Davis. Ruckert might have an impactful role for the Jets, but he isn’t worth drafting in rookie drafts.

CTAs


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Google Play | Spotify | Stitcher | TuneIn | RSS | YouTube

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

More Articles

Must-Have Fantasy Football Draft Picks: Erickson’s Top Targets (2024)

Must-Have Fantasy Football Draft Picks: Erickson’s Top Targets (2024)

fp-headshot by Andrew Erickson | 1 min read
3 Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid (2024)

3 Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid (2024)

fp-headshot by Michael Moore | 4 min read
Video: Will Jonathan Taylor Outperform His Ranks? (2024 Fantasy Football)

Video: Will Jonathan Taylor Outperform His Ranks? (2024 Fantasy Football)

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 2 min read
Dynasty Draft Primer: NFC East (2024 Fantasy Football)

Dynasty Draft Primer: NFC East (2024 Fantasy Football)

fp-headshot by Bo McBrayer | 5 min read

About Author

Hide

Current Article

3 min read

Must-Have Fantasy Football Draft Picks: Erickson’s Top Targets (2024)

Next Up - Must-Have Fantasy Football Draft Picks: Erickson’s Top Targets (2024)

Next Article