A lot of time can be spent arguing about the relevance of certain stats and what they mean for fantasy football, but it’s very tricky to come up with anything positive to say about a receiver seeing fewer targets than previously. As we approach drafting season it’s a great time to look at some wide receivers who might be in line for a drop in targets in the upcoming season and how it might affect their overall fantasy output.
When Marquise Brown was traded from the Baltimore Ravens to the Arizona Cardinals it was well known that part of the reason he wanted to leave Baltimore was the run-heavy approach that left him, in his mind, under-utilized. While the Ravens and Cardinals had a similar pass-to-run ratio of around 54% in 2021, it’s clearly expected that the Ravens will regress from that going forward. The Cardinals, however, hardly pass the ball at an extremely high rate, ranking 24th in 2021, 25th in 2020 and 14th in 2019. Kliff Kingsbury’s scheme is more reliant on the run than most teams in the NFL and it has served them well over his tenure, finishing top 10 in each of the last three seasons in total rushing yards.
In 2021 Brown was targeted 146 times for 91 receptions, putting up a career-high in both those figures and yards per game (63.0). The Cardinals had no player come close to that number of targets, partly because of DeAndre Hopkins’s injury struggles, but also because of the way Kyler Murray spreads the ball around. Hopkins averaged 6.3 targets per game when healthy and the second closest was Christian Kirk with 6.1. Those figures are almost 50% less than Marquise Brown’s 9.1, which ranked 10th highest in the league amongst players to play more than five games. While Brown still warrants a higher ADP than in previous years and may live up to it, it’s very likely we see him receive fewer targets this year.
The Raiders got significantly better when they traded for Davante Adams this offseason, but it’s likely at the expense of Hunter Renfrow’s target volume, despite his breakout season in 2021. After seeing 71 and 77 targets in his first two seasons in the NFL, Renfrow made a gigantic leap up to 128. Renfrow played fantastically and showed his ability to play as a top-tier receiver, but his volume was increased at times due to Darren Waller missing over a third of the season due to injury. In games with both Waller and Renfrow playing, Renfrow saw 7.45 targets per game, and in games without Waller that jumped to 8.33. Not only will Waller be hoping to enter the season healthily, but now Renfrow finds himself competing with Davante Adams, who has commanded an average of 142 targets per season over the last six years of playing with Aaron Rodgers. Adams himself might be in line for regression in targets, but it seems much more likely it will affect Renfrow than Adams, who has year in and year out shown himself to be one of the most elite receivers in the league.
Did the Davante Adams trade HELP or HURT Hunter Renfrow?
— Alex Caruso (@AlexCaruso) March 18, 2022
Only nine receivers have had over 100 targets in each of the last three seasons, Tyler Lockett is one of those players, but that streak might be in danger this year. Pete Carroll seems intent on this team going into the season with a combination of Drew Lock and Geno Smith at quarterback, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if the team turns run-heavy this year after adding rookie Ken Walker in the draft. In 2021 Lockett saw 107 targets, which represented his lowest total since 2018 and while Lockett’s targets didn’t noticeably drop when Geno Smith replaced the injured Russell Wilson in 2021, his catchable target rate dropped from 80% with Wilson to 71% with Smith and the average quarterback dropbacks per game dropped from 33.9 to 28.0. Lockett will need to average over 6.3 targets per game if he’s to outdo 2021’s numbers, while hoping that the quality of those targets is enough to keep him fantasy relevant.
During Jaylen Waddle’s rookie season, he showed the league just how dangerous a player he can be in many different situations. Despite the offense looking miserable at times, Waddle led all rookies in targets (142), targets per game (8.9), target share (22%), red zone targets (15), routes per game (33.6) and targets per route (0.24). If it wasn’t for Ja’Maar Chase’s incredible season Jaylen Waddle would probably have gotten even more praise towards the end of last season. Unfortunately for Waddle, the situation around him has changed somewhat with the Dolphins giving up a total of five draft picks, including a first and second, to acquire Tyreek Hill. It would be incredibly surprising if Tyreek Hill doesn’t command a large target share this season, given the price the team paid for him.
Mike Gesicki also returns and has had quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s trust since Tua entered the league. With a new head coach in town, it remains to be seen how the Dolphins look under Mike McDaniel, but we can perhaps gain an idea from how he ran the offense in San Fransico where, per the rbsdm database, the 49ers ranked 29th in early-down pass rate (48.4%). If McDaniels does swing to a run-first approach and Tyreek Hill stays healthy then it’s very difficult to see Waddle reaching quite the same heights of targets as he did in 2021, but it’s still very possible he remains a good fantasy receiver and sees over 100 targets.
But with the expensive addition of veteran Tyreek Hill, it is less likely that Waddle is the No. 1 WR.
But it works in Waddle’s favor that he and Tua already have built-in rapport.
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) July 17, 2022
The Patriots had a bright start to the Mac Jones era and showed that the rookie quarterback is more than just a dink and dunk player during his rookie season, but there’s no getting away from the fact the team wants to be run-heavy, having run the ball at the seventh-highest rate in 2021. With Nelson Agholor and Jonnu Smith failing to live up to the costly contracts the Patriots gave them, Meyers was one of the bright spots on the team, leading the team with 126 targets and by far outpacing the next nearest, which was Hunter Henry with 75. While 2021 was a solid season for Meyers, the team has added DeVante Parker, who will give the team the outside element they lacked last year. Parker has struggled to stay healthy in recent years but gained targets well when fit. Jonnu Smith has also been reported to be looking more comfortable in his second year in the Patriots system and it shouldn’t surprise us if Mac Jones looks to spread the ball around more as he enters his second season with more experience in the league.
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