Let’s take a look at quarterbacks our expert consensus likes less than ADP.
And also check out players our experts like more than ADP:
- 5 Running Backs Experts Like More Than ADP
- 5 Wide Receivers Experts Like More Than ADP
- 5 Quarterbacks Experts Like More Than ADP
- 5 Tight Ends Experts Like More Than ADP
Rankings noted using FantasyPros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and Consensus ADP.
4 Quarterbacks Experts Like Less Than ADP
Patrick Mahomes (KC)
ECR QB3| ADP QB2
Despite the ups-and-downs of the KC Chiefs offense as a response to the Cover 2 defense, Patrick Mahomes was as stellar as ever from a fantasy perspective. The former MVP ranked fourth in fantasy points per game (22.0) tying Justin Herbert with 12 weekly top-12 QB finishes. Still, Mahomes averaged fewer fantasy points per game than in 2020 (25.2).
Additionally, the loss of Tyreek Hill cannot be ignored heading into 2022. The duo ranks second in combined passing touchdowns (41) since 2016 – despite Mahomes not becoming the starter until 2018. Mahomes can’t totally be written off as a top-five fantasy option – QB4 without Hill through the first five weeks of 2019 averaging 25 fantasy points per game – but there’s real concern about his top-tier weekly ceiling without Hill.
Especially coming off a season where he posted a career-low PFF passing grade (77.5) and career high in interceptions (16). He’s likely being overvalued as the QB2 in early best ball drafts on name recognition alone.
Joe Burrow (CIN)
ECR QB7 | ADP QB6
Joe Burrow finished the regular season as PFF’s highest-graded passer (91.2) while also ranking first in super sticky stats like passing grade from a clean pocket (94.6) and passing grade throwing at the intermediate level (95.6). He finished the season as the QB8 averaging just north of 20.5 fantasy points per game.
The Bengals quarterback has undoubtedly entered the conversation as one of the league’s best real-life NFL passers, but might be slightly overvalued based on early best ball ADP with impending regression. He’s the QB6 despite finishing as a top-6 fantasy quarterback just thrice in 2021.
No quarterback scored more fantasy points over expectation, which hints that regression will hit Burrow in 2022. The LSU product also rushed for just 118 yards and two TDs. He rushed for fewer yards than Mac Jones, who is notorious for being ranked low across consensus due to his lack of upside as a rusher.
Dak Prescott (DAL)
ECR QB9 | ADP QB7
With their backs up against the salary cap, the Dallas Cowboys didn’t have an offseason to remember for anybody heavily invested in Dak Prescott‘s 2022 fantasy prospects. They gave up Amari Cooper and lost two key starting offensive pieces on the offensive line with La’el Collins and Connor Williams for little return.
They did re-sign Dalton Schultz and Michael Gallup, but early reports on Gallup indicate it will be close whether he’s ready for Week 1 coming off the torn ACL. Dallas’ biggest move in free agency and the NFL Draft to combat their losses was signing former Steelers wide receiver James Washington, drafting Jalen Tolbert in Round 3 and selecting offensive tackle project Tyler Smith in Round 1.
With many other quarterbacks benefitting from better team off seasons, Prescott has fallen in my rankings well past his QB9 ADP making it less likely I draft him. He finished as the QB9 last year in points per game, and I’d argue his situation – aside from health – isn’t as ideal as it was a season ago. His rushing also hit career-low numbers in 2021.
Kirk Cousins (MIN)
ECR QB15 | ADP QB13
Kirk Cousins is the ugly duckling fantasy quarterback who found his way inside the top 12 producers (QB11, QB12) in back-to-back seasons. Cousins did so last season by directing a surprisingly up-tempo and more pass-heavy Vikings offense. Last year Minnesota was eighth and 12th in neutral pace and passing rate. With Kevin O’Connell at the controls this season, the passing rate could continue to be healthy (LAR, seventh), but the neutral pace could decline (LAR, 16th). If this happens and Adam Thielen takes a step back entering his age 32 season, Cousins will be rendered as a mid QB2.
FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings
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